南亚高压与偏北风急流出口区的暴雨生成机制

利用MM4中尺度模式，模拟了1998年7月21日08:00~22日08:00(北京时)，一次西北风急流的暴雨过程。分析发现，西北风高空急流与南亚高压环流形成的辐散辐合场导致一对中尺度正反环流的生成，使暴雨得以维持与加强。在暴雨区北部，中高层条件性对称不稳定可使下沉运动加速，对北支环流的维持起关键作用；雨区南部，南支环流圈的维持与高层北风中心的加强有关。北支环流圈的加强以及动量下传使暴雨区北部低层的北风分量维持。该北风分量与雨区南部环流的南风分量形成低层辐合。     

首都北京及周边地区大气、水、土环境污染机理与调控原理

在国家科技部大力支持、中国气象局统一部署下,项目首席徐祥德与项目总顾问周秀骥及项目专家组共同部署了BECAPEX(北京环境大气监测)2002年现场科学试验计划,并提出科学数据分析研究重点与卫星、遥感信息等多学科技术的综合应用研究计划与实施方案.本项目在2002年现场观测资料分析与理论研究方面取得了重要进展.     

THE DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE ANOMALOUS ENSO DEVELOPMENTS IN 1990S

By using the wavelet transform method,the ENSO(2—7 a)signal and the decadal variability(8—20 a)are filtered out from the long-term SST data sets in order to investigate characteristicsof the decadal variability and its impact on the ENSO.It is found that there are two different kindsof decadal SSTA modes-horseshoe and horse saddle patterns in the tropical Pacific.Thehorseshoe pattern represents that the decadal SSTA variability in the central Pacific is in phasewith that in the eastern Pacific.The horse saddle pattern is named that they are out of phase.Theformer constituted the decadal variability before 1990s and the latter mainly prevailed during1990s.As the response of atmosphere to the ocean,two decadal wind patterns appear inassociation with the SST decadal modes.One is characterized by anomalous development of thezonal wind,the other by anomalous development of the meridional wind.These two kinds ofmodes can also be regarded as different phases of the decadal oscillation.Further studies haveshown that the influences of the two kinds of modes on the ENSO are different.The horse saddlemode has a stronger impact on the ENSO than the horseshoe mode.A possible mechanism for the influence of the decadal variability on the ENSO signal ispresented.The central part of the thermocline along the equatorial Pacific moves up or downsimultaneously with its eastern part while the decadal variability bears the horseshoe pattern.Butthe two segments of the thermocline in the central and eastern Pacific act oppositely while thedecadal variability shows the horse saddle pattern.In this case it has an-influence on the individualENSO'events by the superposition of the decadal variability.     

维向切变流中的非线性对称不稳定

讨论了维向切变流中的非线性对称不稳定问题。中采用绝热无粘的非线性对称扰动方程组，利用多尺度摄动方法分析其不稳定波动的有限振幅特性。研究结果表明：不稳定波的有限振幅在强度上呈现出振荡趋势。无论是超临界切变情况，还是次临界切变情况，对称扰动振幅都随时间呈现出周期性的变化，振荡周期的大小不仅与基本场稳定度参数及波的特性有关，而且还与初始扰动的振幅及其增长率有关。     

强震时-空综合概率增益模型与中长期预测方法效能研究

本文在介绍强震时-空概率增益综合预测模型与单项地震预测方法效能评价指标的基础上，给出了各种中长期预测方法的概率增益统计值和预测效能R值。并对结果进行了讨论。     

THE DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE ANOMALOUS ENSO DEVELOPMENTS IN 1990S*

By using the wavelet transform method,the ENSO (2-7 a) signal and the decadal variability (8-20 a) are filtered out from the long-term SST data sets in order to investigate characteristics of the decadal variability and its impact on the ENSO.It is found that there are two different kinds of decadal SSTA modes-horseshoe and horse saddle patterns in the tropical Pacific.The horseshoe pattern represents that the decadal SSTA variability in the central Pacific is in phase with that in the eastern Pacific.The horse saddle pattern is named that they are out of phase.The former constituted the decadal variability before 1990s and the latter mainly prevailed during 1990s.As the response of atmosphere to the ocean,two decadal wind patterns appear in association with the SST decadal modes.One is characterized by anomalous development of the zonal wind,the other by anomalous development of the meridional wind.These two kinds of modes can also be regarded as different phases of the decadal oscillation.Further studies have shown that the influences of the two kinds of modes on the ENSO are different.The horse saddle mode has a stronger impact on the ENSO than the horseshoe mode.A possible mechanism for the influence of the decadal variability on the ENSO signal is presented.The central part of the thermocline along the equatorial Pacific moves up or down simultaneously with its eastern part while the decadal variability bears the horseshoe pattern.But the two segments of the thermocline in the central and eastern Pacific act oppositely while the decadal variability shows the horse saddle pattern.In this case it has an-influence on the individual ENSO'events by the superposition of the decadal variability.     

