Southeastern U.S. Vegetation Response to ENSO Events (1989–1999)

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is considered one of the most powerful forces driving anomalous global weather patterns. Large-scale seasonal precipitation and temperature changes influenced by ENSO have been examined in many areas of the world. The southeastern United States is one of the regions affected by ENSO events. In this study, remote sensing detection of vegetation response to ENSO phases is demonstrated with one-kilometer biweekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data (1989–1999) derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVHRR). The impacts of three ENSO phases, cold, warm and neutral, on vegetation were analyzed with a focus on two vegetation cover types, two seasons and two geographic regions within the southeastern U.S. Significant ENSO effects on vegetation were found in cropland and forest vegetation cover types based on image and statistical analysis of the NDVI data. The results indicate that vegetation condition was optimal during the ENSO neutral phase for both agricultural and natural vegetation.     

The impact of precipitation on speed–flow relationships along a UK motorway corridor

Although the fundamental traffic diagram provides the characteristics of a typical road traffic speed–flow relationship, little consideration has been given to the impact of adverse weather conditions on the relationship and the subsequent impact on local speed–flow. For the first time, this study uses precipitation radar along with a state-of-the art traffic information system to ascertain the relationship between speed–flow and precipitation on a UK transport corridor at the local (junction to junction) scale. It is evident that precipitation causes a significant reduction in speed and maximum flow on many links of the corridor as well as a downward reduction in the overall speed-flow relationship. With increased instances of heavy precipitation predicted in the UK as a result of climate change, these findings highlight the subsequent impact on journey travel times and associated economic costs.     

Statistical modeling of extreme value behavior in North American tree-ring density series

Many analyses of the paleoclimate record include conclusions about extremes, with a focus on the unprecedented nature of recent climate events. While the use of extreme value theory is becoming common in the analysis of the instrumental climate record, applications of this framework to the spatio-temporal analysis of paleoclimate records remain limited. This article develops a Bayesian hierarchical model to investigate spatially varying trends and dependencies in the parameters characterizing the distribution of extremes of a proxy data set, and applies it to the site-wise decadal maxima and minima of a gridded network of temperature sensitive tree ring density time series over northern North America. The statistical analysis reveals significant spatial associations in the temporal trends of the location parameters of the generalized extreme value distributions: maxima are increasing as a function of time, with stronger increases in the north and east of North America; minima are significantly increasing in the west, possibly decreasing in the east, and exhibit no changes in the center of the region. Results indicate that the distribution varies as a function of both space and time, with tree ring density maxima becoming more extreme as a function of time and minima having diverging temporal trends, by spatial location. Results of this proxy-only analysis are a first step towards directly reconstructing extremal climate behavior, as opposed to mean climate behavior, by linking extremes in the proxy record to extremes in the instrumental record.     

Can agriculture support climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation and rural livelihoods? insights from Kenya

Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, meet growing food demands, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya across several agroecological zones. Several practices emerge as triple wins, supporting climate adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation, and profitability goals. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across all agroecological zones examined. Triple wins of other agricultural practices are limited to specific agroecological zones. Irrigation and soil and water conservation, for example, are essential for adaptation, mitigation, and profitability in arid areas. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted toward these triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households and global climate change mitigation. To reap the benefits of triple-win strategies will require that policymakers, researchers, and practitioners move away from isolated approaches focused on either adaptation or mitigation or rural income generation toward a more holistic assessment of joint strategies as well as their tradeoffs and synergies.     

Behaviour of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations

A systematic analysis of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream latitude and wind speed from 52 model integrations, taken from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3, is carried out and compared to results obtained from the ERA-40 reanalyses. We consider here a control simulation, twentieth century simulation, and two time periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) from a twenty-first century, high-emission A2 forced simulation. The jet wind speed seasonality is found to be similar between the twentieth century simulations and the ERA-40 reanalyses and also between the control and forced simulations although nearly half of the models overestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. A systematic equatorward bias of the models jet latitude seasonality, by up to 7°, is observed, and models additionally overestimate the seasonal cycle of jet latitude about the mean, with the majority of the models showing equatorward and poleward biases during the cold and warm seasons respectively. A main finding of this work is that no GCM under any forcing scenario considered here is able to simulate the trimodal behaviour of the observed jet latitude distribution. The models suffer from serious problems in the structure of jet variability, rather than just quantitiative errors in the statistical moments.     

