云南暴雨涡散场动能转换函数的动态分析

对1996年云南主汛期（6－8月）逐日散度风动能和旋转风动能之间的转换函数C（KD,KR）特征进行深入研究,同时分析了C（KD,KR）各项Af、Az、B、C在动能转换函数中所起的作用。研究结果表明,对流层内C（KD,KR）＞0,同时对流层低层的C（K,KR）＞中高层的C（KD,KR）之和．极易出现暴雨过程;Af项在整个动能转换中起主要作用,71％的Af与C（KD,KR）具有相同的符号,Az项和B项在动能转换中起振荡作用,Az＋B控制着29％的动能转换方向。     

利用地基遥感方法监测大气中汽态、液态水含量分布特征的分析

文章根据1992～1994年4～6月间利用北京大学研制的新一代双通道共天线地基微波辐射计在河北省石家庄等地的监测资料,分析了晴空、有云无雨两种天气条件下,大气中积分汽态水、液态水含量的分布特征,两种相态大气含水量的相对分布特点。结果表明,在有云无雨的天气条件下,云中液态水积分含量仅占大气中总水量的1%,说明作为人工增雨资源条件的云中液态水含量仅占大气总水量的一小部分。因此,分析认为,以往通常采用大气中水汽含量评估人工增雨资源条件的方法,存在着不确切性。     

An installation system of deepwater risers by an S-lay vessel

Along with the consumption increase of the petroleum products,more countries have transferred their attentions to the offshore fields,especially the deepwater oil and gas reserves.For deepwater exploitation,the risers must be installed to act as the conduits connecting surface platforms to subsea facilities.In this paper,the typical risers sorted by different classes are introduced,and the correspondent installation methods are presented.By investigating the recent projects performed in the deepwater hot spots,and combining the challenges of HYSY201 for riser installation,a lifting device developed for assisting riser installation is proposed and detailed to satisfy the installation of deepwater risers in the LW3-1 Gas Field of in the South China Sea.Tests on both the functions and performances of such a new system exhibit the satisfaction of meeting all challenging requirements of HYSY201 for application to riser installation in waters up to a depth of in the South China Sea.     

气候变化背景下我国灾害风险治理路径初探

在全球气候变化背景下,自然灾害风险加剧,传统以政府为主体的灾害管理体制和机制已经无法有效应对自然灾害,因此开展国家在气候变化背景下的自然灾害综合风险治理具有重要意义和紧迫性。本文介绍了我国灾害管理体制的发展历程及转型过程,提出关于我国气候变化的自然灾害综合风险治理具体路径的建议措施,包括完善自然灾害综合风险治理体系,实现五个长效机制,加强应对气候变化的风险研究。     

环渤海地区1961—2007年极端强降水时空变化特征

20世纪90年代以来,环渤海地区降水总量持续偏少,极端强降水和干旱缺水问题十分突出。利用环渤海地区60个台站1961—2007年逐日降水资料,应用百分位方法确定极端强降水阈值,分析了极端强降水量、降水强度和频率的空间分布及时间变化趋势。结果表明:环渤海地区极端降水强度大、频率高的地区与年降水量高值区相一致,说明极端降水量的多少影响年降水量;极端降水日数呈减少趋势,特别是京津冀中部地区减少显著;极端降水多发生在7月中旬到8月中旬,最高频次在7月下旬,近10年极端降水季节分配比较分散,很少出现每候25站次以上的极端强降水;间隔30d以上的极端强降水近年来增加明显。     

太原大气能见度影响因子分析及能见度预报

利用2017年1月—2019年12月太原地区逐时气象资料,分析了能见度及其主要影响因子的变化特征,并对两次低能见度过程进行深入分析,构建了能见度预报模型并进行检验,结果表明:(1)从空间分布看,太原北部能见度明显高于南部地区。从时间分布看,太原地区平均能见度最大值出现在5月,最小值出现在1月;日间最低值出现在06:00(北京时,下同),冬季略向后推移,最高值出现在15:00前后。(2)2017—2019年太原地区低能见度分别出现93、84、79 d;低能见度发生时,干霾、湿霾发生频率分别为59.27%、40.73%;湿霾发生时,能见度降低更加明显。(3)所选个例中,能见度均随各影响因子有所起伏,干霾、湿霾过程中能见度分别与颗粒物浓度、相对湿度变化一致。(4)采用神经网络方法构建太原地区能见度预报模型,预报模型相关系数为0.81,均方根为4.43 km,平均绝对误差为17.39%,轻微级能见度的TS评分为87%。神经网络方法对太原地区能见度预报具有较高的参考价值。     

