Towards a simple dynamic process conceptualization in rainfall–runoff models using multi‐criteria calibration and tracers in temperate,upland catchments

Empirically based understanding of streamflow generation dynamics in a montane headwater catchment formed the basis for the development of simple, low‐parameterized, rainfall–runoff models. This study was based in the Girnock catchment in the Cairngorm Mountains of Scotland, where runoff generation is dominated by overland flow from peaty soils in valley bottom areas that are characterized by dynamic expansion and contraction of saturation zones. A stepwise procedure was used to select the level of model complexity that could be supported by field data. This facilitated the assessment of the way the dynamic process representation improved model performance. Model performance was evaluated using a multi‐criteria calibration procedure which applied a time series of hydrochemical tracers as an additional objective function. Flow simulations comparing a static against the dynamic saturation area model (SAM) substantially improved several evaluation criteria. Multi‐criteria evaluation using ensembles of performance measures provided a much more comprehensive assessment of the model performance than single efficiency statistics, which alone, could be misleading. Simulation of conservative source area tracers (Gran alkalinity) as part of the calibration procedure showed that a simple two‐storage model is the minimum complexity needed to capture the dominant processes governing catchment response. Additionally, calibration was improved by the integration of tracers into the flow model, which constrained model uncertainty and improved the hydrodynamics of simulations in a way that plausibly captured the contribution of different source areas to streamflow. This approach contributes to the quest for low‐parameter models that can achieve process‐based simulation of hydrological response. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precession of the super-massive black hole in NGC 1275 (3C 84)?

The X-ray holes at the centre of the Perseus cluster of galaxies are not all at the same position angle with respect to the centre of the cluster. This configuration would result if the jet inflating the bubbles is precessing, or moving around, and the bubbles detach at different times. The orientations which best fit the observed travel directions are an inclination of the precession axis to the line of sight of 120° and an opening angle of 50°. From the time-scales for the bubbles seen in the cluster, the precession time-scale, τ_prec, is around  3.3 × 10⁷ yr  . The bubbles rising up through different parts of the cluster may have interacted with the central cool gas, forming the whorl of cool gas observed in the temperature structure of the cluster. The dynamics of bubbles rising in fluids is discussed. The conditions present in the cluster are such that oscillatory motion, observed for bubbles rising in fluids on Earth, should take place. However, the time-scale for this motion is longer than that taken for the bubbles to evolve into spherical-cap bubbles, which do not undergo a path instability, so such motion is not expected to occur.     

Interpretation of homogeneity in δ18O signatures of stream water in a nested sub-catchment system in north-east Scotland

The isotope hydrology of a set of nested sub-catchments in the north-east of Scotland has been studied to examine the mixing processes and residence times of water in the catchments. The measured δ¹⁸O in stream waters was found to be exceptionally uniform both temporally and spatially. Hydrochemical mixing analyses showed that groundwater contributes between 62 and 90% of the stream flow in all sub-catchments. Model analysis indicated that the δ¹⁸O in stream water is indicative of a highly mixed system in which near surface runoff appears to be mixed with groundwater, within the soil profile, before being released from the catchment. Small fluctuations in the stream water δ¹⁸O response are generated by a small proportion (<10%) of less-well mixed water in infiltration excess runoff during storm events. A comparative application of the model to a nearby catchment, which has a lower proportion of groundwater runoff, demonstrated contrasting behaviour, with significantly less mixing of waters occurring and a more distinct difference in the age of runoff generated by different flow paths. This highlighted that standard methods for characterization of mixing mechanisms are often insufficient and may not discriminate between systems that have retained quite distinct flow paths throughout catchment transit, and those which have been mixed at some stage. Model sensitivity analysis also indicated that the simulated mean residence time of water varies most strongly in response to different parameters compared with the δ¹⁸O response. This has implications for estimating water residence times from isotope data. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Examining the wake structure in Saturn's rings from microwave observations over varying ring opening angles and wavelengths

