Measuring the effect of an ongoing urbanization process on biodiversity conservation suitability index: integrating scenario-based urban growth modelling with Conservation Assessment and Prioritization System (CAPS)

The present study adopts an integrative modelling methodology, which combines the strengths of the SLEUTH model and the Conservation Assessment and Prioritization System (CAPS) method. By developing a scenario-based geographic information system simulation environment for Hashtpar City, Iran, the manageability of the landscape under each urban growth scenario is analysed. In addition, the CAPS approach was used for biodiversity conservation suitability mapping. The SLEUTH model was implemented to generate predictive urban layers of the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 for each scenario (dynamic factors for conservation suitability mapping). Accordingly, conservation suitability surface of the area is updated for each time point and under each urban development storyline. Two-way analysis of variance and Duncan’s new multiple range tests were employed to compare the functionality of the three scenarios. Based on results, the managed urban growth scenario depicted better results for manageability of the landscape and less negative impact on conservation suitability values.     

Regional bivariate modeling of droughts using L-comoments and copulas

The regional bivariate modeling of drought characteristics using the copulas provides valuable information for water resources management and drought risk assessment. The regional frequency analysis (RFA) can specify the similar sites within a region using L-comoments approach. One of the important steps in the RFA is estimating regional parameters of the copula function. In the present study, an optimization-based method along with the adjusted charged system search are introduced and applied to estimate the regional parameters of the copula models. The capability of the proposed methodology is illustrated by copula functions on drought events. Three commonly used copulas containing Clayton, Frank and Gumbel are employed to derive the joint distribution of drought severity and duration. The result of the new method are compared to the method of moments and after applying several goodness-of-fit tests, the results indicate that the new method provides higher accuracy than the classic one. Furthermore, the results of the upper tail dependence coefficient indicate that the Gumbel copula is the best-fitted copula among the other ones for modeling drought characteristics.     

Analysis of fracture induced scattering of microseismic shear-waves

Fractures are pervasive features within the Earth’s crust and have a significant influence on the multi-physical response of the subsurface. The presence of coherent fracture sets often leads to observable seismic scattering enabling seismic techniques to remotely locate and characterise fracture systems. In this study, we confirm the general scale-dependence of seismic scattering and provide new results specific to shear-wave propagation. We do this by generating full waveform synthetics using finite-difference wave simulation within an isotropic background model containing explicit fractures. By considering a suite of fracture models having variable fracture density and fracture size, we examine the widening effect of wavelets due to scattering within a fractured medium by using several different approaches, such as root-mean-square envelope analysis, shear-wave polarisation distortion, differential attenuation analysis and peak frequency shifting. The analysis allows us to assess the scattering behavior of parametrised models in which the propagation direction is either normal or parallel to the fracture surfaces. The quantitative measures show strong observable deviations for fractures size on the order of or greater than the dominant seismic wavelength within the Mie and geometric scattering regime for both propagation normal and parallel to fracture strike. The results suggest that strong scattering is symptomatic of fractures having size on the same order of the probing seismic wave.     

Integrated Interpretation of Interwell Connectivity Using Injection and Production Fluctuations

A method to characterize reservoirs, based on matching temporal fluctuations in injection and production rates, has recently been developed. The method produces two coefficients for each injector–producer pair; one parameter, λ, quantifies the connectivity and the other, τ, quantifies the fluid storage in the vicinity of the pair. Previous analyses used λ and τ separately to infer the presence of transmissibility barriers and conduits in the reservoir, but several common conditions could not be easily distinguished. This paper describes how λ and τ can be jointly interpreted to enhance inference about preferential transmissibility trends and barriers. Two different combinations are useful: one is a plot of log (λ) versus log (τ) for a producer and nearby injectors, and the second is a Lorenz-style flow capacity (F) versus storativity (C) plot. These techniques were tested against the results of a numerical simulator and applied to data from the North Buck Draw field. Using the simulated data, we find that the F–C plots and the λ–τ plots are capable of identifying whether the connectivity of an injector–producer well pair is through fractures, a high-permeability layer, multiple-layers or through partially completed wells. Analysis of data from the North Buck Draw field shows a reasonable correspondence between τ and the tracer breakthrough times. Of two possible geological models for Buck Draw, the F–C and λ–τ plots support the model that has less connectivity in the field. The wells in fluvial deposits show better communication than those wells in more estuarine-dominated regions.     

Geochemical and quality assessment of groundwater of Marand Basin, East Azarbaijan Province, northwestern Iran

The chemical analysis of 83 water wells in the Marand area, Azarbaijan Province NW of Iran was evaluated to determine the hydrogeochemical processes and ion concentration background in the region. Over the entire area, the dominated hydrochemical types are Ca? +?Mg?+?SO₄?+?Cl, Ca?+?SO₄, Na?+?Cl and Ca?+?Mg?+?HCO₃. Based on the total hardness, the softness of the groundwater is determined. According to electrical conductivity (EC) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), the most dominant classes are C3?CS1, C3?CS2, C4?CS2 and C2?CS1. The major ion concentrations are below the acceptable level for drinking water. The groundwater salinity hazard is medium to high, but the Na hazard is low to medium; with regard to irrigation water, the quality is low to medium. So, a drainage system is necessary to avoid the increase of toxic salt concentrations.     

