Stratosphere key for wintertime atmospheric response to warm Atlantic decadal conditions

There is evidence that the observed changes in winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drive a significant portion of Atlantic Multi Decadal Variability (AMV). However, whether the observed decadal NAO changes can be forced by the ocean is controversial. There is also evidence that artificially imposed multi-decadal stratospheric changes can impact the troposphere in winter. But the origins of such stratospheric changes are still unclear, especially in early to mid winter, where the radiative ozone-impact is negligible. Here we show, through observational analysis and atmospheric model experiments, that large-scale Atlantic warming associated with AMV drives high-latitude precursory stratospheric warming in early to mid winter that propagates downward resulting in a negative tropospheric NAO in late winter. The mechanism involves stratosphere/troposphere dynamical coupling, and can be simulated to a large extent, but only with a stratosphere resolving model (i.e., high-top). Further analysis shows that this precursory stratospheric response can be explained by the shift of the daily extremes toward more major stratospheric warming events. This shift cannot be simulated with the atmospheric (low-top) model configuration that poorly resolves the stratosphere and implements a sponge layer in upper model levels. While the potential role of the stratosphere in multi-decadal NAO and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation changes has been recognised, our results show that the stratosphere is an essential element of extra-tropical atmospheric response to ocean variability. Our findings suggest that the use of stratosphere resolving models should improve the simulation, prediction, and projection of extra-tropical climate, and lead to a better understanding of natural and anthropogenic climate change.     

Age and significance of the Quaternary cemented deposits of the Duje Valley (Picos de Europa,Northern Spain)

Cemented calcareous breccias appear in the Picos de Europa (Cantabrian Mountains, Spain) resting on glacially abraded surfaces and covered by moraines. U/Th dating of the calcite coating the clasts was successful in two samples, the oldest one indicating that the breccias accumulated during or prior to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, and the youngest indicating later cementation during MIS 8. The former introduces a limit for the age of the glaciation preceding the breccias, which cannot correspond to an event younger than MIS 12. This is the oldest absolute age so far obtained for intercalated glacial/interglacial deposits of the Iberian Peninsula.     

The 2012 Northern Italy Earthquakes: modelling human behaviour

The aim of this study was to investigate human behaviour during the 2012 Northern Italy Earthquakes. Furthermore, the current study used Kuligowski and Mileti’s (Fire Saf J 44:487–496, 2009) extended model and the Social Attachment Model as a framework to explain the behavioural responses. The study included 1839 participants who were affected by the earthquake occurred in the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy) on 20 May 2012. The most frequent behavioural responses during the earthquake were moving to another room of the house, escaping from home, and waiting in bed. According to Kuligowski and Mileti’s (Fire Saf J 44:487–496, 2009) extended model, perceived risk was associated with evacuation, and emergency preparedness was related to more efficient and effective responses during the earthquake. In line with the Social Attachment Model, affiliation behaviours were more frequent than flight behaviours, while, contrary to predictions, the social context did not influence emotional responses, evacuation behaviour, and search for protection.     

Kinematic and geochronological constraints on shear deformation in the Ferriere-Mollières shear zone (Argentera-Mercantour Massif,Western Alps): implications for the evolution of the Southern European Variscan Belt

International Journal of Earth Sciences - In the Western Alps, a steeply dipping km-scale shear zone (the Ferriere-Mollières shear zone) cross-cuts Variscan migmatites in the...     

Early to mid‐Holocene climate change at Lago dell'Accesa (central Italy): climate signal or anthropogenic bias?

Despite the high potential of pollen records for climate reconstruction, pollen–climate relationships may be biased due to past and present human activities on the landscape. We use (i) transfer functions based on modern pollen–climate relationships to infer seasonal temperature and summer precipitation for the period 11 500–4500 cal. a BP and (ii) lake‐level change records based on different sedimentary proxies in multiple cores that are mainly indicative for summer hydrology at Lago dell'Accesa (central Italy). Quantitative reconstructions indicate lowest summer precipitation during two phases (8500–7700 cal. a BP and after 6000 cal. a BP) and a gradual winter temperature increase from 11 500 to ca. 8000 cal. a BP. Lowest summer precipitation was reconstructed during these phases characterised by vegetation shifts from open forests dominated by summergreen oaks (Quercus) to forests dominated by evergreen oaks (Quercus ilex), which are at present most abundant where summer drought is stronger. Similarly, the lake‐level record indicates two long‐lasting low summer precipitation phases (8800–7700 and 6400–4400 cal. a BP) that were interrupted by short‐term high summer precipitation events. Based on the broad agreement between the pollen‐inferred summer precipitation and the low‐frequency lake‐level changes, we suggest that the duration of the high summer precipitation events may have been too short to maintain drought‐sensitive trees, which may have been affected by high mortality rates when summer dry conditions returned. Although past and modern pollen–climate relationships may very likely have been affected by human activities since the Neolithic (i.e. when exploitation of the landscape started), we reject the hypothesis of a significant anthropogenic bias in the pollen‐based climate reconstruction. In addition, we suggest that pollen‐based and lake‐level reconstructions may have different inherent abilities of capturing high‐ and low‐frequency precipitation signals. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrogeochemical and nitrate isotopic evolution of a semiarid mountainous basin aquifer of glacial-fluvial and paleolacustrine origin (Lake Titicaca,Bolivia): the effects of natural processes and anthropogenic activities

