Multi-fingerprint detection and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas, greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol and solar forced climate change

 A multi-fingerprint analysis is applied to the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. While a single fingerprint is optimal for the detection of climate change, further tests of the statistical consistency of the detected climate change signal with model predictions for different candidate forcing mechanisms require the simultaneous application of several fingerprints. Model-predicted climate change signals are derived from three anthropogenic global warming simulations for the period 1880 to 2049 and two simulations forced by estimated changes in solar radiation from 1700 to 1992. In the first global warming simulation, the forcing is by greenhouse gas only, while in the remaining two simulations the direct influence of sulfate aerosols is also included. From the climate change signals of the greenhouse gas only and the average of the two greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol simulations, two optimized fingerprint patterns are derived by weighting the model-predicted climate change patterns towards low-noise directions. The optimized fingerprint patterns are then applied as a filter to the observed near-surface temperature trend patterns, yielding several detection variables. The space-time structure of natural climate variability needed to determine the optimal fingerprint pattern and the resultant signal-to-noise ratio of the detection variable is estimated from several multi-century control simulations with different CGCMs and from instrumental data over the last 136 y. Applying the combined greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol fingerprint in the same way as the greenhouse gas only fingerprint in a previous work, the recent 30-y trends (1966–1995) of annual mean near surface temperature are again found to represent a significant climate change at the 97.5% confidence level. However, using both the greenhouse gas and the combined forcing fingerprints in a two-pattern analysis, a substantially better agreement between observations and the climate model prediction is found for the combined forcing simulation. Anticipating that the influence of the aerosol forcing is strongest for longer term temperature trends in summer, application of the detection and attribution test to the latest observed 50-y trend pattern of summer temperature yielded statistical consistency with the greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol simulation with respect to both the pattern and amplitude of the signal. In contrast, the observations are inconsistent with the greenhouse-gas only climate change signal at a 95% confidence level for all estimates of climate variability. The observed trend 1943–1992 is furthermore inconsistent with a hypothesized solar radiation change alone at an estimated 90% confidence level. Thus, in contrast to the single pattern analysis, the two pattern analysis is able to discriminate between different forcing hypotheses in the observed climate change signal. The results are subject to uncertainties associated with the forcing history, which is poorly known for the solar and aerosol forcing, the possible omission of other important forcings, and inevitable model errors in the computation of the response to the forcing. Further uncertainties in the estimated significance levels arise from the use of model internal variability simulations and relatively short instrumental observations (after subtraction of an estimated greenhouse gas signal) to estimate the natural climate variability. The resulting confidence limits accordingly vary for different estimates using different variability data. Despite these uncertainties, however, we consider our results sufficiently robust to have some confidence in our finding that the observed climate change is consistent with a combined greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing, but inconsistent with greenhouse gas or solar forcing alone. Received: 28 April 1996 / Accepted: 27 January 1997     

Colouration Phenomena of Mediterranean Blennies (Pisces,Blenniidae)

Abstract. The blennies of the Mediterranean Sea were observed in nature by snorkeling and SCUBA diving. Particular attention was paid to their changeable basic patterns and colouring alternations as effected by ecological and ethological factors. Additionally, the tendency for colour change was tested in differently coloured tanks. These experiments failed to demonstrate the striking adaptations seen in the natural environment, except for a remarkable reaction to black and white. The summary of all known reports is supported by colour illustrations; the problems of the colouring alternations are discussed.     

Atmospheric deposition of cadmium in the northeastern USA

Lake sediment cores, dated by ²¹⁰Pb, were collected from Spectacle Pond (SP), Massachusetts, and Side Pistol Lake (SPL) and Sargent Mountain Pond (SMP), Maine, USA. SP is a kettle seepage lake in granitic sand and gravel. SMP is a drainage pond on granite with little soil in the small watershed. SPL is a drainage lake in granitic till. The three cores were analyzed for total Cd. For SP and SMP, maximum concentrations of 1.7 and 3.9 mg/kg, four and eight times background concentrations, respectively, occur in the late 1960s. Accumulation rates reach maximum values concurrently with concentration and are 0.054 and 0.016 μg/cm²/a, more than 10 times background. Concentration and accumulation rate age relationships in SMP and SP are similar for background values, timing and magnitude of increase to peak values, and the decrease nearly to background values since about 1975. The chemical response to decreased atmospheric deposition lags in SPL sediment. Kettle-like lakes more clearly indicate changes in atmospheric deposition than drainage lakes.     