The influence of alongshore and cross‐shore wave energy flux on large‐ and small‐scale coastal erosion patterns

A strong low‐pressure system traveled along the Japanese main island Honshu in October 2006. High waves and storm surge attacked the Kashima Coast resulting in huge erosion over the area. Airborne laser data measured in October 2005 and November 2006 were analyzed to estimate cross‐sectional changes within the subaerial zone. The results of the alongshore distribution of the changes of cross‐sectional area indicate that the amount of erosion of the 38 km‐long northern and 15 km‐long southern parts decreased toward the south in each part and that the amount of erosion was smaller in protected areas with artificial headlands than in unprotected areas. The local alongshore variation of the erosion and accretion patterns showed wavy fluctuations of several hundreds of meters. The total amounts of the estimated eroded volume of the subaerial zone over the northern and southern parts were 620 000 m³ and 600 000 m³, respectively. The Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model was applied to estimate wave conditions along the coast during the storm. The computational results were verified, and then the alongshore distribution of wave energies, expressed as the alongshore and cross‐shore components of the wave energy flux, was compared with the alongshore distribution of cross‐sectional change. The results show that the distribution of energy flux explains the distribution of erosion well: The alongshore variability in the cross‐shore energy flux is responsible for the large‐scale variability in erosion, and shorter‐scale variability is due to gradients in the alongshore energy fluxes, especially for the areas without coastal works. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining AHP with GIS for Predictive Cu Porphyry Potential Mapping: A Case Study in Ahar Area (NW,Iran)

Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method for multi-index evaluation has special advantages, while the use of geographic information systems (GIS) is suitable for spatial analysis. Combining AHP with GIS provides an effective approach for studies of mineral potential mapping evaluation. Selection of potential areas for exploration is a complex process in which many diverse criteria are to be considered. In this article, AHP and GIS are used for providing potential maps for Cu porphyry mineralization on the basis of criteria derived from geologic, geochemical, and geophysical, and remote sensing data including alteration and faults. Each criterion was evaluated with the aid of AHP and the result mapped by GIS. This approach allows the use of a mixture of quantitative and qualitative information for decision-making. The results of application in this article provide acceptable outcomes for copper porphyry exploration.     

Spatial assessment of desertification in north Sinai using modified MEDLAUS model

This study aims to use spatial analyses and a geographic information system (GIS) to assess the environmental sensitivity for desertification in the north Sinai Peninsula, Egypt. Based on the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) approach and the characteristics of the study area, a regional model was developed using GIS. Five main indicators of desertification including soil, climate, erosion, plant cover, and management were considered for estimating the environmental sensitivity to desertification. A spatial analyst extension Arc-GIS 10 software was used for matching the thematic layers and assessing the desertification index, of which the map of environmentally sensitive areas of the north Sinai Peninsula is produced. The obtained data reveals that 65 % of north Sinai is characterized by very severe sensitivity to desertification while the low sensitive one exhibits only 1.2 %. The moderately sensitive area occupies approximately 23 % of the study area. ETM+ and SPOT images are recommended to monitor sensitivity. The MEDALUS model was developed under the Egyptians to assess desertification sensitivity.     

Paleoclimatic evolution of central Sudan during the Late Miocene to Pleistocene

In this paper, information derived from X-ray diffraction and heavy and light fractions analyses were discussed with the aim to trace the paleoclimatic changes of central Sudan during the Late Miocene to Pleistocene. Based on lithological and mineralogical characters noted in the Sayal and Umm Ruwaba Formations, four phases of distinct paleoclimatic changes were recognized. The first phase commenced in the Late Miocene during the deposition of the Sayal formation. The area was slightly uplifted and of gentle slope, a feature deduced from the deposition of clayey and fine-grained sandy materials with subordinate gravely component. A hot and humid climate, depicted from the development of kaolinite and iron oxide, is proposed during the deposition of the Sayal formation. The second phase is characterized by development of depressions in which alluvial streams and possibly small lacustrine basins occurred. This is inferred from the presence of sandy and silty materials, a characteristic of the lower and middle parts of the Umm Ruwaba Formation. The climate remained hot and humid during the deposition of the lower part of the Umm Ruwaba Formation in the early Pliocene. A shift to dry conditions with possible periodic humid seasons is, however, thought to be established during the deposition of the middle part of the Umm Ruwaba Formation deduced from the observed increase in salinity and decrease in iron oxide content. During the third phase, throughout the deposition of the upper part of the Umm Ruwaba Formation, the kinetic energy of streams increased as can be inferred from the presence of gravely intercalations. Deposition under arid climate is suggested for the lowermost part due to the increased amount of feldspars and the absence of iron oxide. However, evidence of cool condition is again noted at the topmost part of the formation inferred from the relatively high content of iron oxide in the deposits.