Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Harbinger of Spring Floods in the Mouth Areas of the North-Eastern European Rivers

Water Resources - Based on 1965–2020 series we have shown relationships between the features of the water runoff of the spring flood in mouths of large rivers of North-Eastern Europe and the...     

Statistical properties of aftershock rate decay: Implications for the assessment of continuing activity

Aftershock rates seem to follow a power law decay, but the assessment of the aftershock frequency immediately after an earthquake, as well as during the evolution of a seismic excitation remains a demand for the imminent seismic hazard. The purpose of this work is to study the temporal distribution of triggered earthquakes in short time scales following a strong event, and thus a multiple seismic sequence was chosen for this purpose. Statistical models are applied to the 1981 Corinth Gulf sequence, comprising three strong (M = 6.7, M = 6.5, and M = 6.3) events between 24 February and 4 March. The non-homogeneous Poisson process outperforms the simple Poisson process in order to model the aftershock sequence, whereas the Weibull process is more appropriate to capture the features of the short-term behavior, but not the most proper for describing the seismicity in long term. The aftershock data defines a smooth curve of the declining rate and a long-tail theoretical model is more appropriate to fit the data than a rapidly declining exponential function, as supported by the quantitative results derived from the survival function. An autoregressive model is also applied to the seismic sequence, shedding more light on the stationarity of the time series.     

Numerical analysis for random temperature fields of embankment in cold regions

The stochastic finite element equations for random temperature are obtained using the first-order per-turbation technique taking into account the random thermal properties and boundary condition, based on heat transfer variational principle. The local average method for 2-D is used to discretize random fields. Then, the random temperature fields of embankment in cold regions are investigated on condi-tion that the thermal properties and boundary condition are taken as random fields, respectively, by using the program, which is written by the methods. The expected value of temperature field and the standard deviation of the temperature field of embankment in cold regions are obtained and analyzed.     

A system for line profile studies at the 150-foot tower on Mount Wilson

We describe enhancements to the hardware and software for the 150-foot tower system on Mt. Wilson which make possible the acquisition of high precision line profile measurements. This system utilizes the 75-foot pit spectrograph with a photomultiplier detector system to scan line profiles repeatedly in order to study variations induced by the passage of waves vertically through the solar atmosphere. Oscillations of line profile parameters with an amplitude as low as 1.7 m s^–1 have been detected with this system using integrated sunlight. Phase relations between oscillations of different parts of the line profile are appropriate to upward energy transport. Consistent with the previous conclusion by Mein and Schmieder (1981), we find that the magnitude of the energy transport is compatible with the 5-min oscillations making an important contribution to the heating of the low chromosphere.The Mount Wilson Observatory is operated by the Mount Wilson Institute under agreement with the Carnegie Institution of Washington.     

Praesepe – two merging clusters?

A membership catalogue for Praesepe was compiled and split into four mass bins. A contour plot indicates the presence of a subcluster some 3 pc from the centre of the cluster, of approximately 30 M_⊙. A tidally truncated King profile was fitted to the remainder of the cluster and the tidal radius is found to be 12.1 pc; the mass of the cluster (excluding the subcluster) is 630 M_⊙. From the calculated velocity dispersions we find that the cluster appears to have too much kinetic energy and should be rapidly disintegrating. X-ray data suggest that there may be an age spread between the main core stars and the subcluster stars. This leads us to the conclusion that Praesepe is two merging clusters.     

Determination of solar wind elemental abundances from M/Q observations during three periods in 1980

Mass spectra in the range 2 ≦ M/Q ≦ 3 provided by a high resolution mode of the ISEE-3 Plasma Composition Experiment were evaluated for three selected periods during early 1980. The observed Ne/O ratios are compatible with estimated solar abundance ratios. In two of the three periods, the He/Ne-ratios agree with the Apollo foil results. Freezing-in temperatures for oxygen are similar to those obtained by other groups. Possible reasons for an unexpectedly high flux at M/Q = 2.4 are discussed.     

Quasi-Biennial Oscillations of Global Solar-Activity Indices

Quasi-biennial oscillations of solar activity are investigated using several global indices. The Singular Spectrum Analysis is used to separate out and study quasi-biennial oscillations; this method is one of the modifications of the main components method. The principal components of the solar cycle are stable 11-year, secular, and quasi-biennial variations. The periods and shapes of individual variations in each quasi-biennial train depend on the length and power of the particular 11-year cycle.     

Predictions for the clustering properties of the Lyman-alpha forest – I. One-point statistics

We present predictions for the one-point probability distribution and cumulants of the transmitted QSO flux in the high redshift Lyman- α forest. We make use of the correlation between the Lyman- α optical depth and the underlying matter density predicted by gravitational instability theory and seen in numerical hydrodynamic simulations. We have modelled the growth of matter fluctuations using the non-linear shear‐free dynamics, an approximation which reproduces well the results of perturbation theory for the cumulants in the linear and weakly non-linear clustering regime. As high matter overdensities tend to saturate in spectra, the statistics of the flux distribution are dominated by weakly non-linear overdensities. As a result, our analytic approach can produce accurate predictions, when tested against N -body simulation results, even when the underlying matter field has root-mean-square fluctuations larger than unity. Our treatment can be applied to either Gaussian or non-Gaussian initial conditions. Here we concentrate on the former case, but also include a study of a specific non-Gaussian model. We discuss how the methods and predictions we present can be used as a tool to study the generic clustering properties of the Lyman- α forest at high redshift. With such an approach, rather than concentrating on simulating specific cosmological models, we may be in a position to directly test our assumptions for the Gaussian nature of the initial conditions, and the gravitational instability origin of structure itself. In a separate paper we present results for two-point statistics.