Over the last 15 to 20 years several high quality, high resolution data have been taken with the very large array (VLA). These data exhibit a wide range of ring opening angles (|B|=0 to 26°) and wavelengths (λ=0.7 to 20 cm). At these wavelengths the primary flux from the rings is scattered saturnian thermal emission, with a small contribution coming from the ring particles' own thermal emission. Much of the data do show signs of asymmetries due to wakes either on the ansae or the portion of the rings which occult the planet. As in previous work, we use our Monte Carlo radiative transfer code including idealized wakes [Dunn, D.E., Molnar, L.A., Fix, J.D., 2002. Icarus 160, 132-160; Dunn, D.E., Molnar, L.A., Niehof, J.T., de Pater, I., Lissauer, J.L., 2004. Icarus 171, 183-198] to model the relative contributions of the scattered and thermal radiation emanating from the rings and compare the results to that seen in the data. Although the models do give satisfactory fits to all of our data, we find that no single model can simulate the data at all different |B| and λ. We find that one model works best for moderate and low |B| and another one at higher |B|. The main difference between these models is the ratio of the wake width to their separation. We similarly find that the 2 cm data require higher density wakes than the longer wavelength data, perhaps caused by a preponderance of somewhat smaller ring material in the wakes. We further find evidence for an increase in the physical temperature of the rings with increasing |B|. Continuous observations are required to determine whether the above results regarding variations in wake parameters with |B| and λ are indeed caused by these parameters, or instead by changes over time.     

How does landscape structure influence catchment transit time across different geomorphic provinces?

Despite an increasing number of empirical investigations of catchment transit times (TTs), virtually all are based on individual catchments and there are few attempts to synthesize understanding across different geographical regions. Uniquely, this paper examines data from 55 catchments in five geomorphic provinces in northern temperate regions (Scotland, United States of America and Sweden). The objective is to understand how the role of catchment topography as a control on the TTs differs in contrasting geographical settings. Catchment inverse transit time proxies (ITTPs) were inferred by a simple metric of isotopic tracer damping, using the ratio of standard deviation of δ¹⁸O in streamwater to the standard deviation of δ¹⁸O in precipitation. Quantitative landscape analysis was undertaken to characterize the catchments according to hydrologically relevant topographic indices that could be readily determined from a digital terrain model (DTM). The nature of topographic controls on transit times varied markedly in different geomorphic regions. In steeper montane regions, there are stronger gravitational influences on hydraulic gradients and TTs tend to be lower in the steepest catchments. In provinces where terrain is more subdued, direct topographic control weakened; in particular, where flatter areas with less permeable soils give rise to overland flow and lower TTs. The steeper slopes within this flatter terrain appear to have a greater coverage of freely draining soils, which increase sub‐surface flow, therefore increasing TTs. Quantitative landscape analysis proved a useful tool for inter‐catchment comparison. However, the critical influence of sub‐surface permeability and connectivity may limit the transferability of predictive tools of hydrological function based on topographic parameters alone. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High‐frequency storm event isotope sampling reveals time‐variant transit time distributions and influence of diurnal cycles

High‐frequency sampling of stable water isotopes in precipitation and stream water during winter and summer storm events was carried out in a 2·3 km² lowland agricultural catchment. During peak flows of monitored events, the responses of δ²H and δ¹⁸O were comparable and inferred the dominance (ca 70%) of ‘old’ pre‐event water. Transit Time Distribution (TTD) inferred by a gamma function were fitted (Nash–Sutcliffe = 0·8) and were also similar for δ²H and δ¹⁸O. However, the shape (α) and scaling (β) parameters were markedly different for summer and winter events. Consequently, when antecedent wetness was high, mean transit times were in the order of days; when drier, they increased to months. Moreover, while the responses of δ²H and δ¹⁸O exhibited similar gradual recovery to pre‐event conditions during winter hydrograph recessions, they differed dramatically on summer recessions. Time series analysis showed that δ²H isotope content was correlated with the diurnal cycle of air temperature, suggesting an evaporative fractionation pattern which could be reproduced by a temperature‐based first‐order autoregressive model. The heavier δ¹⁸O isotope showed no evidence for such diurnal variability. The study highlights the utility of high‐frequency stable isotope sampling to explore the time‐variant nature of TTDs. Furthermore, it shows that the time of sampling in a diurnal cycle may have crucial significance for interpreting stream isotope signatures, particularly δ²H. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The vulnerability of the European air traffic network to spatial hazards

The 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano had a devastating effect on the European air traffic network, preventing air travel throughout most of Europe for 6 days (Oroian in ProEnvironment 3:5–8, 2010). The severity of the disruption was surprising as previous research suggests that this type of network should be tolerant to random hazard (Albert et al. in Nature 406(6794):378–382, 2000; Strogatz in Nature 410(6825):268–276, 2001). The source of this hazard tolerance lies in the degree distribution of the network which, for many real-world networks, has been shown to follow a power law (Albert et al. in Nature 401(6749):130–131, 1999; Albert et al. in Nature 406(6794):378–382, 2000). In this paper, we demonstrate that the ash cloud was unexpectedly disruptive because it was spatially coherent rather than uniformly random. We analyse the spatial dependence in air traffic networks and demonstrate how the combination of their geographical distribution and their network architectures jeopardises their inherent hazard tolerance.