The impact of extra-tropical transitioning on storm surge and waves in catastrophe risk modelling: application to the Japanese coastline

Catastrophe risk models are used to assess and manage the economic and societal impacts of natural perils such as tropical cyclones. Large ensembles of event simulations are required to generate useful model output. For example, to estimate the risk due to wind-driven storm surge and waves in tropical cyclone risk models, computationally efficient parametric representations of the wind forcing are required to enable the generation of large ensembles. This paper presents new results on the impact of including explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning in parametric wind models used to force storm surge and wave simulations in a catastrophe risk modelling context. Extra-tropical transitioning is particularly important in modelling risk on the Japanese coastline, as roughly 40 % of typhoons hitting the Japanese mainland are transitioning before landfall. Using both a historical and idealized track set, we compare maximum storm surge and wave footprints along the Japanese coastline for models that include, and do not include, explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning. We find that the inclusion of extra-tropical transitioning leads to lower storm surge (10–20 %) and waves (5–15 %) on the southern Japanese coast, with significantly higher storm surge and waves along the northern coast (25–50 %). The results of this paper demonstrate that useful risk assessment of coastal flood risk in Japan must consider the extra-tropical transitioning process.     

Weakening of gneiss surfaces colonized by endolithic lichens in the temperate climate area of northwest Italy

A role of lithobionts in geomorphological processes is increasingly argued, but the spatio‐temporal scale of their impact is largely unexplored in many ecosystems. This study first characterizes in the temperate zone (northwest Italy) the relationships between lithobiontic communities including endolithic lichens and the hardness of their siliceous rock substrate (Villarfocchiardo Gneiss). The communities are characterized, on humid and xeric quarry surfaces exposed for decades and natural outcrops exposed for centuries, in terms of lichen and microbial constituents, using a combined morphological and molecular approach, and with regard to their development on and within the gneiss. A lichen species belonging to Acarosporaceae (Polysporina‐Sarcogyne‐Acarospora group, needing taxonomic revision) chasmoendolithically colonizes both the humid and xeric quarry surfaces, on which epilithic cyanobacterial biofilms and epilithic pioneer lichens respectively occur. Light and electron microscopic observations show the development of the endolithic thalli within rock microcracks and the hyphal penetration along crystal boundaries down to depths of 1 to 3 mm, more pronounced within the humid surfaces. Such colonization patterns are likely related to biogeophysical deterioration, while no chemical alteration characterizes minerals contacted by the endolithic lichen. By contrast, on natural outcrops, where the endolithic colonization is negligible, a reddish rind below epilithic lichens indicates chemical weathering processes. Schmidt Hammer measurements highlight that the endolithic lichens deeply affect the hardness of the gneiss (down to ?60% with respect to fresh controls and surfaces only colonized by cyanobacteria), exerting a significantly higher weakening effect with respect to the associated epilithic lithobionts. The phenomenon is more remarkable on humid than on xeric quarry surfaces and natural outcrops, where epilithic lichens are likely involved in long‐term hardening processes supporting surface stabilization. Endolithic lichens are thus active biogeomorphological agents at the upper millimetric layer of siliceous rocks in temperate areas, exerting their weakening action during the early decade‐scaled stages of surface exposure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of African growth on future global energy,emissions, and regional development

Today Africa is a small emitter, but it has a large and faster-than-average growing population and per capita income that could drive future energy demand and, if unconstrained, emissions. This paper uses a multi-model comparison to characterize the potential future energy development for Continental and Sub-Saharan Africa under different assumptions about population and income. Our results suggest that population and economic growth rates will strongly influence Africa’s future energy use and emissions. We show that affluence is only one face of the medal and the range of future emissions is also contingent on technological and political factors. Higher energy intensity improvements occur when Africa grows faster. In contrast, climate intensity varies less with economic growth and it is mostly driven by climate policy. African emissions could account for between 5 % and 20 % of global emissions, with Sub-Saharan Africa contributing between 4 % and 10 % of world emissions in 2100. In all scenarios considered, affluence levels remain low until the middle of the century, suggesting that the population could remain dependent on traditional bioenergy to meet most residential energy needs. Although the share of electricity in final energy, electric capacity and electricity use per capita all rise with income, even by mid-century they do not reach levels observed in developed countries today.     

