Forecasting monthly precipitation in Central Chile: a self-organizing map approach using filtered sea surface temperature

Western South America is subject to considerable inter-annual variability due to El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) so forecasting inter-annual variations associated with ENSO would provide an opportunity to tailor management decisions more appropriately to the season. On one hand, the self-organizing maps (SOM) method is a suitable technique to explore the association between sea surface temperature and precipitation fields. On the other hand, Wavelet transform is a filtering technique, which allows the identification of relevant frequencies in signals, and also allows localization on time. Taking advantage of both methods, we present a method to forecast monthly precipitation using the SOM trained with filtered SST anomalies. The use of the SOM to forecast precipitation for Chillan showed good agreement between forecasted and measured values, with correlation coefficients (r ²) ranging from 0.72 to 0.91, making the combined use filtered SST fields and SOM a suitable tool to assist water management, for example in agricultural water management. The method can be easily tailored to be applied in other stations or to other variables.     

Elastic behavior of vanadinite,Pb<Subscript>10</Subscript>(VO<Subscript>4</Subscript>)<Subscript>6</Subscript>Cl<Subscript>2</Subscript>, a microporous non-zeolitic mineral

The high-pressure behavior of a vanadinite (Pb₁₀(VO₄)₆Cl₂, a = b = 10.3254(5), c = 7.3450(4) Å, space group P6₃/m), a natural microporous mineral, has been investigated using in-situ HP-synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction up to 7.67 GPa with a diamond anvil cell under hydrostatic conditions. No phase transition has been observed within the pressure range investigated. Axial and volume isothermal Equations of State (EoS) of vanadinite were determined. Fitting the P–V data with a third-order Birch-Murnaghan (BM) EoS, using the data weighted by the uncertainties in P and V, we obtained: V ₀ = 681(1) Å³, K ₀ = 41(5) GPa, and K′ = 12.5(2.5). The evolution of the lattice constants with P shows a strong anisotropic compression pattern. The axial bulk moduli were calculated with a third-order “linearized” BM-EoS. The EoS parameters are: a ₀ = 10.3302(2) Å, K ₀(a) = 35(2) GPa and K′(a) = 10(1) for the a-axis; c ₀ = 7.3520(3) Å, K ₀(c) = 98(4) GPa, and K′(c) = 9(2) for the c-axis (K ₀(a):K ₀(c) = 1:2.80). Axial and volume Eulerian-finite strain (fe) at different normalized stress (Fe) were calculated. The weighted linear regression through the data points yields the following intercept values: Fe _a (0) = 35(2) GPa for the a-axis, Fe _c (0) = 98(4) GPa for the c-axis and Fe _V (0) = 45(2) GPa for the unit-cell volume. The slope of the regression lines gives rise to K′ values of 10(1) for the a-axis, 9(2) for the c-axis and 11(1) for the unit cell-volume. A comparison between the HP-elastic response of vanadinite and the iso-structural apatite is carried out. The possible reasons of the elastic anisotropy are discussed.     

Geochemical hazard evaluation of sulphide-rich iron mines: The Rio Marina district (Elba Island,Italy)

Rio Marina mining district (Elba Island) is characterised by hematite + pyrite ore association and was exploited for iron till 1981, leaving waste rock dumps of several millions m³. The effect of open pit mining activity in this site is to produce acid mine drainage (AMD) processes leading to environmental pollution, testified by all the sampled waters (Giove stream, drainage channels, superficial pools and settling basin) which have pH values ranging from 2.08 to 3.35 and heavy metal concentrations that reach 903.16 mg/l for Fe, 45.02 mg/l for Mn, 10.08 mg/l for Zn and 1.75 mg/l for Cu. In the present work a space and time related approach to geochemical hazard evaluation was applied. The geochemical hazard is mainly related to high heavy metal concentration, acid mine drainage processes development and topographic setting. As all these parameters are related in space, hazard evaluation was performed by geostatistical methods. Fifty-four earth material samples (residual soils, waste rocks or debris materials) were collected in a central aligned 100 m mesh square grid. These were analysed for major elements by XRF, for Cu, Pb, Zn by ICP-AES and for AMD potential following the AMIRA procedure. The concentration of heavy metals was compared with Italian law limits. The overlap of Cu, Pb and Zn content maps show that at least one of these heavy metals exceed law limits in all the area. The AMD test results show that more than 50% of samples have a positive NAPP (Net Acid Producing Potential) that could reach 258.9 kg H₂SO₄/t. According to the obtained data, three main geochemical hazard classes were established and their distribution in the mining area was assessed. About 51% of the mining area surface belongs to the major hazard class, where AMD process occurs, about 49% belongs to an intermediate hazard class, where AMD process could occur only if certain conditions are met. Finally, the persistence of the AMD process in the Rio Marina area was evaluated on the basis of yearly rainfall, mining waters pH and NAPP values. A complete leaching of the first 0.25 m of the earth materials can retain the current environmental conditions for several centuries.     