中国大陆及其邻域的瑞利波群速度分布图象与地壳上地幔速度结构

利用中国数字化地震台网（CDSN）11个台站和周边地区的11个IRIS数字化地震台站记录的长周期面波资料，用多重滤波方法测定了在647条不同路径上周期从10～92ｓ的基阶瑞利波群速度频散曲线．采用Dimtar Yanovskaya方法，反演得到北纬18～54、东经70～140范围内，25个中心周期的群速度分布图象．结果表明:在10～15.9s周期范围内，群速度分布存在着明显的横向不均匀性．其分区分块特征与大地构造单元有着密切的对应关系，两个明显的低速区域分别位于塔里木盆地和东海及北部邻域；从21～33ｓ逐渐显示出深部构造块体的格局；在36.6～40ｓ周期附近的群速度分布图象中，十分清晰地显示出中国大陆岩石圈结构的分区特征，南北地震带、青藏高原、华北、华南块体及东北地块的边界非常明显．本文给出了沿30N、38N 纬线和沿90E、120E 经线剖面的群速度随周期分布图象．在这些剖面上，较明显地展示出中国大陆及其邻域地壳上地幔速度结构的基本特征．各构造块体的深部速度结构差异较大，在青藏高原东部地区的地壳中部存在局部低速区域；塔里木盆地、扬子地台的上地幔速度较高，显示出稳定地台特征；华北平原上地幔低速层的埋深浅、厚度大；东海及日本海的上地幔速度较低，这可能与菲律宾板块下插产生的摩擦热与喜山期以来受强烈拉张有密切的关系．      

IMPROVEMENTS OF A DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGY MODEL DHSVM AND ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL-HYDROLOGICAL OFF-LINE SIMULATIONAL EXPERIMENTS

The advanced distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model DHSVM,developed by Wigmostaet al.(1994)is introduced from US Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.To apply DHSVM inChina for the first time some improvements have been made in terms of the basin characteristics:1)to change evapotranspiration model,using the improved Penman-Monteith approach in place ofthe original one;2)to change the model structure,inserting datasets from 4 stations to grid cellsfor each river basin,instead of datasets from one or two stations;3)to develop new hydrology,vegetation and soil parameterization schemes for improving the simulated results,with focus oncalculation and adjustment of 11 parameters,such as soil porosity (?),field capacity θ_(fc),leaf areaindex LAI,stochastic resistance γ_s,among the total 33 parameters.Then the improved DHSVM isdriven by observed datasets for Luanhe River Basin and Sanggan River Basin,respectively.Thesimulated evapotranspiration(ET),runoff,snow water equivalent,water table,soil moisture andpercolation are then gained as DHSVM outputs.The simulated ET shows that the highest peakappears in May or June instead of July or August.This is consistent with the real situations,owing to the improvement of ET model.The simulated runoff process and flood peak are quiteconsistent with the observed ones.The model efficiency values for Luanhe River and SangganRiver Basins are 0.89 and 0.82,respectively,which shows high simulating ability of the modelsystem for both relatively humid and dry basins.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS BY NESTING HYDROLOGY MODEL DHSVM WITH REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL RegCM2/CHINA

Based on improvement of a distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM for short)and its application to North China,a nested regional climatic-hydrologic model system is developedby connecting DHSVM with RegCM2/China.The simulated climate scenarios,including controland 2×CO_2 outputs,are downscaled to 8 stations in Luanhe River and Sanggan River Basins todrive the hydrology model.According to simulation results,under double CO_2 scenarios,annualmean temperature and evapotranspiration will increase 2.8C and 29 mm,respectively;precipitation also increase but with different value for each basin,6 mm for Luanhe River Basinwhile 46 mm for Sanggan River Basin;runoff change for the two basins is different too,27 mmdecrease for Luanhe River Basin while 26 mm increase for Sanggan River Basin.As a result,therunoff in future for Luanhe River Basin and Sanggan River Basin will be 74 mm and 71 mm,respectively,which is approximately a quarter of annual mean runoff(284 mm)of the wholecountry.Total streamflow for the two basins will decrease about 2.5×10~8m~3.All these indicatethat the warm and dry trend will continue in the two river basins under double CO_2 scenarios.Thenested model system,with both climatic and hydrologic prediction ability,could also be applied toother basins in China by parameter adjustment.     

公路工程地质遥感勘察

卫星遥感技术应用在公路选线中，具有常规方法无可比拟的优势。在湖南省常德-吉首高速公路初勘研究中，以正射航空相片，Landsat-TM数字图像为主要信息源，通过数据处理和地学遥感判释，并综合分析其它资料，对常吉公路沿线地区进行了地质构造。地层，地貌。地表水，第四系等遥感专题调查。探讨分析了不良地质现象分布规律。形成背景及发展演化趋势。在此基础上比较各设计线路之优缺点。并提出科学合理的建议线路方案。方法对自然条件十分复杂的西部公路建设有较好的借鉴意义。