Emplacement of massive deposits by sheet flow

Turbidity current and coastal storm deposits are commonly characterized by a basal sandy massive (structureless) unit overlying an erosional surface and underlying a parallel or cross-laminated unit. Similar sequences have been recently identified in fluvial settings as well. Notwithstanding field, laboratory and numerical studies, the mechanisms for emplacement of these massive basal units are still under debate. It is well accepted that the sequence considered here can be deposited by waning-energy flows, and that the parallel-laminated units are deposited under transport conditions corresponding to upper plane bed at the dune–antidune transition. Thus, transport conditions that are more intense than those at the dune–antidune transition should deposit massive units. This study presents experimental, open-channel flow results showing that sandy massive units can be the result of gradual deposition from a thick bedload layer of colliding grains called sheet flow layer. When this layer forms with relatively coarse sand, the non-dimensional bed shear stress associated with skin friction, the Shields number, is larger than a threshold value approximately equal to 0·4. For values of the Shields number smaller than 0·4 the sheet flow layer disappeared, sediment was transported by a standard bedload layer one or two grain diameters thick, and the bed configuration was characterized by downstream migrating antidunes and washed out dunes. Parallel laminae were found in deposits emplaced with standard bedload transport demonstrating that the same dilute flow can gradually deposit the basal and the parallel-laminated unit in presence of traction at the depositional boundary. Further, the experiments suggested that two different types of upper plane bed conditions can be defined, one associated with standard bedload transport at the dune–antidune transition, and the other associated with bedload transport in sheet flow mode at the transition between upstream and downstream migrating antidunes.     

A novel nuclear forensic tool involving deposit type normalized rare earth element signatures

Identifying the provenance of uranium‐rich materials is a critical objective of nuclear forensic analysis. Rare earth element (REE) distributions within uranium ores are well‐established forensic indicators, but quantifying and correlating trace element signatures for U ores to known deposits has thus far involved intricate statistical analyses. This study reports average chondrite normalized (CN)‐REE signatures for important U deposit types worldwide, which are then employed to evaluate U ore paragenesis using a simple linear regression analysis. This technique provides a straightforward method that can aid in determining the deposit type of U ores based on their REE abundances, and combined with other forensic indicators (e.g. radiogenic isotope signatures) can provide essential provenance information for nuclear materials.     

On the regional distribution of mitigation costs in a global cap-and-trade regime

This paper analyzes the regional distribution of climate change mitigation costs in a global cap-and-trade regime. Four stylized burden-sharing rules are considered, ranging from GDP-based permit allocations to schemes that foresee a long-term convergence of per-capita emission permits. The comparison of results from three structurally different hybrid, integrated energy-economy models allows us to derive robust insights as well as identify sources of uncertainty with respect to the regional distribution of the costs of climate change mitigation. We find that regional costs of climate change mitigation may deviate substantially from the global mean. For all models, the mitigation cost average of the four scenarios is higher for China than for the other macro-regions considered. Furthermore, China suffers above-world-average mitigation costs for most burden-sharing rules in the long-term. A decomposition of mitigation costs into (a) primary (domestic) abatement costs and (b) permit trade effects, reveals that the large uncertainty about the future development of carbon prices results in substantial uncertainties about the financial transfers associated with carbon trade for a given allocation scheme. This variation also implies large uncertainty about the regional distribution of climate policy costs.     

Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways

While the international community has agreed on the long-term target of limiting global warming to no more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, only a few concrete climate policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been implemented. We use a set of three global integrated assessment models to analyze the implications of current climate policies on long-term mitigation targets. We define a weak-policy baseline scenario, which extrapolates the current policy environment by assuming that the global climate regime remains fragmented and that emission reduction efforts remain unambitious in most of the world’s regions. These scenarios clearly fall short of limiting warming to 2 °C. We investigate the cost and achievability of the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO₂e by 2100, if countries follow the weak policy pathway until 2020 or 2030 before pursuing the long-term mitigation target with global cooperative action. We find that after a deferral of ambitious action the 450 ppm CO₂e is only achievable with a radical up-scaling of efforts after target adoption. This has severe effects on transformation pathways and exacerbates the challenges of climate stabilization, in particular for a delay of cooperative action until 2030. Specifically, reaching the target with weak near-term action implies (a) faster and more aggressive transformations of energy systems in the medium term, (b) more stranded investments in fossil-based capacities, (c) higher long-term mitigation costs and carbon prices and (d) stronger transitional economic impacts, rendering the political feasibility of such pathways questionable.     

