The impact of spatial scale: exploring urban butterfly abundance and richness patterns using multi-criteria decision analysis and principal component analysis

ABSTRACT

Modelling changes in biodiversity have become a necessary component of smart urban planning practices. However, concepts such as biodiversity are often evaluated using area-based composite indices, the results of which are heavily reliant on specific parameters chosen. This paper explores the design and implementation of a butterfly biodiversity index by comparing two widely accepted modelling techniques: principal component analysis and spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). A high degree of scale dependency has been demonstrated in previous studies exploring the use of area-based composite measures. To evaluate the impact of scale, each model was assessed at two different spatial resolutions. The outcomes were analyzed, mapped and compared using ordinary least squares, geographically weighted regression and global Moran’s I to evaluate relative biodiversity patterns across the City of Toronto, Canada. Findings indicate that the impact of spatial scale was significant, whereby the coarser resolution models were found to be more highly correlated with biodiversity, compared to the finer resolution models. The results of this study contribute to a growing body of literature that explores key conceptual questions regarding the robustness of GIS-based MCDA, the impact of scale in urban ecology studies, and the use of composite indices to manage spatial ecological data.     

Influence of redox conditions on the intensity of Mars crustal magnetic anomalies

We evaluate the relationship between the intensity of remanent magnetization and fO₂ in natural and synthetic Mars meteorites. The olivine‐phyric shergottite meteorite Yamato 980459 (Y‐980459) and a sulfur‐free synthetic analog (Y‐98*) of identical major element composition were analyzed to explore the rock magnetic and remanence properties of a basalt crystallized from a primitive melt, and to explore the role of magmatic and alteration environment fO₂ on Mars crustal anomalies. The reducing conditions under which Y‐980459 is estimated to have formed (QFM‐2.5; Shearer et al. 2006) were replicated during the synthesis of Y‐98*. Y‐980459 contains pyrrhotite and chromite. Chromite is the only magnetic phase in Y‐98*. The remanence‐carrying capacity of Y‐980459 is comparable to other shergottites that formed in the fO₂ range of QFM‐3 to QFM‐1. The remanence‐carrying capacity of these low fO₂ basalts is 1–2 orders of magnitude too weak to account for the intense crustal anomalies observed in Mars's southern cratered highlands. Moderately oxidizing conditions of >QFM‐1, which are more commonly observed in nakhlites and Noachian breccias, are key to generating either a primary igneous assemblage or secondary alteration assemblage capable of acquiring an intense remanent magnetization, regardless of the basalt character or thermal history. This suggests that if igneous rocks are responsible for the intensely magnetized crust, these oxidizing conditions must have existed in the magmatic plumbing systems of early Mars or must have existed in the crust during secondary processes that led to acquisition of a chemical remanent magnetization.     

Martian cratering 12. Utilizing primary crater clusters to study crater populations and meteoroid properties

Images from Mars Global Surveyor and later images from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter reveal that roughly half of the meteoroids striking Mars (at meter to few decameter crater diameters) fragment in the Martian atmosphere, producing small clusters of primary impact craters. Statistics of these “primary clusters” yield valuable information about important Martian phenomena and properties of interplanetary bodies, including meteoroid behavior in the Martian atmosphere, bulk strengths of bodies striking Mars, and the fraction of Martian “field secondary” craters, a datum that would improve crater count chronometry. Many Martian impactors fragment at altitudes significantly higher than 18 km above the mean surface of Mars, and we find that most bodies striking Mars and Earth have low bulk strengths, consistent with crumbly or highly fractured objects. Applying statistics of primary clusters at various elevations and independent diameter bins, we describe a technique to estimate the percentage of semirandomly scattered “field secondary” craters. Our provisional estimate of this percentage, in the diameter range ~250 m down to ~22 m, is ~40% to ~80% of the total impacts, with the higher percentages at smaller diameters. Our data argue against earlier suggestions of overwhelming dominance by either primaries or secondaries in this diameter range.     

Geographical indications and the South Africa–European Union free trade agreement

Geographical indications, as a form of intellectual property, are becoming increasingly important in global trade. In South Africa's trade and cooperation agreement with the European Union, problems over the use of names such as 'port' and 'sherry' provided an important obstacle to the conclusion of the trade deal. This paper argues that the conflict over geographical indications in this trade agreement must be seen in the context of broader initiatives to establish a system of protecting this form of intellectual property through the World Trade Organisation.     