基于MaxEnt模型的薄壳山核桃气候适宜性区划

基于最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和GIS技术,提出一种薄壳山核桃气候适宜性区划方法。利用美国本土274个种植点,结合美国本土和中国云南省1981—2010年气候数据开展薄壳山核桃气候适宜性区划研究。结果表明：7月平均气温、年平均气温、30年极端最低气温、年降水量、3—5月降水量、年日照时数和4—5月日照时数为影响薄壳山核桃气候适宜性的主要气候因子。基于美国本土种植点构建的MaxEnt模型在该区域具有较高精度,但将模型直接外推用于中国云南省可靠性不足。因此,利用模拟区域和训练样本气候因子值域的偏离程度改进气候适宜性指数,并将云南省薄壳山核桃适宜性划分为最适宜、适宜、次适宜和不适宜4个等级。其中,最适宜区和适宜区分布于热量资源丰富、日照相对充足并具备较好冬季低温条件的亚热带地区和热带地区边缘。受云南省复杂地形和气候条件影响,区划结果呈现出破碎化分布。     

基于航测的珠三角气溶胶垂直分布及活化特性

2017年9月14—27日在珠江三角洲地区开展了6个架次飞机观测试验。利用飞行获取的气溶胶、云凝结核、云滴及常规气象探头观测资料,结合天气形势、气象条件及气团后向轨迹分析,研究了珠江三角洲地区深圳气溶胶数浓度及其谱的垂直分布特征,配合不同过饱和度条件下云凝结核浓度观测,分析了气溶胶活化特性。结果表明：在不同天气条件下,深圳低层气溶胶数浓度变化范围为500~9000 cm-3;边界层内气溶胶分布相对均匀,谱型随高度变化与气象条件相关。将6个架次气溶胶观测资料根据数浓度及谱型分为3种类型：类型Ⅰ为海洋型气溶胶,数浓度小,粒子尺度大,谱型呈双峰分布;类型Ⅲ为大陆型气溶胶,数浓度高,粒子尺度小,谱宽较宽且呈三峰分布;类型Ⅱ为海洋大陆影响型气溶胶,即受海洋和大陆共同影响,数浓度低于类型Ⅲ高于类型Ⅰ,谱型为双峰分布。拟合了包含海洋型及大陆型气溶胶的3个架次近地面云凝结核活化谱,计算了气溶胶在不同过饱和度条件下的活化效率。     

The increasing predominance of extreme precipitation in Southwest China since the late 1970s

Extreme precipitation events cause severe environmental and societal damage worldwide. Southwest China (SWC) is sensitive to such effects because of its overpopulation, underdevelopment, and fragile ecosystems. Using daily observations from 108 rain-gauge stations, the authors investigated the frequency of extreme precipitation events and their contribution to total precipitation in SWC since the late 1970s. Results indicate that total precipitation is decreasing insignificantly, but rainfall-events frequency is decreasing significantly, whereas the region is experiencing more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events. Note that although fewer stations are statistically significant, about 60% of the rain-gauge stations show an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation. Furthermore, there is an increasing trend in the contribution of total extreme precipitation to total precipitation, with extreme precipitation becoming dominant in the increasingly arid SWC region. The results carry important implications for policymakers, who should place greater emphasis on extreme precipitation and associated floods and landslides when drafting water-resource management policies.摘要本文分析了中国西南20世纪70年代末以来极端降水事件的频率, 强度及其对总降水的贡献. 结果表明, 该地区约60%的降水站点极端降水的频率和强度正在增加, 而大多数站点总降水频率明显减少. 同时极端降水总量对总降水量的贡献有显著增加的趋势, 极端降水在日益干旱的中国西南地区变得更具主导性. 研究结果提醒应更加重视极端降水及其可能引发的次生灾害, 如洪水, 山体滑坡等.     

Influence of positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipoles on ENSO via the Indonesian Throughflow: Results from sensitivity experiments

The role of the Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) in the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) on ENSO is investigated using version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program(POP2) ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate the results through sensitivity experiments on both positive and negative IOD events from observations and coupled general circulation model simulations. By shutting down the atmospheric bridge while maintaining the tropical oceanic channel, the IOD forcing is shown to influence the ENSO event in the following year, and the role of the ITF is emphasized. During positive IOD events,negative sea surface height anomalies(SSHAs) occur in the eastern Indian Ocean, indicating the existence of upwelling.These upwelling anomalies pass through the Indonesian seas and enter the western tropical Pacific, resulting in cold anomalies there. These cold temperature anomalies further propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and ultimately induce a La Nia-like mode in the following year. In contrast, during negative IOD events, positive SSHAs are established in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to downwelling anomalies that can also propagate into the subsurface of the western Pacific Ocean and travel further eastward. These downwelling anomalies induce negative ITF transport anomalies, and an El Nio-like mode in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that persists into the following year. The effects of negative and positive IOD events on ENSO via the ITF are symmetric. Finally, we also estimate the contribution of IOD forcing in explaining the Pacific variability associated with ENSO via ITF.