Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Macrofauna Communities in the Eastern Mediterranean Deep Sea

Abstract. During two expeditions with RV ‘Meteor’ in summer 1993 and winter 1997/98 the structural and functional diversity of the benthic system of the highly oligotrophic eastern Mediterranean deep sea was investigated. The macrofauna communities were dominated by polychaetes even at the deepest stations. The fauna at shallow stations was dominated by surface deposit feeders, whereas subsurface deposit feeders and predators generally increased with depth. A high percentage of suspension‐feeding Porifera was found in the Levantine Basin. Mean abundance and number of taxa of both expeditions were significantly correlated to depth and distance to the nearest coast as well as to the total organic carbon (TOC) content in sediments. Numbers of taxa and abundance decreased generally with depth, although lowest numbers were not found at the deepest stations but in the extremely oligotrophic Levantine and Ierapetra Basin. Biomass measured during the second cruise was extremely low in the Ierapetra Basin and comparable to other extreme oligotrophic seas. The significant correlations found for TOC contents and macrofauna with distance to coast during both expeditions apparently reflect the role of hydrographically governed transport of organic matter produced in coastal regions into greater and extreme depths of the Mediterranean Sea. Seasonal differences in macrofauna communities due to seasonal differences in food supply were not found. However, recent large‐scale hydrographic changes (Eastern Mediterranean Transient, EMT) might change the oligotrophy and, thus, the structure of the benthic communities in the Eastern Mediterranean deep sea.     

FAUST observations near the North Galactic Pole

We analyse a UV observation with FAUST in the direction of the North Galactic Pole. The region includes a cirrus cloud (G251.2+73.3) and a dark globule, and the FAUST image contains 75 UV sources. We discuss the UV source detection and their identification with optical counterparts. We use, for the first time, low-resolution spectral information as the primary means of identifying possible optical counterparts. This is complemented, and sometimes modified, by optical information available from existing data bases. The results are interpreted with the help of maps of the distribution of far-infrared emission and of the neutral hydrogen gas. We discuss the types of objects found, the degree of matching with the predictions of our UV Galaxy model, and the general behaviour of the Galactic UV extinction in this Milky Way part. We compare the UV results for this region with similar observations in the same neighbourhood, which are less affected by dust, and attempt to explain the peculiar distribution of UV magnitudes as a result of a peculiar distribution of foreground dust, which does not follow the accepted dust-to-gas relation.     

Exploring the impact of diagenesis on (isotope) geochemical and microstructural alteration features in biogenic aragonite

For the Quaternary and Neogene, aragonitic biogenic and abiogenic carbonates are frequently exploited as archives of their environment. Conversely, pre‐Neogene aragonite is often diagenetically altered and calcite archives are studied instead. Nevertheless, the exact sequence of diagenetic processes and products is difficult to disclose from naturally altered material. Here, experiments were performed to understand biogenic aragonite alteration processes and products. Shell subsamples of the bivalve Arctica islandica were exposed to hydrothermal alteration. Thermal boundary conditions were set at 100°C, 175°C and 200°C. These comparably high temperatures were chosen to shorten experimental durations. Subsamples were exposed to different ¹⁸O‐depleted fluids for durations between two and twenty weeks. Alteration was documented using X‐ray diffraction, cathodoluminescence, fluorescence and scanning electron microscopy, as well as conventional and clumped isotope analyses. Experiments performed at 100°C show redistribution and darkening of organic matter, but lack evidence for diagenetic alteration, except in Δ₄₇ which show the effects of annealing processes. At 175°C, valves undergo significant aragonite to calcite transformation and neomorphism. The δ¹⁸O signature supports transformation via dissolution and reprecipitation, but isotopic exchange is limited by fluid migration through the subsamples. Individual growth increments in these subsamples exhibit bright orange luminescence. At 200°C, valves are fully transformed to calcite and exhibit purple‐blue luminescence with orange bands. The δ¹⁸O and Δ₄₇ signatures reveal exchange with the aqueous fluid, whereas δ¹³C remains unaltered in all experiments, indicating a carbonate‐buffered system. Clumped isotope temperatures in high‐temperature experiments show compositions in broad agreement with the measured temperature. Experimentally induced alteration patterns are comparable with individual features present in Pleistocene shells. This study represents a significant step towards sequential analysis of diagenetic features in biogenic aragonites and sheds light on reaction times and threshold limits. The limitations of a study restricted to a single test organism are acknowledged and call for refined follow‐up experiments.     

Calcium-isotope fractionation in selected modern and ancient marine carbonates

The calcium-isotope composition (δ^44/42Ca) was analyzed in modern, Cretaceous and Carboniferous marine skeletal carbonates as well as in bioclasts, non-skeletal components, and diagenetic cements of Cretaceous and Carboniferous limestones. In order to gain insight in Ca²⁺_aq-CaCO₃-isotope fractionation mechanisms in marine carbonates, splits of samples were analyzed for Sr, Mg, Fe, and Mn concentrations and for their oxygen and carbon isotopic composition. Biological carbonates generally have lower δ^44/42Ca values than inorganic marine cements, and there appears to be no fractionation between seawater and marine inorganic calcite. A kinetic isotope effect related to precipitation rate is considered to control the overall discrimination against ⁴⁴Ca in biological carbonates when compared to inorganic precipitates. This is supported by a well-defined correlation of the δ^44/42Ca values with Sr concentrations in Cretaceous limestones that contain biological carbonates at various stages of marine diagenetic alteration. No significant temperature dependence of Ca-isotope fractionation was found in shells of Cretaceous rudist bivalves that have recorded large seasonal temperature variations as derived from δ¹⁸O values and Mg concentrations. The reconstruction of secular variations in the δ^44/42Ca value of seawater from well preserved skeletal calcite is compromised by a broad range of variation found in both modern and Cretaceous biological carbonates, independent of chemical composition or mineralogy. Despite these variations that may be due to still unidentified biological fractionation mechanisms, the δ^44/42Ca values of Cretaceous skeletal calcite suggest that the δ^44/42Ca value of Cretaceous seawater was 0.3-0.4‰ lower than that of the modern ocean.     

A method to determine crystallization temperatures of hydrated crystals by intracrystalline oxygen isotope effects

The fractionation of the oxygen isotopes between water molecules from different sites in CuSO₄ · 5H₂O has been measured for crystallization temperatures of 25, 40 and 50°C. The temperature dependence found provides a basis for the determination of crystallization temperatures from such intracrystalline oxygen isotope effects; also for hydrated crystals of mineralogical and geological interest. Necessary suppositions for the application of this method are discussed.     

Isoseismals of the strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976

Summary Isoseismal maps of the three strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976 were compiled using the contributions from European countries within the shaken area. The characteristic features of the macroseismic fields are discussed.