宏观地震忽略吸收确定震源深度问题的通解及其精确度

分析G-R-闵公式后得出,它是从点源幅射场导出的,与地震宏观场不相应。因在近场震源不能视作点源。在分析过程中,导出相当于点源、线源或面源以及复杂源的幅射场的深度公式。对实际的地震,它的源类型一无所知,所以不预作假定,将源指标几何扩散率n作为待定参数,导出了一个物理意义明确而又普遍化的震源深度公式。此公式的诸解法中,以计算方法准确、精度高,作图法有直观的优点,但准确性差、精度低,图算法只作获取粗略值和考察数据均匀性用。计算了9个8级以上巨震、1个71/2大震,和两个M_L=3的有感地震的震源深度,经对比结果很好,利用计算得出震源类型,结合宏观场研究了这些地震的震源几何学。并且首次在国际上给出宏观地震震源深度值的标准误差。     

青海唐古拉地区侏罗纪非海相双壳动物群及其古环境分析

唐古拉山温泉以东约80km的冬曲一带产出丰富的侏罗纪非海相双壳类化石,中侏罗统雀莫错组顶部的紫红色细粒岩屑砂岩产Qiyangia,Yunnanopharus,Unio 3属3种,其中有新种Yunnanopharus substratus.这一动物群与过去在本区发现的中侏罗统“Cuneopsis”-Eolamprotula-Protomya动物群面貌明显不同,过去一直认为Yunnanopharus是晚三叠世的属,而Qiyangia则主要产于下侏罗统,根据地层层序及上、下层位产出的海相双壳类和腕足类化石时代分析,冬曲剖面的Qiyangia-Yunnanopharus动物群时代无疑为中侏罗世巴通期,扎窝茸组产非海相双壳类“Cuneopsis”,Yunnanopharus,Plicatunio,Nipponaia(Eonipponaia),Cyotrigonioides,Danlengicon-cha,Nakamuranaia等7属9种,其中包括新种Yunnanoconcha(?)ovalis,Danlengiconha tanggu-laensis,Cyotrigonioides(?)ellipticus和Nipponaia(Eonipponaia)?bifurcata,基于下伏海相地层中双壳类和腕足类化石的佐证,它们的时代最有可能是在晚侏罗世基末里期至早白垩世期间,据化石围岩的粒度分析以及埋藏学研究表明,这些类三角蚌类主要生活于水体安静、有机质含量丰富的淤泥质基底,繁盛于近海三角洲平原上的湖沼环境,同时,由于海退初期尚有可能受到海水短暂侵漫的影响,造成它们生存环境的咸化     

东海近海热带气旋及天气数值预报系统

以ＭＭ４模式为框架,研制并建立了东海近海热带气旋及天气数值预报系统,将对热带气旋的预报和一般天气的预报统一在一个模式中,并实现了业务自动化控制,自１９９４年台风季节起投入了业务试验和准业务的运行。结果表明：该系统对东海近海热带气旋路径、风场、降水及江淮梅雨降水具有较好的预报能力     

汛期西南低涡移向频数的年际变化与降水

利用1960～1999年汛期西南低涡不同移向的数据资料与同期移向相对应站点的降水量进行同步相关分析和检验，并将通过显著水平a=0．05检验的两组资料用墨西哥帽子波进行分析。结果显示：这40年汛期中出现的西南低涡，在原地生消的占总数的一半以上，而能够继续移动发展的西南低涡以偏东路径为主；东北路径的西南低涡与该方向上太原、石家庄降水的相关比较好，偏东路径与汉口降水相关较好，移动总和与内江降水相关较好；从小波分析结果发现东北、偏东路径低涡出现次数与对应站点降水，在10年以上的时间尺度上它们的分布周期存在良好的对应关系。     

云南雨季逐候降水量的低频振荡特征

应用主分量方法分析了云南省84站1991~2000年雨季(5~10月)逐候降水量的主要时空特征,并用非整波技术分析了所提取的第1、第2主分量频谱分布的低频振荡特点,同时分析了低频振荡现象与El Nino(La Nina)事件及云南雨季降水多、少之间的关系。结果表明:①云南地区雨季降水主要低频振荡周期为6候(30天)、10候(50天)的月际振荡和15~17候(75~85天)的季节内振荡;②云南雨季的候降水每年都存在30天振荡周期,30天振荡是云南雨季固有的振荡;③当发生El Nino或La Nina异常气候事件时,云南雨季的候降水存在50天振荡周期;④当云南雨季存在75~85天振荡时,云南主汛期(6~8月)降水距平百分率为正(除2000年为零距平);当云南雨季不存在75~85天振荡时,云南主汛期降水距平百分率为负。     