Hydrogeology Journal - A hydrogeochemical and stable isotopic ( $${\updelta }^{15}{\mathrm{N}}_{{\mathrm{NO}}_{3}}$$ and $${\updelta }^{18}{\mathrm{O}}_{{\mathrm{NO}}_{3}}$$ ) multitracer approach...     

Soil Budget,Net Export,and Potential Sinks of Nitrogen in the Lower Oglio River Watershed (Northern Italy)

A nitrogen mass balance, realized for the lower Oglio River basin (Po River Plain, northern Italy), suggested an elevated impact of agricultural activities in this watershed. Livestock manure, synthetic fertilizers, biological fixation, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater sludge contributed 51, 34, 12, 2, and 1% of total N (TN) input, respectively (basin average 450 kg N ha^?1 arable land (AL) year^?1, overall input 100 115 t N year^?1). Crop uptake, ammonia volatilization and denitrification in soils contributed 65, 21, and 14%, respectively, of TN output (basin average 270 kg N ha^?1 AL year^?1, overall output 60 060 t N year^?1). N inputs exceeded outputs by 40 056 t N year^?1, resulting in a basin average surplus of about 180 kg N ha^?1 AL year^?1. About 34% of the N surplus was exported annually from the basin while the remaining amount (about 26 800 t N year^?1) underwent other unaccounted for processes within the watershed. The relevance of nitrogen removal via denitrification in aquatic compartments within the watershed was evaluated. Denitrification in the secondary drainage network can represent a relevant nitrogen sink due to great linear extension (over 12 500 km), with estimated nitrogen loss up to 8500 t N year^?1. Denitrification in the riverbed and in perifluvial wetlands have the potential to remove only a small fraction of the nitrogen surplus (<3%). Evidence suggests the relevance of groundwater as a site of nitrogen accumulation.     

Stratospheric climate and variability from a general circulation model and observations

The climate and natural variability of the large-scale stratospheric circulation simulated by a newly developed general circulation model are evaluated against available global observations. The simulation consisted of a 30-year annual cycle integration performed with a comprehensive model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The observations consisted of a 15-year dataset from global operational analyses of the troposphere and stratosphere. The model evaluation concentrates on the simulation of the evolution of the extratropical stratospheric circulation in both hemispheres. The December–February climatology of the observed zonal mean winter circulation is found to be reasonably well captured by the model, although in the Northern Hemisphere upper stratosphere the simulated westerly winds are systematically stronger and a cold bias is apparent in the polar stratosphere. This Northern Hemisphere stratospheric cold bias virtually disappears during spring (March–May), consistent with a realistic simulation of the spring weakening of the mean westerly winds in the model. A considerable amount of monthly interannual variability is also found in the simulation in the Northern Hemisphere in late winter and early spring. The simulated interannual variability is predominantly caused by polar warmings of the stratosphere, in agreement with observations. The breakdown of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex appears therefore to occur in a realistic way in the model. However, in early winter the model severely underestimates the interannual variability, especially in the upper troposphere. The Southern Hemisphere winter (June–August) zonal mean temperature is systematically colder in the model, and the simulated winds are somewhat too strong in the upper stratosphere. Contrary to the results for the Northern Hemisphere spring, this model cold bias worsens during the Southern Hemisphere spring (September–November). Significant discrepancies between the model results and the observations are therefore found during the breakdown of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex. For instance, the simulated Southern Hemisphere stratosphere westerly jet continuously decreases in intensity more or less in situ from June to November, while the observed stratospheric jet moves downward and poleward.This paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 4–8 Sept. 1995 under the auspice of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil.