Least-cost adaptation options for global climate change impacts on the Brazilian electric power system

Global climate change induced by the emission of greenhouse gases may pose challenges to energy security. The vulnerability of energy sources, in particular of renewable sources, to climate change raises the need to identify adaptation measures. This paper applies an integrated resource planning approach to calculate least-cost adaptation measures to a set of projected climate impacts on the Brazilian power sector. The methodology used has the advantage of finding optimal solutions that take into consideration the whole energy chain and the interactions between energy supply and demand. Results point in the direction of an increased installed capacity based, mostly, on natural gas, but also sugarcane bagasse, wind power and coal/nuclear plants, to compensate for a lower reliability of hydroelectric production, amongst other impacts. The indirect effect of these results is the displacement of natural gas from other consuming sectors, such as industry, in favor of its use for power generation. Results obtained are, however, based on the techno-economic premises used in the simulation, which may vary in the long term.     

Influence of damage on pore size distribution and permeability of rocks

The model proposed in this article relates permeability to porosity measurements that can easily be performed in the laboratory. The pore size distribution (PSD) curve is updated with strains and damage. The updated volumetric fractions of natural pores and cracks are introduced in the expression of permeability. Contrary to classical permeability models based on PSD integrations, the model proposed in this article accounts for possible changes in the porosity modes: one mode for undamaged samples and two modes for cracked samples. The proposed approach also accounts for varying states of damage, as opposed to classical fracture network models, in which the cracks pattern is fixed. The only material parameters that are required to describe the microstructure are the lower and upper bounds of the pores size for both natural pores and cracks. All the other PSD parameters involved in the model are related to macroscopic parameters that can easily be determined in the laboratory, such as the initial void ratio. The framework proposed in this article can be used in any damage constitutive model to determine the permeability of a brittle porous medium. Drained triaxial compression tests have been simulated. Before cracks initiation, permeability decreases while the larger natural pores are getting squeezed. After the occurrence of damage, permeability grows due to the increase of cracks density. The model performs well to represent the influence of the confining pressure on damage evolution and permeability variations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A dual-continuum model (TOUGH2) for characterizing flow and discharge in a mechanically disrupted sandstone overburden

Underground hard coal mining usually disrupts the mechanical equilibrium of rock sequences, creating fractures within minor permeable rocks. The present study employs a dual-continuum model to assess how both fractured and porous sandstone media influence the percolation process in postmining setups. To test the approach, the software TOUGH2 was employed to simulate laminar fluid flow in the unsaturated zone of the Ibbenbüren Westfield mining area. Compared to other coal mining districts in Germany, this area is delineated by the topography and local geology, leading to a well-defined hydrogeological framework. Results reveal good agreement between the calculated and measured mine water discharge for the years 2008 and 2017. The constructed model was capable of reproducing the bimodal flow behavior of the adit by coupling a permeable fractured continuum with a low-conductivity rock matrix. While flow from the fractured continuum results in intense discharge events during winter months, the rock matrix determines a smooth discharge limb in summer. The study also evaluates the influence of individual and combined model parameters affecting the simulated curve. A detailed sensitivity analysis displayed the absolute and relative permeability function parameters of both continua among the most susceptible variables. However, a strong a priori knowledge of the value ranges for the matrix continuum helps to reduce the model ambiguity. This allowed for calibration of some of the fractured medium parameters for which sparse or variable data were available. However, the inclusion of the transport component and acquisition of more site-specific data is recommended to reduce their uncertainty.

     

Suitability of GNSS for analysis of soil subsidence in Recife in a highly urbanized coastal area

Natural Hazards - Recife Metropolitan Region, in the northeast of Brazil, is formed by a coastal plain bounded by hills and by the Atlantic Ocean. Recife Metropolitan Region has about 4 million...     

Seasonal fluctuations of tissue mercury contents in the European shore crab Carcinus maenas from low and high contamination areas (Ria de Aveiro, Portugal)

The main objective was to study the seasonal variation of mercury concentrations in different tissues (muscle, hepatopancreas and gills) of Carcinus maenas from low and high Hg contaminated areas, a valuable resource in temperate estuaries and a possible pathway for human uptake. Individuals of two size classes (around 35 and 55 mm cephalothorax wide) were captured monthly between March 1999 and May 2000 in two areas of Ria de Aveiro: in the main navigation channel that connects the lagoon to the sea, and in the inner lagoon area heavily contaminated by mercury (maximum Hg in sediments of 5.4 microg g(-1)). Pronounced decreases in salinity and temperature and reduced food availability in winter seemed to be the responsible for the decline of the crab condition index (0.75-0.45) in larger individuals. Muscle and hepatopancreas exhibited higher mercury concentrations than gills, with concentrations in the contaminated site ranging from 0.03 to 0.63 microg g(-1) and 0.02 to 0.34 microg g(-1), respectively. Linear regressions between muscle and hepatopancreas (r=0.94, p<0.001) and muscle and gills (r=0.97, p<0.001) suggested a rapid redistribution of mercury inside the organism. During winter, a rapid elimination of mercury was found in the three analysed tissues followed by uptake. Larger crabs presented elimination rates from 18 to 34 ng g(-1) per week, while the smaller crabs showed lower elimination rates (10-24 ng g(-1) per week). The uptake was similar in both size classes (11-15 ng g(-1) and 8.1-15 ng g(-1) per week, respectively for large and small crabs). Our results suggest that C. maenas harvested in the contaminated areas must be considered with caution, since Hg concentrations were found to exceed the threshold concentration allowed for human consumption (0.5 microg g(-1)).     

陕西紫阳富硒地层硒赋存形式及地球化学意义研究

硒是与生物密不可分的微量元素,其含量和赋存形态对人们的生产生活至关重要,本文选择典型富硒地区陕西紫阳,测定该地区地层中29个不同岩性岩石样品的Se含量,探明了该区岩石组合主要以富硒的碳质板岩、硅质岩、黑色页岩和含黄铁矿煤样为主,而在灰岩中硒的富集程度不强。选取14个典型富硒岩石和煤样品,通过四步五态顺序提取法,阐明了硒的五种赋存形态特征及其环境地球化学意义:陕西紫阳地区岩石硒形态以硫/硒化物结合状态为主,残渣态、有机结合状态硒次之,紫阳地区沉积环境偏还原性。本文为深入认识陕西紫阳地区富硒岩石硒含量和硒迁移转化行为及富硒矿产资源综合开发利用提供了数据基础和理论指导。     

Influence of traffic emissions on the composition of atmospheric particles of different sizes—Part 2: SEM–EDS characterization

In urban areas traffic is the major contributor to atmospheric particulate matter and exposure to these particles currently represents a serious risk to human health. The attention has been recently focused more on the particles of smaller sizes (PM_2.5) which penetrate deeper in respiratory system causing severe health effects. Therefore, more information on PM_2.5 should be provided, namely concerning morphological and chemical characterization. Aiming further evaluation of the impact of traffic emissions on public health, this work evaluated the influence of traffic on the chemical and morphological characteristics of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5, collected at one site influenced by traffic emissions and at one reference site. Chemical and morphological characteristics of 1,000 individual particles were determined by scanning electron microscopy combined with energy dispersive spectrometer (SEM–EDS). Cluster analysis (CA) was used to identify different types of particles that occurred in PM, aiming the identification of the respective emission sources. Traffic PM_2.5 were dominated by particles composed of Fe oxides and alloys (67%) which were related to traffic emissions (this percentage was 3.7 times higher than at the background site); in PM_2.5–10 the abundance of Fe oxides and alloys were 20% and 0% for the traffic and background sites, respectively. Background PM_2.5 were mainly constituted by aluminum silicates (63%) related to natural sources (this percentage was 2.5 times higher than at the traffic site); the abundances of aluminum silicates in PM_2.5–10 were 74% and 73% for traffic and background sites, respectively. It was concluded that traffic emissions were mainly present in PM_2.5 (the percentage of particles associated to these emissions was 3.4 times higher than in PM_2.5–10), while coarse particles were dominated by material of natural origin (the percentage of particles associated was 1.2 and 3.0 times higher than in PM_2.5 for traffic and background sites, respectively). Previous results obtained by proton induced X-ray emission (PIXE) were consistent with SEM–EDS analysis that showed to be very useful to complement elemental analysis of different PM_2.5 and PM_2.5–10.