Possible regional changes in precipitation regimes in northern Eurasia in the 21st century

Possible changes in various characteristics of precipitation (its amount, intensity, probability of days with precipitation, and its extreme regimes) in the regions of northern Eurasia in the 21st century are assessed. The data for the analysis were obtained from simulations using global climatic models: atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM and an intermediate-complexity model developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS. The simulations were performed for the SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 scenarios of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The results obtained from models of two generations, i.e., ECHAM5/MPI-OM and ECHAM4/OPYC3, models were compared. Detailed analysis was performed for the basins of largest Siberian rivers, the Volga River, and the Caucasian region.     

On the natural variability of the pre-industrial European climate

We suggest that climate variability in Europe for the “pre-industrial” period 1500–1900 is fundamentally a consequence of internal fluctuations of the climate system. This is because a model simulation, using fixed pre-industrial forcing, in several important aspects is consistent with recent observational reconstructions at high temporal resolution. This includes extreme warm and cold seasonal events as well as different measures of the decadal to multi-decadal variance. Significant trends of 50-year duration can be seen in the model simulation. While the global temperature is highly correlated with ENSO (El Nino- Southern Oscillation), European seasonal temperature is only weakly correlated with the global temperature broadly consistent with data from ERA-40 reanalyses. Seasonal temperature anomalies of the European land area are largely controlled by the position of the North Atlantic storm tracks. We believe the result is highly relevant for the interpretation of past observational records suggesting that the effect of external forcing appears to be of secondary importance. That variations in the solar irradiation could have been a credible cause of climate variations during the last centuries, as suggested in some previous studies, is presumably due to the fact that the models used in these studies may have underestimated the internal variability of the climate. The general interpretation from this study is that the past climate is just one of many possible realizations and thus in many respects not reproducible in its time evolution with a general circulation model but only reproducible in a statistical sense.     

Skill and reproducibility of seasonal rainfall patterns in the tropics in ECHAM-4 GCM simulations with prescribed SST

 The ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) has been integrated at T30 resolution through the period 1960–1994 forced with the observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) as compiled at the Hadley Centre (GISST2.2). Three experiments were made starting from different initial conditions. The large-scale tropical precipitation patterns simulated by the model have been studied, focusing on the skill (i.e. the capability to simulate the observed anomaly over land areas) and reproducibility (i.e. the GCM’s interannual rainfall variance that is independent from the initial conditions). Analysis of variance is used to estimate the reproducibility amongst ensemble members at each grid-box, but most emphasis is placed on large-scale patterns, as revealed by various singular value decomposition analyses (SVDAs), between observed and model fields (OM analyses) and amongst the different model runs (MM analyses). Generally, it is found that the first model mode in the MM analysis is very similar to that in the OM analysis, suggesting the model mode with strongest reproducibility is also the mode which tallies best with observations. For the global tropics, the first MM mode is highly reproducible (external variance above 90%) and the first OM couplet is very skillful (correlation between observed and model SVDA time series is over 0.84). The extent to which skill and reproducibility is related to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been investigated by comparing the OM and MM time series with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). For the global tropics, most of the OM and MM variance is common with the SOI, though in boreal summer, the first modes do also have some clear independence from the SOI. The analyses were repeated at the regional scale for Oceania, tropical America, tropical Africa and tropical Southeast Asia. A highly reproducible mode is found in all cases except October-December in Africa. Skill, while always positive, is more variable, strongest for Oceania and tropical America and weakest for Africa. Comparisons with the SOI suggest skill in tropical America and tropical Africa has substantial components that are independent of the SOI, especially in boreal spring and summer when the tropical Atlantic SSTs are strongly related to the leading OM and MM time series. Received: 1 January 1997 / Accepted: 28 July 1997     

Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979–1988

 As a part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), the behaviour of 15 general circulation models has been analysed in order to diagnose and compare the ability of the different models in simulating Northern Hemisphere midlatitude atmospheric blocking. In accordance with the established AMIP procedure, the 10-year model integrations were performed using prescribed, time-evolving monthly mean observed SSTs spanning the period January 1979–December 1988. Atmospheric observational data (ECMWF analyses) over the same period have been also used to verify the models results. The models involved in this comparison represent a wide spectrum of model complexity, with different horizontal and vertical resolution, numerical techniques and physical parametrizations, and exhibit large differences in blocking behaviour. Nevertheless, a few common features can be found, such as the general tendency to underestimate both blocking frequency and the average duration of blocks. The problem of the possible relationship between model blocking and model systematic errors has also been assessed, although without resorting to ad-hoc numerical experimentation it is impossible to relate with certainty particular model deficiencies in representing blocking to precise parts of the model formulation. Received: 16 July 1997/Accepted: 20 October 1997     

Estimating the PPH-bias for simulations of convective and stratiform clouds

The plane parallel homogeneous (PPH) approximation is known to generate systematic errors in the computation of reflectivity and transmissivity of a horizontally inhomogeneous cloud field. This PPH-bias is determined for two cloud fields, a stratocumulus and a shallow convective cloud scene, which have been simulated using a cloud resolving model. The independent column approximation has been applied as reference and a PPH analogue has been interpolated from the original cloud data. In order to correct for the bias the effective thickness approach (ETA) has been employed. For the two cloud simulations, the corresponding reduction factors have been determined.     

A time-slice experiment with the ECHAM4 AGCM at high resolution: the impact of horizontal resolution on annual mean climate change

 The climate response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, prescribed according to the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) scenario IS92a, is studied in two model simulations. The reference simulation is a transient response experiment performed with a medium-resolution (T42) coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and ocean (ECHAM4/OPYC) developed at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. For two 30-year “time slices”, representing the present-day climate and the future climate at the time of effective CO₂ doubling, the annual mean climate states are compared with those obtained from the high-resolution (T106) ECHAM4 model forced with monthly sea surface temperatures and sea-ice from the coupled model. The large-scale changes in temperature, zonal wind, sea-level pressure and precipitation are broadly similar. This applies, in particular, to the respective zonal means. In general, except for precipitation, the responses in the time-slice experiments are slightly weaker than those simulated in the coupled model due to a smaller effect of the horizontal resolution on the simulations of the future (warmer) period than on the simulations of the present period. On a regional scale, the impact of horizontal resolution is smaller in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere, where the response differences are caused mainly by changes in the positions of the stationary waves. Although the precipitation responses are broadly similar, there are few notable exceptions such as a more pronounced maximum over the equatorial oceans in the T106 experiment but a weaker response over low-latitude land areas. Differences in precipitation response are found especially in areas with strong topographical control such as South America, for example. Received: 17 January 2000 / Accepted: 7 July 2000     

ENSIP: the El Niño simulation intercomparison project

An ensemble of twenty four coupled ocean-atmosphere models has been compared with respect to their performance in the tropical Pacific. The coupled models span a large portion of the parameter space and differ in many respects. The intercomparison includes TOGA (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere)-type models consisting of high-resolution tropical ocean models and coarse-resolution global atmosphere models, coarse-resolution global coupled models, and a few global coupled models with high resolution in the equatorial region in their ocean components. The performance of the annual mean state, the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability are investigated. The primary quantity analysed is sea surface temperature (SST). Additionally, the evolution of interannual heat content variations in the tropical Pacific and the relationship between the interannual SST variations in the equatorial Pacific to fluctuations in the strength of the Indian summer monsoon are investigated. The results can be summarised as follows: almost all models (even those employing flux corrections) still have problems in simulating the SST climatology, although some improvements are found relative to earlier intercomparison studies. Only a few of the coupled models simulate the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in terms of gross equatorial SST anomalies realistically. In particular, many models overestimate the variability in the western equatorial Pacific and underestimate the SST variability in the east. The evolution of interannual heat content variations is similar to that observed in almost all models. Finally, the majority of the models show a strong connection between ENSO and the strength of the Indian summer monsoon.