Non-destructive estimation of potato leaf chlorophyll from canopy hyperspectral reflectance using the inverted PROSAIL model

Optimizing nitrogen (N) fertilization in crop production by in-season measurements of crop N status may improve fertilizer N use efficiency. Hyperspectral measurements may be used to assess crop N status by estimating leaf chlorophyll content. This study evaluated the ability of the PROSAIL canopy-level reflectance model to predict leaf chlorophyll content. Trials were conducted with two potato cultivars under different N fertility rates (0–300 kg N ha⁻¹). Canopy reflectance, leaf area index (LAI) and leaf chlorophyll and N contents were measured. The PROSAIL model was able to predict leaf chlorophyll content with reasonable accuracy later in the growing season. The low estimation accuracy earlier in the growing season could be due to model sensitivity to non-homogenous canopy architecture and soil background interference before full canopy closure. Canopy chlorophyll content (leaf chlorophyll content × LAI) was predicted less accurately than leaf chlrophyll content due to the low estimation accuracy of LAI for values higher than 4.5.     

A first look at the effects of ionospheric signal bending on a globally processed GPS network

This study provides a first attempt at quantifying potential signal bending effects on the GPS reference frame, coordinates and zenith tropospheric delays (ZTDs). To do this, we homogeneously reanalysed data from a global network of GPS sites spanning 14 years (1995.0–2009.0). Satellite, Earth orientation, tropospheric and ground station coordinate parameters were all estimated. We tested the effect of geometric bending and dTEC bending corrections, which were modelled at the observation level based, in part, on parameters from the International Reference Ionosphere 2007 model. Combined, the two bending corrections appear to have a minimal effect on site coordinates and ZTDs except for low latitude sites. Considering five days (DOY 301–305, 28 October–1 November 2001) near ionospheric maximum in detail, they affect mean ZTDs by up to ~1.7 mm at low latitudes, reducing to negligible levels at high latitudes. Examining the effect on coordinates in terms of power-spectra revealed the difference to be almost entirely white noise, with noise amplitude ranging from 0.3 mm (high latitudes) to 2.4 mm (low latitudes). The limited effect on station coordinates is probably due to the similarity in the elevation dependence of the bending term with that of tropospheric mapping functions. The smoothed z-translation from the GPS reference frame to ITRF2005 changes by less than 2 mm, though the effect combines positively with that from the second order ionospheric refractive index term. We conclude that, at the present time, and for most practical purposes, the geometric and dTEC bending corrections are probably negligible at current GPS/reference frame precisions.     

Selenium and mercury concentrations in harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) from central California: Health implications in an urbanized estuary

We measured total selenium and total mercury concentrations ([TSe] and [THg]) in hair (n = 138) and blood (n = 73) of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) from California to assess variation by geography and sex, and inferred feeding relationships based on carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur stable isotopes. Harbor seals from Hg-contaminated sites had significantly greater [THg], and lesser [TSe] and TSe:THg molar ratios than seals from a relatively uncontaminated site. Males had significantly greater [THg] than females at all locations. Sulfur stable isotope values explained approximately 25% of the variability in [THg], indicating increased Hg exposure for seals with a greater use of estuarine prey species. Decreased [TSe] in harbor seals from Hg-contaminated regions may indicate a relative Se deficiency to mitigate the toxic effects of Hg. Further investigation into the Se status and the potential negative impact of Hg on harbor seals from Hg-contaminated sites is warranted.     

Measurement of soluble reactive phosphorus concentration profiles and fluxes in river-bed sediments using DET gel probes

DET (diffusive equilibrium in thin films) gel probes were used for sampling river-bed sediment porewaters, to characterise in situ soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration profiles and fluxes. DET probes were deployed in three contrasting rural streams: (1) a headwater ‘pristine’ stream, with minimal P inputs from low intensity grassland and no point sources, (2) an intensively cultivated arable catchment, and (3) a stream subject to high P loadings from sewage effluent and intensive arable farming. The DET results showed highly enriched porewater SRP concentrations of between ca. 400 and 5000 μg-P l⁻¹ in the sewage-impacted stream. In contrast, the arable and pristine streams had porewater SRP concentrations <70 μg-P l⁻¹ and <20 μg-P l⁻¹, respectively. Porewater SRP concentration profiles in both the sewage-impacted and arable-impacted streams showed well-defined vertical structure, indicating internal sources and sinks of SRP within the sediment. However, there was little variability in porewater SRP concentrations in the pristine stream. The DET porewater profiles indicated net diffusion of SRP (a) from the overlying river water into the surface sediment and (b) from subsurface sediment upwards towards the sediment–water interface. A mass balance for the sewage-impacted site showed that the influx of SRP into the surface sediments from the overlying river water was small (ca. 1% of the daily river SRP load). The DET results indicated that, in the arable and sewage-impacted streams, the surface ‘cap’ of fine sediment may play an important role in inhibiting upward movement of SRP from subsurface porewaters into the overlying river water, under steady-state, low-flow conditions.