Comparison of different land-surface perturbation methods in short-range ensemble forecasts

为了比较不同陆面扰动方法对短时集合预报的影响,本研究设计了陆面模式扰动实验(LSMPE),初始土壤湿度扰动实验(ISMPE),陆面-大气耦合系数扰动实验(LCCPE)以及大气扰动对照实验(GEFSPE).结果表明,在三组陆面扰动实验中,LSMPE能代表最大的不确定性且误差最小;ISMPE的离散度要比LCCPE稍大,但是...     

基于CERES观测数据的全球行星反照率时空变化特征分析

为了理解行星反照率时空变化规律及成因,基于CERES数据对全球行星反照率的大气(主要为云与气溶胶等)和地表贡献进行了分解,通过Theil-Sen+Mann-Kendall方法得到了2001～2018年全球行星反照率及其大气和地表贡献的时空变化趋势,并基于回归分析方法对典型区域的变化趋势进行了初步解释.研究结果表明:1)...     

陇东新近纪红粘土与第四纪黄土地球化学特征及其物源和风化指示意义

甘肃省平凉市灵台县邵寨镇剖面风尘堆积底界年龄大约为5.23 Ma B.P.,通过对该剖面新近纪红粘土与第四纪黄土-古土壤序列的常量元素、 微量元素、Nd同位素的测试,分析其在物源和风化方面的指示意义,发现新近纪红粘土与第四纪黄土具有相似的常量、 微量元素UCC标准化曲线和稀土元素球粒陨石标准化曲线,指示二者皆来自广阔的...     

川中地区中二叠统栖霞组滩控岩溶型白云岩储层特征及主控因素

四川盆地中部地区栖霞组的白云岩是该区主要储层,储层成因的主流观点是热液白云岩化.目前勘探实践发现,优质储渗体形成与早期相控岩溶作用有关.通过取芯及测录井资料进行了详细分析,研究结果表明,该类白云岩储层主要位于栖霞组中上部颗粒滩发育的地层中,按其宏微观产出状态可分为溶斑状云岩、溶洞充填云岩、针孔状基质云岩和致密基质云岩....     

辽宁省霾天气季节变化特征及其主导因子分析

利用辽宁省51个地面气象观测站的能见度、均一化相对湿度和天气现象资料,采用最优距离法和固定比例法对能见度资料进行一致性处理,重建了1961—2020年的辽宁省逐日霾资料,并利用该资料对辽宁省年和四季霾日时空变化特征和主导因子进行分析。结果表明,1961—2020年辽宁省平均年霾日呈显著增加趋势[2.1 d·(10 a)^-1],但2015年以来霾日显著减少;空间上,年和四季霾日呈现一致的分布特征,均存在1个高值中心(沈阳)和2个副高值中心(北票和锦州),年平均霾日分别为139、52、46 d,辽东和辽西山区为霾日低发区,年平均霾日在20 d以内。风向和风速是霾日形成的重要气象因子,西南偏南风增加带来的暖湿气流对春季、夏季和秋季霾日的形成贡献较大,北风的减少则对冬季霾日的形成贡献较大。霾发生时辽宁省春季、夏季和秋季发生西南偏南风的频率分别由11.4%、12.1%和8.0%增加至15.8%、19.8%和13.5%,冬季则表现为北风发生频率的减少和静风发生频率的增加;霾发生时四季风速均较平均状况偏小,说明小风有利于霾的形成。辽宁省霾长期演变受到污染物排放、风力因子和环境政...     

Dynamic propagation criteria for catastrophic failure in planar landslides

Quantitative assessment of the risk of submarine landslides is an essential part of the design process for offshore oil and gas developments in deep water, beyond the continental shelf. Landslides may be triggered by a reduction in shear strength of subsea sediments over a given zone, caused for example by seismic activity. Simple criteria are then needed to identify critical conditions whereby the zone of weakness could grow catastrophically to cause a landslide. A number of such criteria have been developed over the last decade, based either on ideas drawn from fracture mechanics, or considering the equilibrium of the initial weakened zone and adjacent process zones of gradually softening material. Accounting for the history of the weak zone initiation is critical for derivation of reliable propagation criteria, in particular considering dynamic effects arising from accumulating kinetic energy of the failing material, which will allow the failure to propagate from a smaller initial zone of weakened sediments. Criteria are developed here for planar conditions, taking full account of such dynamic effects, which are shown to be capable of reducing the critical length of the softened zone by 20% or more compared with criteria based on static conditions. A numerical approach is used to solve the governing dynamic equations for the sliding material, the results from which justify assumptions that allow analytical criteria to be developed for the case where the initial softening occurs instantaneously. The effect of more gradual softening is also explored. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigation into the daily precipitation variability in the Yangtze River Delta,China

