Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测

建立了一套完整的Bayes判别分析方法,并提出了明确的衡量综合预测结果所冒风险大小的风险代价比Kdn该方法可用于不同时间尺度的地震综合预测。选取云南地区1994～1996年的水氡观测资料,采用X2统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用Bayes判别分析方法对云南地区的强震活动性进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下,内符检验的R值可达0．54,外推时空占有率0．07,获得了满意的效果。     

锈蚀钢筋混凝土框架中节点抗剪强度研究

随着服役时间的增长，侵蚀环境下钢筋混凝土框架节点因钢筋发生不同程度的锈蚀而造成承载性能下降，严重影响建筑结构的安全使用。本文在已有钢筋混凝土框架节点抗剪强度理论模型的基础上，考虑钢筋锈蚀对框架节点受力性能的影响，建立锈蚀钢筋混凝土框架中节点受剪承载力计算公式。通过11组锈蚀钢筋混凝土节点试验数据，对建议理论模型进行验证。研究结果表明，锈蚀钢筋混凝土节点受剪承载力试验值与理论计算值之比的平均值为0.951，方差为0.075，二者吻合较好，本文建议的计算方法可用于锈蚀钢筋混凝土框架中节点承载力分析。     

三峡工程及其邻近地区实测现今构造应力场

不少学者对三峡及其邻近区域的现今构造应力场用不同方法作过研究,但结论不一致。本文根据本区100多个地应力实测资料,分析了该地区的现今构造应力场,特别是最大水平主压应力方向的展布以及随深度的变化,认为本区现今构造应力场的最大主压应力方向为北西方向,应力值的量级属中等。     

用路径积分法求解电子的衍射态

本文用费曼的路径积分方法求解出自由电子经狭缝衍射后的量子态及在观察屏处的几率分布，所得结果与光子的夫琅和费衍射相同。     

Oxygen isotope compositions of quartz grains (4–16 μm) from Chinese eolian deposits and their implications for provenance

Oxygen isotope compositions were measured in quartz grains extracted from a 7.0 Ma red clay-loess sequence at Lingtai and six late Pleistocene loess sediments (Malan loess). Results show that the changes in oxygen isotope compositions of Malan loess are basically controlled by the geochemical characteristics of the source materials, while the effect of weathering process after dust deposition could be minor. The oxygen isotope distribution of quartz grains from red clay at Lingtai is similar to that of the overlying loess-paleosol sequence, thus indicating that the red clay at Lingtai has the same eolian origin as the loess-paleosol deposits. Furthermore, the oscillations of the isotope compositions in 4–16 μm-sized quartz grains may reflect the changes, to some extent, of the climatic systems of the source region.     

Morphological response of tidal marshes,flats and channels of the Outer Yangtze River mouth to a major storm

Systematic morphological changes of the coastline of the outer Yangtze River mouth in response to storms versus calm weather were documented by daily surveys of tidal marshes and flats between April 1999 and May 2001 and by boat surveys offshore during this and earlier periods. The largest single event during 1999 to 2001 was Typhoon Paibaian, which eroded the unvegetated tidal flat and lower marsh and led to accretion on the middle-to-upper marsh and in the subtidal channel. The greatest erosion of 21 cm occurred at the border between the marsh and the unvegetated flat due to the landward retreat of the marsh edge during the storm. Strong waves on the flats increased suspended sediment concentration by 10–20 times. On the upper marsh, where the frequency of submergence by astronomical tides is only 3%, Typhoon Paibian led to 4 cm of accretion, accounting for 57% of the net accretion observed over the 2-yr study. Typhoon Paibian led to 4 cm of accretion, accounting for 57% of the net accretion observed over the 2-yr study. Typhoon Paibian and other large storms in the 1990s caused over 50 cm of accretion along the deep axis of the river mouth outlet channel. During calm weather, when hydrodynamic energy was dominated by tides, deposition was centered on the unvegetated flats and lower, marsh with little deposition on the high marsh and erosion in the subtidal channel. Depositional recovery of the tidal flat from typhoon-induced erosion took only several days, whereas recovery of the subtidal channel by erosion took several weeks. A conceptual model for the morphological responses of tidal marshes, flats, and subtidal channels to storms and calm weather is proposed such that sediment continually moves from regions of highest near-bed energy towards areas of lower energy.     

基于GIS的土地利用规划公众参与研究

在介绍公众参与在土地利用规划中的地位、作用、方式的基础上,提出将GIS应用于土地利用规划公众参与,提出了GIS辅助土地利用规划公众参与的主要功能,对照国内外GIS应用探讨了GIS辅助土地利用规划公众参与的模式,结合土地利用规划各阶段公众参与的特点提出的GIS辅助土地利用规划公众参与的框架。     

测绘在新农村建设中存在的问题和对策

新农村建设也像城市一样，必须有测绘为其提供服务与保障。本文重点对测绘在新农村建设中存在的突出问题进行了深入分析，并就如何进一步推进新农村建设测绘工作提出了建议和对策。     

石油物探测量中采用GPS RTK技术不利因素的分析

高精度GPS实时差分(RTK)定位技术是目前各领域最广泛使用的测量技术之一,尤其是在石油物探测量中,提高了测量成果的精度,满足了三维和高分辨率地震勘探的要求,提高了作业速度,减轻了测量人员的劳动强度,从而深受人们的青睐。本文从RTK基准站选择、转换参数求取、数据链传输、流动站作业过程等方面,探讨了石油物探测量中对RTK技术的不利因素及处理方法。     

“96·8”华北暴雨数值模拟与稳定性分析

分析1996年8月发生在华北地区的台风暴雨过程的环流形势，发现：副热带高压与台风低压之间的气压梯度很大，宽广的偏南急流源源不断地向北输送水汽和能量，而太行山一带正处于汇合区，构成十分有利的暴雨天气形势。应用MM5数值预报方法对1996年8月4—5日的降雨天气过程进行数值模拟，并依据天气学原理和位涡理论对此过程的稳定性进行分析认为：（1）MM5数值预报模式较好地模拟出了台风暴雨的物理过程。（2）此次降雨的不稳定层结有南高北低现象，同时有对称不稳定和对流不稳定存在；条件性对称不稳定可使环流加速，对降水有一定的增幅作用。