The first crocodyliform from the Chubut Group (Chubut Province, Argentina) and its phylogenetic position within basal Mesoeucrocodylia

A new crocodyliform specimen is presented here found in the Cerro Castaño Member of the Cerro Barcino Formation (Chubut Group). The material consists of cranial and postcranial remains that represent a new taxon that has strong affinities with Peirosauridae, but also shares derived features present in Araripesuchus. The phylogenetic relationships of this new taxon were tested through a cladistic analysis depicting it as a member of the Peirosauridae. The inclusion of Barcinosuchus within this clade of basal mesoeucrocodylians is supported by the presence of hypapophyses up to the third or fourth dorsal vertebrae, anterolateral facing edge on postorbital, quadrate dorsal surface divided in two planes by a ridge; mandibular symphysis tapering anterirorly in ventral view, lateral surface of dentary convex anterior to mandibular fenestra, distal body of quadrate well developed, anteroposteriorly thin and lateromedially broad. The new specimen broadens the temporal and geographical distribution of Peirosauridae during the Cretaceous of Gondwana, representing the southern-most and the most ancient record of the group in Patagonia. The new material also provides insights on the postcranial anatomy of peirosaurids, a group that has been so far studied almost exclusively from cranial material.     

Forecasting Zonda Wind Occurrence with Vertical Sounding Data

Zonda wind is a typical downslope windstorm over the eastern slopes of the Central Andes in Argentina,which produces extremely warm and dry conditions and creates substantial socioeconomic impacts.The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of Zonda wind occurrence.The Principal Component Analysis(PCA)is applied to the vertical sounding data on both sides of the Andes.Through the use of a binary logistic regression,the PCA is applied to discriminate those soundings associated with Zonda wind events from those that are not,and a probabilistic forecasting tool for Zonda occurrence is obtained.This index is able to discriminate between Zonda and non-Zonda events with an effectiveness close to 91%.The best model consists of four variables from each side of the Andes.From an eventbased statistical perspective,the probability of detection of the mixed model is above 97%with a probability of false detection lower than 7%and a missing ratio below 1%.From an alarm-based perspective,models exhibit false alarm rate below 7%,a missing alarm ratio lower than 1.5%and higher than 93%for the correct alarm ratio.The zonal component of the wind on both sides of the Andes and the windward temperature are the key variables in class discrimination.The vertical structure of Zonda wind includes two wind maximums and an unstable lapse rate at midlevels on the lee side and a wind maximum at 700 h Pa accompanied by a relatively stable layer near the mountain top.     

Is proximity to land-based sources of coral stressors an appropriate measure of risk to coral reefs? An example from the Florida Reef Tract

Localized declines in coral condition are commonly linked to land-based sources of stressors that influence gradients of water quality, and the distance to sources of stressors is commonly used as a proxy for predicting the vulnerability and future status of reef resources. In this study, we evaluated explicitly whether proximity to shore and connections to coastal bays, two measures of potential land-based sources of disturbance, influence coral community and population structure, and the abundance, distribution, and condition of corals within patch reefs of the Florida Reef Tract. In the Florida Keys, long-term monitoring has documented significant differences in water quality along a cross-shelf gradient. Inshore habitats exhibit higher levels of nutrients (DIN and TP), TOC, turbidity, and light attenuation, and these levels decrease with increasing distance from shore and connections to tidal bays. In clear contrast to these patterns of water quality, corals on inshore patch reefs exhibited significantly higher coral cover, higher growth rates, and lower partial mortality rates than those documented in similar offshore habitats. Coral recruitment rates did not differ between inshore and offshore habitats. Corals on patch reefs closest to shore had well-spread population structures numerically dominated by intermediate to large colonies, while offshore populations showed narrower size-distributions that become increasingly positively skewed. Differences in size-structure of coral populations were attributed to faster growth and lower rates of partial mortality at inshore habitats. While the underlying causes for the favorable condition of inshore coral communities are not yet known, we hypothesize that the ability of corals to shift their trophic mode under adverse environmental conditions may be partly responsible for the observed patterns, as shown in other reef systems. This study, based on data collected from a uniform reef habitat type and coral species with diverse life-history and stress-response patterns from a heavily exploited reef system, showed that proximity to potential sources of stressors may not always prove an adequate proxy for assigning potential risks to reef health, and that hypothesized patterns of coral cover, population size-structure, growth, and mortality are not always directly related to water quality gradients.     