In this article, by using the daily precipitation data measured at 58 meteorological stations, spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation including zero rainfall values (called “precipitation”) and without zero rainfall values (called “rain”) and four precipitation extrema (P₀, P₂₀, P₅₀, and P₁₀₀ representing the daily precipitation with the magnitude smaller than 0.1 mm, bigger than 20 mm, 50 mm, and 100 mm per day, respectively) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) during 1958–2007 were analyzed, and the effects of urbanization were further investigated. Results indicate that (i) differing from the downward trends in 1958–1985, daily precipitation and rain in 1986–2007 show slowly downward trends in the mid YRD but show upward trends in the northern and southern YRD. (ii) Spatial and temporal variability of the rain is more complex than daily precipitation. Both of them become smaller but show more obvious fluctuations in 1986–2007. (iii) Urbanizations cause not only the urban rainfall island problem but also more obvious fluctuations of rain intensity in the mid YRD, reflecting more uncertainty of daily precipitation variability. (iv) Urbanizations have little effects on the variability of P₀ and P₁₀₀ but cause notable increases of P₂₀ and P₅₀. (v) The spatial variability of daily precipitation and precipitation extrema in 1958–1985 clearly shows a breakpoint at 30°20′N latitude, but the breakpoint disappears afterward because of the effects of urbanization. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can Eddy Forcing be Responsible for the Spatial Structure of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode?

In order to study the origin of the spatial structure of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM),a linear stochastic model is constructed empirically from the output of a GCM run.Optimal stochastic forcing in terms of the maximum variance contribution,which may be potentially related to the maintenance of the NAM,is investigated.Theoretical analysis on the dominant non-modal response to the stochastic forcing shows that this dominance is jointly decided by the properties of forcing and the non-modal grow...     

Dynamic analysis of a cylindrical casing–cement structure in a poroelastic stratum

The transient response of a cylindrical casing–cement structure in a poroelastic stratum under dynamic radial tractions is one of the significant issues during the analysis of downhole operations and the selection of safe material. Based on the Biot theory and general elastic mechanics, this paper gives a set of exact solutions for radial displacement, stresses for the casing–cement system and the pore pressure of the infinite surrounding poroelastic stratum in the Laplace transform space. Solutions are presented for three different types of transient radial loadings acting on the surface of casing, i.e., suddenly applied constant load, gradually applied step load and triangular pulse load. Time domain solutions are obtained using a reliable numerical method of inverse Laplace transforms. A detailed parametric study about the transient response is presented both at the casing–cement interface and the cement–stratum interface, and the distributions of the pore pressure and the effective stresses in the stratum are also examined. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discrete wavelet‐based trend identification in hydrologic time series

Trend identification is a substantial issue in hydrologic series analysis, but it is also a difficult task in practice due to the confusing concept of trend and disadvantages of methods. In this article, an improved definition of trend was given as follows: ‘a trend is the deterministic component in the analysed data and corresponds to the biggest temporal scale on the condition of giving the concerned temporal scale’. It emphasizes the intrinsic and deterministic properties of trend, can clearly distinguish trend from periodicities and points out the prerequisite of the concerned temporal scale only by giving which the trend has its specific meaning. Correspondingly, the discrete wavelet‐based method for trend identification was improved. Differing from those methods used presently, the improved method is to identify trend by comparing the energy difference between hydrologic data and noise, and it can simultaneously separate periodicities and noise. Furthermore, the improved method can quantitatively estimate the statistical significance of the identified trend by using proper confidence interval. Analyses of both synthetic and observed series indicated the identical power of the improved method as the Mann–Kendall test in assessing the statistical significance of the trend in hydrologic data, and by using the former, the identified trend can adaptively reflect the nonlinear and nonstationary variability of hydrologic data. Besides, the results also showed the influences of three key factors (wavelet choice, decomposition level choice and noise content) on discrete wavelet‐based trend identification; hence, they should be carefully considered in practice. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.