华北盛夏旱涝的环流型特征及其在初夏的预兆

文中应用NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa逐日资料对影响华北盛夏旱涝的环流特征进行分析,给出了盛夏旱涝分别与“西高东低”和“东高西低”流型的对应关系。并进一步研究初夏与盛夏的环流演变特征,得知若在6月500 hPa华北出现异常增高过程时,则盛夏多出现“西高东低”流型,华北少雨;反之,6月华北出现异常低压过程时,盛夏多出现“东高西低”流型,华北多雨。6月华北高压区环流特征与盛夏的环流型相关系数达0.597,与华北中部盛夏降水相关系数为0.562,为初夏进行盛夏旱涝短期气候预测提供了依据。以此为根据建立了初夏对于天津盛夏降水短期气候预测的经验方法,在2002—2004年的业务应用中预报趋势都是正确的。     

开展职业健康安全管理体系认证提高勘察设计单位的管理水平和市场竞争力(六、七期连载)

（第一部分刊登在2006年第六期） 二、职业健康安全管理体系的核心思想与结构要素 1.管理体系的运行基础 系统化的“戴明模型”,或称为PDCA模型是职业健康安全管理体系的运行基础.按照“戴明模型”,一个企业的经营活动可分为“计划（PLAN）、行动（DO）、检查（CHECK）、改进（ACT）”四个相互联系的环节.     

Recent Progress in the Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on Climate in China

Studies of the impacts of the Tibetan Plateau （TP） on climate in China in the last four years are reviewed. It is reported that temperature and precipitation over the TP have increased during recent decades. From satellite data analysis, it is demonstrated that most of the precipitation over the TP is from deep convection clouds. Moreover, the huge TP mechanical forcing and extraordinary elevated thermal forcing impose remarkable impacts upon local circulation and global climate. In winter and spring, stream flow is deflected by a large obstacle and appears as an asymmetric dipole, making East Asia much colder than mid Asia in winter and forming persistent rainfall in late winter and early spring over South China. In late spring, TP heating contributes to the establishment and intensification of the South Asian high and the abrupt seasonal transition of the surrounding circulations. In summer, TP heating in conjunction with the TP air pump cause the deviating stream field to resemble a cyclonic spiral, converging towards and rising over the TP. Therefore, the prominent Asian monsoon climate over East Asia and the dry climate over mid Asia in summer are forced by both TP local forcing and Eurasian continental forcing.
Due to the longer memory of snow and soil moisture, the TP thermal status both in summer and in late winter and spring can influence the variation of Eastern Asian summer rainfall. A combined index using both snow cover over the TP and the ENSO index in winter shows a better seasonal forecast.
On the other hand, strong sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau in spring contributes significantly to anchor the earliest Asian monsoon being over the eastern Bay of Bengal （BOB） and the western Indochina peninsula. Qualitative prediction of the BOB monsoon onset was attempted by using the sign of meridional temperature gradient in March in the upper troposphere, or at 400 hPa over the TP. It is also demonstrated by a numerical experiment and theoretical study that the heating over the TP lea     

Progress in Predictability Studies in China （2003-2006）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly(2003),predictability studies in China have made significant progress.For dynamic forecasts,two novel approaches of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents were proposed to cope with the predictability problems of weather and climate,which are superior to the corresponding linear theory.A possible mechanism for the"spring predictability barrier"phenomenon for the El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)was provided based on a theoretical model.To improve the forecast skill of an intermediate coupled ENSO model,a new initialization scheme was developed,and its applicability was illustrated by hindcast experiments.Using the reconstruction phase space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method, Chinese scientists also proposed a new approach to improve dynamical extended range(monthly)prediction and successfully applied it to the monthly-scale predictability of short-term climate variations.In statistical forecasts,it was found that the effects of sea surface temperature on precipitation in China have obvious spatial and temporal distribution features,and that summer precipitation patterns over east China are closely related to the northern atmospheric circulation.For ensemble forecasts,a new initial perturbation method was used to forecast heavy rain in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces on 8 June 1998.Additionally, the ensemble forecast approach was also used for the prediction of a tropical typhoons.A new downscaling model consisting of dynamical and statistical methods was provided to improve the prediction of the monthly mean precipitation.This new downsealing model showed a relatively higher score than the issued operational forecast.     

新疆伽师强震群区基底界面结构特征

用射线分布分析法对伽师强震群区的高分辨折射地震剖面资料进行了更进一步的分析处理， 得到了伽师强震群区更完整的基底界面结构特征. 结果表明，在伽师强震群区地壳上部存在两个明显的结构界面:第一个界面的结构连续、完整，其埋深变化不大， 在2.6～3.3 km之间，为一向天山方向逐渐抬升、 近平直的倾斜界面；第二个界面的埋深变化较大， 在8.5～11.8 km之间，为古老的塔里木盆地结晶基底. 在约37 km桩号附近结晶基底有近2.5 km的深度突变， 推断可能是伽师强震群区超基底断裂所致. 以该断裂为界，结晶基底分为西南、东北两段. 每段内界面的埋深变化不大， 西南段的埋深约11.5 km， 东北段的埋深约为8.5～9.0 km，该段在从西南向东北整体抬升的背景上略有上隆，反映出在塔里木地块西北缘特殊的构造环境下上部地壳的变形特征.