Determination of physical and radiant meteor properties using PFISR interferometry measurements of head echoes

Over the past decade, High Power and Large Aperture (HPLA) radars have been widely utilized for the study of sub-millimeter extraterrestrial particles via the detection of the meteor head-echo. These observations have been a successful tool in the study of the sporadic meteor background, however, they have been limited by the lack of precise knowledge of the particle's location within the radar beam and its absolute trajectory and velocity. This limitation prevents for example the accurate determination of the meteors radiant and orbit. Interferometry measurements of the head-echo has been proven to be a detection technique that satisfies this need. Unfortunately very few radars are capable of performing them. We have developed a methodology which takes advantage of the multi-receiving capabilities of the 450 MHz Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) enabling us to utilize the phased array of crossed-dipoles as an interferometer. This new PFISR capability allows us to determine the instantaneous position of meteors within the radar beam. This enables us to determine absolute velocities and ultimately meteor radiant and orbit around the Sun. In this work, we present initial results from 9 h of observations during which 142 particles were individually detected by the three different receiving channels simultaneously. For these meteors absolute velocities were obtained and meteor dynamical, physical and radiant properties were derived.     

The synrift phase of the early Domeyko Basin (Triassic,northern Chile): Sedimentary,volcanic, and tectonic interplay in the evolution of an ancient subduction‐related rift basin

The geodynamic setting along the SW Gondwana margin during its early breakup (Triassic) remains poorly understood. Recent models calling for an uninterrupted subduction since Late Palaeozoic only slightly consider the geotectonic significance of coeval basins. The Domeyko Basin initiated as a rift basin during the Triassic being filled by sedimentary and volcanic deposits. Stratigraphic, sedimentological, and geochronological analyses are presented in order to determine the tectonostratigraphic evolution of this basin and to propose a tectonic model suitable for other SW Gondwana‐margin rift basins. The Domeyko Basin recorded two synrift stages. The Synrift I (~240–225 Ma) initiated the Sierra Exploradora sub‐basin, whereas the Synrift II (~217–200 Ma) reactivated this sub‐basin and originated small depocentres grouped in the Sierra de Varas sub‐basin. During the rift evolution, the sedimentary systems developed were largely controlled by the interplay between tectonics and volcanism through the accommodation/sediment supply ratio (A/S). High‐volcaniclastic depocentres record a net dominance of the syn‐eruptive period lacking rift‐climax sequences, whereas low‐volcaniclastic depocentres of the Sierra de Varas sub‐basin developed a complete rift cycle during the Synrift II stage. The architecture of the Domeyko Basin suggests a transtensional kinematic where N‐S master faults interacted with ~NW‐SE basement structures producing highly asymmetric releasing bends. We suggest that the early Domeyko Basin was a continental subduction‐related rift basin likely developed under an oblique convergence in a back‐arc setting. Subduction would have acted as a primary driving mechanism for the extension along the Gondwanan margin, unlike inland rift basins. Slab‐induced dynamic can strongly influence the tectonostratigraphic evolution of subduction‐related rift basins through controls in the localization and style of magmatism and faulting, settling the interplay between tectonics, volcanism, and sedimentation during the rifting.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of the atmospheric and surface urban heat islands of the Metropolitan Area of Toluca,Mexico

The dynamic of consolidation of urban areas in Latin America has allowed that almost 80% of the population concentrates in cities; this has produced changes in land covers and modified regional climate, propitiating the appearance of urban heat islands. The Metropolitan Area of Toluca, State of Mexico, Mexico, holds the fifth national place in population size and experiences this process, because of this, the objective is to analyze and compare the spatiotemporal characteristics of the atmospheric urban heat island obtained from data gathered from 12 urban and rural weather stations with the surface urban heat island obtained from the digital processing of four Landsat 8 images. Results show the year-round presence of night-time atmospheric urban heat islands, which reach a peak in autumn (up to 6 °C). Daytime atmospheric urban heat islands occur in summer and autumn with a maximum intensity of 4 °C. For their part, surface urban heat islands occur in spring, summer and autumn and reach maximums of 19 °C in intensity. A strong correlation was found between wetness and surface temperature (coefficient of determination, 0.8) in spring and winter. Soil wetness directly impacts the formation of weak urban heat islands in dry season, and intense ones in wet season, while the green areas and the winds affect the spatial distribution of the same.     

Two-phase SPH modelling of a real debris avalanche and analysis of its impact on bottom drainage screens

Landslides - Rapid flow-like landslides, particularly debris flows and debris avalanches, cause significant economic damage and many victims worldwide every year. They are usually extremely fast...