Status of NCEP CFS vis-a-vis IPCC AR4 models for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System (CFS) is selected to play a lead role for monsoon research (seasonal prediction, extended range prediction, climate prediction, etc.) in the ambitious Monsoon Mission project of Government of India. Thus, as a prerequisite, a detail analysis for the performance of NCEP CFS vis-a-vis IPCC AR4 models for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is attempted. It is found that the mean monsoon simulations by CFS in its long run are at par with the IPCC models. The spatial distribution of rainfall in the realm of Indian subcontinent augurs the better results for CFS as compared with the IPCC models. The major drawback of CFS is the bifurcation of rain types; it shows almost 80–90 % rain as convective, contrary to the observation where it is only 50–65 %; however, the same lacuna creeps in other models of IPCC as well. The only respite is that it realistically simulates the proper ratio of convective and stratiform rain over central and southern part of India. In case of local air–sea interaction, it outperforms other models. However, for monsoon teleconnections, it competes with the better models of the IPCC. This study gives us the confidence that CFS can be very well utilized for monsoon studies and can be safely used for the future development for reliable prediction system of ISM.     

Evolutionary Features of Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) over the Arabian Sea and the Onset of Monsoon over Kerala during ARMEX-2003

In this study an attempt has been made to examine the evolutionary features of the dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of the marine atmosphere over the South-East Arabian Sea near 9.22°N, 74.51°E just two to three days prior to the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala during 2003 and seek the linkages with the large-scale flow in the lower and middle troposphere at that time over the region. The marine meteorological data collected onboard ORV Sagarkanya as part of the experiment ARMEX-2003 for 4–8 June, 2003 are used. The monsoon onset over Kerala occurred on 8 June, 2003. The observed changes in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) characteristics just two days prior to the onset are discussed. It is observed that the MABL increased in height up to 4 km on 6 June from an initial height 2.8 km on 5 June. The top of the MABL dried up (Relative Humidity RH ~ 30–40%) with weak and variable winds throughout the day on 6 June while the air at 850 hPa is relatively humid (RH ~ 50–80%) but not saturated. A sequential increase in RH is associated with a change in the winds from southwesterly to westerly from 6 June onwards until the onset date. The changes in the lower and middle troposphere flow patterns over the Arabian Sea and Indian region are highlighted.     

Application of conductance phenomenon in groundwater studies

In this article, we present an interesting behaviour of conductance in a basaltic terrain. We use vertical electrical sounding data carried out in Wenner configuration at dug well sites for data analysis. Geophysical phenomena observed in the sharply rising trends followed by negligibly rising trends of the conductance curves are discussed. The unique behaviour of conductance curve is used to estimate depth to the static water level in dug wells. The geophysically estimated depths to the static water levels are compared with the observed static water levels in the existing dug wells located at all sites of investigation. Water-level fluctuations observed in dug wells between two different periods coinciding with pre- and post-monsoon regimes are geophysically estimated by using the trends on the conductance curves. Depth to the static water levels is geophysically estimated at seven experimental sites located adjacent to dug wells and four virgin sites where there are no dug wells. Validation of the geophysically estimated static water levels and static water-level fluctuations shows encouraging results.     

Correlation of vertical electrical sounding and electrical borehole log data for groundwater exploration

We have correlated the longitudinal unit conductance CL obtained from interpreted vertical electrical sounding data with the formation resistivity R_t and the formation resistivity factor F, obtained by carrying out electrical borehole logging. Interpreted geophysical data of eleven soundings and two electrical borehole log records are used for the analysis. The geophysical data used were acquired in a sedimentary basin. The study area is called Lower Maner Basin located in the province of Andhra Pradesh, India. Vertical electrical soundings were carried out using a Schlumberger configuration with half current electrode separation varying from 600–1000 m. For logging the two boreholes, a Widco logger‐model 3200 PLS was used. True formation resistivity R_t was calculated from a resistivity log. Formation resistivity factor F was also calculated at various depths using R_t values. An appreciable inverse relation exists between the correlated parameters. The borehole resistivity R_t and the formation resistivity factor F decrease with the increase in the longitudinal unit conductance CL. We have shown the use of such a relation in computing borehole resistivity R_t and formation resistivity factor F at sites that posses only vertical electrical sounding data, with a fair degree of accuracy. Validation of the correlation is satisfactory. Scope for updating the correlation is discussed. Significance and applications of the relation for exploration of groundwater, namely to update the vertical electrical sounding data interpretation by translating the vertical electrical sounding data into electrical borehole log parameters, to facilitate correlations studies and to estimate the porosity (φ), permeability (K) and water saturation S_w of water bearing zones are discussed.     

Why is Indian Ocean warming consistently?

Observations have shown that the Indian Ocean is consistently warming and its warm pool is expanding, particularly in the recent decades. This paper attempts to investigate the reason behind these observations. Under global warming scenario, it is expected that the greenhouse gas induced changes in air–sea fluxes will enhance the warming. Surprisingly, it is found that the net surface heat fluxes over Indian Ocean warm pool (IOWP) region alone cannot explain the consistent warming. The warm pool area anomaly of IOWP is strongly correlated with the sea surface height anomaly, suggesting an important role played by the ocean advection processes in warming and expansion of IOWP. The structure of lead/lag correlations further suggests that Oceanic Rossby waves might be involved in the warming. Using heat budget analysis of several Ocean data assimilation products, it is shown that the net surface heat flux (advection) alone tends to cool (warm) the Ocean. Based on above observations, we propose an ocean-atmosphere coupled positive feedback mechanism for explaining the consistent warming and expansion of IOWP. Warming over IOWP induces an enhancement of convection in central equatorial Indian ocean, which causes anomalous easterlies along the equator. Anomalous easterlies in turn excite frequent Indian ocean Dipole events and cause anti-cyclonic wind stress curl in south-east and north-east equatorial Indian ocean. The anomalous wind stress curl triggers anomalous downwelling oceanic Rossby waves, thereby deepening the thermocline and resulting in advection of warm waters towards western Indian ocean. This acts as a positive feedback and results in more warming and westward expansion of IOWP.