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排序方式: 共有168条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
J. M. Gregory J. A. Church G. J. Boer K. W. Dixon G. M. Flato D. R. Jackett J. A. Lowe S. P. O'Farrell E. Roeckner G. L. Russell R. J. Stouffer M. Winton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):225-240
Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present
an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes
simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario
IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal
expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might
not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout
the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts
to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the
ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as
much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack
of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need
for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements.
Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001 相似文献
2.
Laurence P. Madin Stephen M. Bollens Erich Horgan Mari Butler Jeffrey Runge Barbara K. Sullivan Grace Klein-Macphee Edward Durbin Ann G. Durbin Donna Van Keuren Stphane Plourde Ann Bucklin M. Elizabeth Clarke 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》1996,43(7-8)
Hydroids are typically attached, benthic cnidarians that feed on a variety of small prey. During sampling on Georges Bank in spring 1994, we found huge numbers of hydroids suspended in the plankton. They fed on young stages of copepods that are an important prey for fish, as well as on young fish themselves. Two independent methods were used to estimate feeding rates of the hydroids; both indicate that the hydroids are capable of consuming from 50% to over 100% of the daily production of young copepods. These results suggest that hydroids can have a profound effect on the population dynamics of zooplankton and young fish on Georges Bank. 相似文献
3.
Regional magnitudes and patterns of Arctic winter climate changes in consequence of regime changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are analyzed using a regional atmospheric climate model. The regional model has been driven with data of positive and negative NAO phases from a control simulation as well as from a time-dependent greenhouse gas and aerosol scenario simulation. Both global model simulations include a quite realistic interannual variability of the NAO with pronounced decadal regime changes and no or rather weak long-term NAO trends. The results indicate that the effects of NAO regime changes on Arctic winter temperatures and precipitation are regionally significant over most of northwestern Eurasia and parts of Greenland. In this regard, mean winter temperature variations of up to 6 K may occur over northern Europe. Precipitation and synoptic variability are also regionally modified by NAO regime changes, but not as significantly as temperatures. However, the climate changes associated with the NAO are in some regions clearly stronger than those attributed to enhanced greenhouse gases and aerosols, indicating that projected global changes of the atmospheric composition and internal circulation changes are competing with each other in their importance for the Arctic climate evolution in the near future. The knowledge of the future NAO trend on decadal and longer time scales appears to be vitally important in terms of a regional assessment of climate scenarios for the Arctic. 相似文献
4.
Macropores are subsurface connected void spaces caused by processes such as fracture of soils, micro‐erosion, and fauna burrows. They are common near streams (e.g. hyporheic and riparian zones) and may act as preferential flow paths between surface and groundwaters, affecting hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. We tested the hydrologic function of macropores by constructing an artificial macropore within the saturated zone of a meander bend (open macropore, ‘OM’) and later filling its upstream end (partially filled macropore, ‘PFM’). For each treatment, we injected saline tracer at an upgradient monitoring well within the meander and monitored downgradient hydraulics and tracer transport. Pressure transducers in monitoring wells indicated hydraulic gradients within the meander were 32% higher perpendicular to and 6% higher parallel to the macropore for the OM than for the PFM. Additionally, hydraulic conductivities measured via falling head tests were 29 to 550 times higher along the macropore than in nearby sediment. We used electrical conductivity probes in wells and electrical resistivity imaging to track solute transport. Transport velocities through the meander were on average 9 and 21% higher (per temporal moment analysis and observed tracer peak, respectively) for the OM than for the PFM. Furthermore, temporal moments of tracer breakthrough analysis indicated downgradient longitudinal dispersion and breakthrough tracer curve tailing were on average 234% and 182% higher for the OM, respectively. This suggests the OM enabled solute transport at overall shorter timescales than the matrix but also increased tailing. Our results demonstrate the importance of macropores to meander bend hydrology and solute transport. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Electrical resistivity imaging of hydrologic flow through surface coal mine valley fills with comparison to other landforms
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Surface coal mining has altered land cover, near‐surface geologic structure, and hydrologic processes of large areas in central Appalachia, USA. These alterations are associated with changes in water quality such as elevated total‐dissolved solids, which is usually measured via its surrogate, specific conductance (SC). The SC of valley fill effluent streams is a function of fill construction methods, materials, and age; yet hydrologic studies that relate these variables to water quality are sparse due to the difficulty of conducting traditional hydrologic studies in mined landscapes. We used electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) to visualize the subsurface geologic structure and hydrologic flow paths within a valley fill. ERI is a noninvasive geophysical technique that maps spatiotemporal changes in resistivity of the subsurface. We paired ERI with artificial rainfall experiments to track infiltrated water as it moved through the valley fill. Results indicate that ERI can be used to identify subsurface geologic structure and track advancing wetting fronts or preferential flow paths. Our results suggest that the upper portion of the fill contains significant fines, whereas the deeper profile is primarily large rocks and void spaces. Water tended to pond on the surface of compacted areas until it reached preferential flow paths, where it appeared to infiltrate quickly down to >15 m depth in 75 min. ERI applications can improve understanding of how fill construction techniques influence subsurface water movement, and in turn may aid in the development of valley fill construction methods to reduce water quality effects. 相似文献
6.
Marc H. Taylor Jorge Tam Vernica Blaskovic Pepe Espinoza R. Michael Balln Claudia Wosnitza-Mendo Juan Argüelles Erich Díaz Sara Purca Noemi Ochoa Patricia Ayn Elisa Goya Dimitri Gutirrez Luis Quipuzcoa Matthias Wolff 《Progress in Oceanography》2008,79(2-4):366
The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported. 相似文献
7.
8.
Erich Bäuerle 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1994,56(2):145-160
An episode of velocity measurements in the epilimnion at a midlake station in Lake Überlingen and taken from the campaign in October 1972 discloses a uni-nodal Poincaré-type baroclinic mode response with a 4 h period. We discuss the data and interpret it in terms of a two-layered linear wave model on the rotating Earth.
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9.
10.
A new cloud microphysics scheme including a prognostic treatment of cloud ice (PCI) is developed to yield a more physically based representation of the components of the atmospheric moisture budget in the general circulation model ECHAM. The new approach considers cloud water and cloud ice as separate prognostic variables. The precipitation formation scheme for warm clouds distinguishes between maritime and continental clouds by considering the cloud droplet number concentration, in addition to the liquid water content. Based on several observational data sets, the cloud droplet number concentration is derived from the sulfate aerosol mass concentration as given from the sulfur cycle simulated by ECHAM. Results obtained with the new scheme are compared to satellite observations and in situ measurements of cloud physical and radiative properties. In general, the standard model ECHAM4 and also PCI capture the overall features, and the simulated results usually lie within the range of observed uncertainty. As compared to ECHAM4, only slight improvements are achieved with the new scheme. For example, the overestimated liquid water path and total cloud cover over convectively active regions are reduced in PCI. On the other hand, some shortcomings of the standard model such as underestimated shortwave cloud forcing over the extratropical oceans of the respective summer hemisphere are more pronounced in PCI.This paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 4–9 Sept. 1995 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil. 相似文献