一种利用贝叶斯最小判别准则估计未来地震危险的新方法

提出了一种基于最大似然和贝叶斯最小判别准则的新预测方法,它的长处在于对样本数无特殊要求,所以,对低地震活动地区,此模型也能得到与时间有关的稳定的未来强震危险估计。最后,以华北地区为例,说明了本方法的可行性。     

鲁南地区城市房屋震害预测

在文献调查和现场调查的基础上,对鲁南地震重点监视防御区内城市房屋建筑的抗震能力做了分析,给出了抗震救灾重要房屋的单体预测结果、现有房屋的群体预测结果,并对房屋破坏造成的直接经济损失、人员伤亡进行了预测。文中指出了现有房屋的抗震薄弱环节,为该地区采取防震减灾对策提供了依据。     

豫北地区地震活动性及其与区域地壳运动的关系

本根据地震地质和地震分布条带,把豫北地区从西至东分为弱,中,强三个区段。由于区域地壳深部主断裂和大震活动的牵动作用,是造成本地震活动的重要原因,因而从区域地壳块体活动背景上探讨了本区及邻近地区地震活动趋势,中还指出,豫北西部太行山区的林县－薄壁地震带,虽不具有强震构造背景,但小震年月频率多寡和震群活动,却能反映了大区域地壳应力场强弱,亦可作为判断区域性地震活动的指标。     

山东中部一条明显的北西向中强地震带

长清－临沂地震带是山东中部一条明显的北西向中强地震带,由９次中强地震组成。这些地震沿北西向展布,主要分布在四个震源区,大致呈５０￣５５ｋｍ等间距分布。除１６６８年郯城地震与北北东向的郯庐断裂带有关外,其它地震受北西向蒙山断裂控制,是该断裂各为层段新活动的结果。另外,该地城带内地震的发生还有一定深部构造背景。未来应注意研究该带内再次发生中强地震的可能。     

微波遥感大气温度层结的原理和试验

一、引言 利用5毫米微波段大气辐射的地面遥感,反演大气温度压力层结。本文将讨论它的原理、仪器和试验结果。这项工作最初在北京大学进行原理性的探索。随后分别与上海气象仪器厂和北京768厂合作研制成A型微波辐射计及B型微波辐射计两种试验样机,并对两种试验样机作了野外考察试验。从观测结果上看,可以用它遥感十公里以下大气温度层结,低空逆温能够明显地反应,高空逆温反演误差较大。5公里以下均方根误差在2—3°K以内,5公里以上误差还要大些。     

Detecting Arctic snow and ice cover with FY-1D global data

Chinese meteorological satellite FY-1D can obtain global data from four spectral channels which include visible channel(0.58-0.68 μm) and infrared channels(0.84-0.89 μm,10.3-11.3 μm,11.5-12.5 μm).2366 snow and ice samples,2024 cloud samples,1602 land samples and 1648 water samples were selected randomly from Arctic imageries.Land and water can be detected by spectral features.Snow-ice and cloud can be classified by textural features.The classifier is Bayes classifier.By synthesizing five d ays classifying result of Arctic snow and ice cover area,complete Arctic snow and ice cover area can be obtained.The result agrees with NOAA/NESDIS IMS products up to 70%.     

Estimation of seasonal crop water consumption in a vineyard using Bowen ratio‐energy balance method

Information about seasonal crop water consumption is useful to develop the appropriate irrigation scheme. Measurements of energy balance components using the Bowen ratio method were made for a complete growing season at a vineyard in the arid region of northwest China. Vine in the experiment was furrow‐irrigated using a trellis system. The measured evapotranspiration was compared with estimates using the soil water balance method. It is shown that the Bowen ratio method provided accurate estimates of evapotranspiration from the vineyard and this requires that the Bowen ratio system is appropriately installed. The energy balance components showed typical diurnal pattern with peaks that occurred around the midday, except for the ground heat flux which delayed its peak by 2–3 h. The sensible heat flux was greater than the latent heat flux and followed the net radiation closely. The ratio of the latent heat flux to net radiation was low in the early growing season and increased over time. Under the limited irrigation experienced in the vineyard, the latent heat flux was controlled by available soil moisture and the total evapotranspiration in the growing season was 253 mm. The seasonal progression of the crop coefficient is similar to that reported in the literature, with the maximum occurring during the month of September. The crop coefficient can be estimated as a non‐linear function of day of year (DOY) and used to estimate evapotranspiration from vineyards in the region. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新冠疫情对中国国际航空网络连通性的影响及空间差异