Global energy security under different climate policies,GDP growth rates and fossil resource availabilities

Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates energy security under several global energy scenarios, modeled in the REMIND and WITCH integrated assessment models. The paper examines the effects of long-term climate policies on energy security under different assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel availability. It uses a systematic energy security assessment framework and a set of global and regional indicators for risks associated with energy trade and resilience associated with diversity of energy options. The analysis shows that climate policies significantly reduce the risks and increase the resilience of energy systems in the first half of the century. Climate policies also make energy supply, energy mix, and energy trade less dependent upon assumptions of fossil resource availability and GDP growth, and thus more predictable than in the baseline scenarios.     

Downstream lightening and upward heavying: Experiments with sediments differing in density

Sorting and selective transport of particles by material density is important for understanding a wide range of processes, including the formation of mineral placers, deposition of mine tailings and routing of tracers and contaminants. This article describes an experimental study of the transport of mixtures of particles of differing density in a sediment‐feed flume. During the runs, a downstream prograding wedge‐shaped deposit was formed. Results show two sorting processes: (i) longitudinal sorting characterized by preferential deposition of heavy particles in the upstream part of the deposit – downstream lightening; and (ii) vertical sorting with less dense particles preferentially deposited in the lowermost portion of the migrating front – upward heavying. Downstream lightening is the analogue of the well‐known downstream fining observed in the more studied case of mixtures of heterogeneous size with the same density. In both cases, the lighter particles are carried further downstream than the heavier particles. Upward heavying is unexpected when compared with deposits of heterogeneous size and same‐density particles, where the heaviest (i.e. coarsest) particles are deposited in the lowermost part of the front. The physical mechanism underlying this upward heavying might be related to the physics of gravity‐driven granular flows; the front of the deposit acts like a dense granular flow down an inclined plane. In this case, the denser particles settle away from the free surface and at the top of the heap, while the lighter particles flow to the bottom. As the front of the deposit advances, this progressively gives rise to an upward heavying pattern. The application of classical surface‐based fractional bedload transport models suggests that equal mobility is not approached in the case of mixtures of particles with uniform size and different densities. This study hypothesizes that other mechanics related to the physics of the segregation processes in these systems contribute to these results.     

Petrology and oxygen isotopic compositions of calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions in primitive CO3.0‐3.1 chondrites

The petrologic and oxygen isotopic characteristics of calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions (CAIs) in CO chondrites were further constrained by studying CAIs from six primitive CO3.0‐3.1 chondrites, including two Antarctic meteorites (DOM 08006 and MIL 090010), three hot desert meteorites (NWA 10493, NWA 10498, and NWA 7892), and the Colony meteorite. The CAIs can be divided into hibonite‐bearing inclusions (spinel‐hibonite spherules, monomineralic grains, hibonite‐pyroxene microspherules, and irregular/nodular objects), grossite‐bearing inclusions (monomineralic grains, grossite‐melilite microspherules, and irregular/nodular objects), melilite‐rich inclusions (fluffy Type A, compact type A, monomineralic grains, and igneous fragments), spinel‐pyroxene inclusions (fluffy objects resembling fine‐grained spinel‐rich inclusions in CV chondrites and nodular/banded objects resembling those in CM chondrites), and pyroxene‐anorthite inclusions. They are typically small (98.4 ± 54.4 µm, 1SD) and comprise 1.54 ± 0.43 (1SD) area% of the host chondrites. Melilite in the hot desert and Colony meteorites was extensively replaced by a hydrated Ca‐Al‐silicate during terrestrial weathering and converted melilite‐rich inclusions into spinel‐pyroxene inclusions. The CAI populations of the weathered COs are very similar to those in CM chondrites, suggesting that complete replacement of melilite by terrestrial weathering, and possibly parent body aqueous alteration, would make the CO CAIs CM‐like, supporting the hypothesis that CO and CM chondrites derive from similar nebular materials. Within the CO3.0‐3.1 chondrites, asteroidal alteration significantly resets oxygen isotopic compositions of CAIs in CO3.1 chondrites (?¹⁷O: ?25 to ?2‰) but left those in CO3.0‐3.05 chondrites mostly unchanged (?¹⁷O: ?25 to ?20‰), further supporting the model whereby thermal metamorphism became evident in CO chondrites of petrologic type ≥3.1. The resistance of CAI minerals to oxygen isotope exchange during thermal metamorphism follows in the order: melilite + grossite < hibonite + anorthite < spinel + diopside + forsterite. Meanwhile, terrestrial weathering destroys melilite without changing the chemical and isotopic compositions of melilite and other CAI minerals.