Regional debris-flow and debris-flood frequency–magnitude relationships

Construction of frequency–magnitude (F–M) relationships of debris floods and debris flows is challenging because of few direct observations, discontinuous event occurrence, loss of field evidence, the difficulty of accessing the sediment archive and the challenge of finding suitable statistical methods to analyse the dataset. Consultants often face budget limitations that prohibit application of the full gamut of absolute dating methods, stratigraphic analysis and analytical tools necessary to fully resolve the F–M legacy. In some cases, F–M curves are needed for watersheds without local information, or where obtaining this information is prohibitively expensive. For such watersheds, the F–M relationship may be estimated where several F–M curves have already been assembled in a specific region. Individual F–M curves are normalized by fan area or fan volume, then stratified by process type and geomorphic activity level. This paper describes the development of regional F–M curves for debris flows in southwestern British Columbia and debris flows and debris floods in the Bow River valley near Canmore, Alberta. We apply the regional relationships to other cases in Canada and the United States and demonstrate that the method can be globalized. The regional approach is compared to cases where detailed F–M relationships have been established by other means. Strong negative deviations from the regional debris-flow or debris-flood magnitude trends could signal inherent watershed stability, while strong positive deviations could signal extraordinary landslide processes, or suggest that the fan may be largely of paraglacial origin. We highlight some of these outlying cases and develop a method whereby the regional curves can be meaningfully adjusted, or reliance can be placed on lower or upper confidence bounds of the F–M curves. We caution against the indiscriminate use of the regionally based F–M curves, especially in watersheds where multiple geomorphic processes are active. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A less disastrous disaster: Managing response to climate-driven hazards in the Cayman Islands and NE Brazil

This paper explores the relationship between disaster risk reduction and long-term adaptive capacity building in two climate vulnerable areas—the Cayman Islands in the Caribbean and Ceará, in NE Brazil. Drawing on past applications of the disaster risk reduction framework, we identify four critical factors that have led to reductions in risk: flexible, learning-based, responsive governance; committed, reform-minded and politically active actors; disaster risk reduction integrated into other social and economic policy processes; and a long-term commitment to managing risk. We find that while the presence of these factors has reduced overall risk in both regions, in Ceará, disaster response as it is currently practiced, has fallen short of addressing the fundamental causes of vulnerability that leave those prone to hazards able to cope in the short term, yet enmeshed in poverty and at risk from the longer-term changes associated with climate change. Although calls for integration of disaster risk management with poverty eradication are not new, there has been insufficient attention paid in the literature on how to foster such integration. Based on the two case studies, we argue that the adoption of good governance mechanisms (such as stakeholder participation, access to knowledge, accountability and transparency) in disaster risk reduction policy may create the policy environment that is conducive to the kind of structural reform needed to build long-term adaptive capacity to climate-driven impacts. We conclude that without a synergistic two-tiered approach that includes both disaster risk reduction and structural reform, disaster risk reduction, in the face of climate changes, will prove to be an expensive and ineffective palliative treatment of changing risks.     

CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation

Lagged ensembles from the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal hindcast dataset are used to assess skill in forecasting interannual variability of the December–February Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find that a small but statistically significant portion of the interannual variance (>20 %) of the wintertime AO can be predicted at leads up to 2 months using lagged ensemble averages. As far as we are aware, this is the first study to demonstrate that an operational model has discernible skill in predicting AO variability on seasonal timescales. We find that the CFS forecast skill is slightly higher when a weighted ensemble is used that rewards forecast runs with the most accurate representations of October Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE), hinting that a stratospheric pathway linking October Eurasian SCE with the AO may be responsible for the model skill. However, further analysis reveals that the CFS is unable to capture many important aspects of this stratospheric mechanism. Model deficiencies identified include: (1) the CFS significantly underestimates the observed variance in October Eurasian SCE, (2) the CFS fails to translate surface pressure anomalies associated with SCE anomalies into vertically propagating waves, and (3) stratospheric AO patterns in the CFS fail to propagate downward through the tropopause to the surface. Thus, alternate boundary forcings are likely contributing to model skill. Improving model deficiencies identified in this study may lead to even more skillful predictions of wintertime AO variability in future versions of the CFS.     

Women and seed management: A study of two villages in Bangladesh

Seed management has until recently been neglected in agrobiodiversity research. Gender dimensions in seed selection, processing, storage and exchange embody critical task areas in the human management of diverse crop species and varieties. This paper focuses on women's roles in seed management in field and homegarden crops in Bangladesh and reports on the findings of a study in two villages in Tangail District. Seventy-five women were surveyed with a questionnaire and subsets interviewed in-depth; focus groups conducted for women and men provided a means of cross-checking responses. Three distinct areas of agrobiodiversity were addressed: the gendered divisions of labour among agricultural tasks; the pervasiveness of seed saving among respondents; and seed management practices and techniques. The results indicate that while men have greater authority over field activities, homegarden production is the exclusive domain of women. Seed management is seen as an extension of women's domestic duties: women are responsible for all seed processing, storage and exchange for field as well as homegarden crops. The vast majority of seeds sown are saved on-farm by women, revealing important cultural, economic and environmental implications for agrobiodiversity conservation and local differences.