航空运输在实现各国互联互通、推动全球经济发展中发挥着重要作用。突发公共卫生事件或恶劣天气等均易对航空网络的连通性造成影响。本研究以新冠疫情为例，从全球航空网络视角探讨新冠疫情对中国国际航空网络连通性的影响及地区差异。研究结果表明：疫情期间，中国境外通航城市、国际航班、国际航线数量均大幅缩减，航空网络连通效率显著降低，但其空间格局未发生根本性变化，东亚和东南亚仍是中国对外主要联系地区，经济联系与贸易仍然起着重要作用。航线停飞对中国与中亚、西亚和大洋洲航空网络的连通性影响最大，而航班缩减对中国与东亚、中亚和东南亚航空网络的连通性影响最大。在国内，北京、上海和广州仍然是中国对外联系的枢纽城市，且其聚集度在疫情期间得到提升。     

DNA barcode assessment of Ceramiales (Rhodophyta) in the intertidal zone of the northwestern Yellow Sea

A total of 142 specimens of Ceramiales(Rhodophyta) were collected each month from October 2011 to November 2012 in the intertidal zone of the northwestern Yellow Sea. These specimens covered 21 species,14 genera,and four families. Cluster analyses show that the specimens had a high diversity for the three DNA markers,namely,partial large subunit r RNA gene(LSU),universal plastid amplicon(UPA),and partial mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene(COI). No intraspecific divergence was found in our collection for these markers,except for a 1–3 bp divergence in the COI of Ceramium kondoi,Symphyocladia latiuscula,and Neosiphonia japonica. Because short DNA markers were used,the phylogenetic relationships of higher taxonomic levels were hard to evaluate with poor branch support. More than half species of our collection failed to find their matched sequences owing to shortage information of DNA barcodes for macroalgae in Gen Bank or BOLD(Barcode of Life Data) Systems. Three specimens were presumed as H eterosiphonia crispella by cluster analyses on DNA barcodes assisted by morphological identification,which was the first record in the investigated area,implying that it might be a cryptic or invasive species in the coastal area of northwestern Yellow Sea. In the neighbor-joining trees of all three DNA markers,H eterosiphonia japonica converged with D asya spp. and was distant from the other Heterosiphonia spp.,implying that H. japonica had affinities to the genus Dasya. The LSU and UPA markers amplified and sequenced easier than the COI marker across the Ceramiales species,but the COI had a higher ability to discriminate between species.     

Geochemical characteristics and LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb age of the Lanhualing granite in Ningguo,Anhui ProvinceEI北大核心CSCD

The Lanhualing tungsten-molybdenum deposit is a skarn-type deposit located in Ningguo county, Anhui province. This deposit is mainly hosted in the Yinzhubu Formation and the Yanwashan Formation of Ordovician, and genetically related to the Lanhualing granite. The Lanhualing granite belongs to high-K calc-alkaline series with high alkali (Na2O+K2O=4.00%-7.03%), SiO2 (67.87%-74.92%) and MgO (0.62%-1.23%) contents. The granitic rocks show right-dipping chondrite normalized REE patterns with weak δEu anomalies. The granitic rocks are relatively enriched in large ion lithophile elements (LILE) and depleted in high field strength elements (HFSE). The ore-bearing granite was dated at 148.17±0.94 Ma by LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb method. The late Yanshanian is the main tungsten mineralization epoch in the South Anhui-north Jiangxi area; and indeed, the Dongyuan, Zhuxi, Yangchuling, Dahutang and other large and super-large tungsten deposits were formed in this period. Geochemical Characteristics of the Lanhualing granite indicate a crustal source but with mantle input under tectonic regime of compression thickening. ©, 2015, Science Press. All right reserved.