夏季风变异与我国持久性旱涝

本文根据1978—1981年4年的流场,相当位温和湿度场资料讨论了夏季风年际变异与旱涝的关系,着重分析了1978—1980年3年南北半球低纬度700毫巴等压面流场来了解夏季风几支气流与旱涝的关系。     

Heating status of the Tibetan Plateau from April to June and rainfall and atmospheric circulation anomaly over East Asia in midsummer

Based on the 1958-1999 monthly averaged reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the rainfall data of 160 Chinese surface stations, the relationship between rainfall and the atmospheric circulation anomaly over East Asia (EA) in July and the sensible heating (SH) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from April to June (AMJ) is investigated by using the rotational experimental orthogonal function (REOF) method. The results show that the TP is an isolated heating source in this period. The lagged correlation analysis between the first rotational principal component (RPC) of SH over the TP in May and rainfall of EA in July demonstrates that strong SH over the TP before July leads to a positive rainfall anomaly over the TP, the valley between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River, and the regions south and southeast of the TP, and the Sichuan Basin and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, but less rainfall anomaly over the regions north, northeas     

Genetic diversity of wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum) and its utilization for barley improvement

Wild barley (Hordeum vulgare spp. spontaneum) is the undisputed progenitor of cultivated barley and offers considerable potential as a genetic resource for barley improvement. Naturally occurring populations are distributed primarily across the Fertile Crescent, but secondary areas of diversity are also found in central Asia and Tibet. The pattern of its genetic diversity is non-random, and is structured on a global, regional and local scale. On a global scale, diversity follows ecogeography, while on a regional and local scale, it is more strongly determined by ecology. Populations growing in areas where the climate is unreliable and/or the soil is heterogeneous tend to retain the most diversity. A large number of accessions are currently conserved ex situ, but a high proportion of these have originated from the Fertile Crescent. Given the likelihood of future climate change, conserving germplasm both in situ and ex situ in the various regions where the species’ currently existing is a research priority. The value of H. vulgare spp. spontaneum for the improvement of cultivated barley lies largely in its potential contribution to the levels of attainable pathogen resistance and abiotic stress tolerance.     

月动力延伸预报产品在新疆月尺度降水预测中的应用检验

利用新疆101个气象观测站点逐月降水实况资料和2001~2010年国家动力气候模式产品,进行月动力延伸预报产品的应用预测检验。采用PS评分和同号率对内插预测结果进行效果评估,并与业务评分进行对比。结果表明：月动力延伸预报产品对新疆地区月降水趋势预测Ps评分高于业务评分,而对各月降水距平百分率的同号率差异较大。夏、秋季Ps评分较高,冬、春季PS评分较低,季节转换时预测Ps评分变率较大。     

基于Web Service的气象预警短信发布系统设计与实现

昆明市气象预警信息发布系统是以提高预警信息及时性和发布效率为出发点,整合了不同种类自动气象站的数据资源,与气象业务平台无缝集成,实时监控数据并生成满足需求的气象预警短信,通过预警号码管理数据库,确定预警信息受众范围,实现了预警短信服务的自动化、标准化、规范化。信息编辑不再需要人工干预,信息发布摒弃了原有的GPRS通信、GSMModem通信、运营商提供短信发布平台等方式,基于Web Service技术直接接入电信短信网关,实现了气象预警信息的高效发布,提高了气象服务的整体质量和效率。     

基于位置误差的分布制作热带气旋路径袭击概率预报

为了探讨热带气旋路径预报的不确定性,利用2004-2007年4年中央气象台综合预报的误差分布状况,建立热带气旋路径综合预报的统计集合模型,制作热带气旋路径的袭击概率预报及产品,并为警报发布工作中有关登陆地段的预报提供有意义的参考.     

鹤壁市夏季一次雹暴过程的成因分析

运用天气图、物理量场、卫星云图、雷达回波及相关气象资料,分析了2005年6月19日发生在鹤壁的雷雨大风、并伴有局地冰雹的强对流天气过程.结果表明:在低层θse高能舌区内,地面冷锋移到 500 hPa高空急流出口区下方左侧时,高低空次级环流耦合,触发不稳定能量释放、产生强烈的上升运动,是这次强对流天气产生的直接原因.     

肇庆市地质灾害与降水的耦合特征及预报方法

利用1991-2003年肇庆市发生的21例地质灾害的当日和前期降水资料,研究前期累积降水、当日降水与不同地质环境的地质灾害的耦合关系,得出相对固定的全市地质灾害易发程度分区图,并根据逐日的降水预报按二维综合判别表得出地质灾害预警等级,对2006-2008年进行预报效果检验,准确率分别为83%、87.5%、91.7%.     

GIS技术在决策气象服务系统建设中的应用

该文介绍了基于组件式GIS技术的决策气象服务系统建设的总体框架, 并阐述了系统的建设内容, 主要包括电子地图建设、气象制图输出、实时与历史资料检索、灾情分析、台风预警与损失评估以及参数化制图等功能; 同时对GIS应用于决策气象服务系统的若干关键技术问题进行了深入讨论与分析, 如数据共享与转换、气象要素插值算法、空间信息检索方法、基于插件技术的模型评估方法、三维可视化技术; 最后给出了相关结论, 并指出该系统将为全国综合性决策服务系统提供一个良好的建设思路。     

MODIS地表温度产品与实测资料对比分析

陆面温度是研究地表和大气之间物质交换和能量交换的重要参数。本文通过NASAMODIS地表温度产品与常规资料的分析,发现利用MODIS资料反演的地表温度在山西省分布情况与实测资料基本一致,但应用MODIS资料反演的地表温度要小于实测数据。