Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Diel-Cycling Hypoxia in Estuarine Tributaries

The distribution and intensity of hypoxia (low dissolved oxygen) in estuaries is increasing worldwide due to cultural eutrophication. This study quantifies the strength of associations between the duration of diel-cycling severe hypoxia (≤2 mg O₂ l⁻¹) in bottom water (∼15 cm above bottom) of a shallow (<2 m) coastal lagoon estuary (Delaware, USA) and abiotic environmental variables (water temperature, insolation, tide, streamflow, and wind) and predicts the duration of severe hypoxia given different combinations of these variables. The intensity and spatial extent and dynamics of diel-cycling severe hypoxia events were defined. Vertical variability in dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration during the daytime was also determined. During the summers of 2001–2005, bottom DO data were collected for periods of weeks to months at multiple sites using automated sondes. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and regression tree analysis (RTA) were used to determine the relative importance of the environmental variables in predicting the number of hours of severe hypoxia per day. Key findings of the study were that severe hypoxia events of minutes to hours in duration occurred frequently in all four tributaries sampled, primarily between 0200 and 1000 hours. Severe hypoxia duration and diel-cycling amplitudes of DO concentration increased in the up-tributary direction. Hierarchically, the duration of severe hypoxia was influenced mostly by the mean daily water temperature, then by preceding days’ total insolation, percentage of morning hours (02:00 to 10:00 a.m.) ebb tide, and daily streamflow. Collectively, the variables examined by the MLR and the RTA approaches accounted for 62% and 65% of the variability in the duration of severe hypoxia, respectively. RTA demonstrated that daily mean water temperature above 26.3°C and previous day’s total insolation below 13.6 kW m⁻² were associated with the longest lasting severe hypoxic events (9.56 h). The environmental variables and combinations of conditions that modulate or augment diel-cycling hypoxia presented in this paper enhance understanding of this widespread and growing phenomenon and provide additional insight regarding the extent to which it can impact food webs in very shallow estuarine waters that often serve as nursery habitat.     

Relation between temperature changes of the mid-upper troposphere over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance in the twentieth century

The δ¹⁸O data obtained from an 18.7 m ice core drilled in Chongce Ice Cap at an elevation of 6,530 m a.s.l. in the West Kunlun Mountains on the northern Tibetan Plateau show a strong correlation with the summer temperature of the middle to upper troposphere over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. Based on this, the δ¹⁸O record can be used as a proxy of the June–September mean temperature of the mid-upper troposphere (MUT) from 1903 to 1992. The time span of the ice core record is much longer than the meteorological data available only after 1948. Using the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD), the δ¹⁸O record is decomposed into various frequency components and compared with the solar irradiance variations of the same period. The results show that (1) The June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes is completely decomposed into four IMF (intrinsic mode function) components and an increasing trend. (2) Solar irradiance is decomposed into the Schwabe cycle, the Hale cycle, the Gleissberg cycle, and an increasing trend. (3) The correlation coefficients between the June and September mean temperatures of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance on the longer timescales (at least more than 11-year) show the significant correlations; their phase changes are basically identical in general, and (4) the 11-year Schwabe cycle exists in the June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes during most of the time from 1903 to 1992, and only in the two high-temperature phases (1929–1944 and from 1975 to the present) may global warming disturb this relation. A full understanding of this phenomenon would shed insight into the potential consequence of global warming on the MUT.     

PLL Tracking Performance in the Presence of Oscillator Phase Noise

The tracking performance of a Phase Lock Loop (PLL) is affected by the influence of several error sources. In addition to thermal noise and dynamic stress error, oscillator phase noise can cause significant phase jitter which degrades the tracking performance. Oscillator phase noise is usually caused by two different effects: Allan deviation phase noise is caused by frequency instabilities of the receiver's reference oscillator and the satellite's frequency standard. It can be termed as system-inherent phase noise and is relevant for both static and dynamic applications. “External” phase noise, however, is caused by vibration and is a major problem for dynamic applications. In the context of this paper, both types of phase noise will be modeled and the resulting integrals will be evaluated for PLLs up to the third order. Besides, phase jitter induced by thermal noise and signal dynamics will also be discussed, thus providing all necessary formulas for analyzing the performance of a phase lock loop in case of different forms of stress. Since the main focus is centered on the effects of oscillator phase noise, the overall PLL performance is graphically illustrated with and without consideration of oscillator phase noise. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

关于固结度计算的一点看法

通过探寻渗透系数、压缩系数(或体积压缩系数)与孔隙比在固结过程中的变化规律来确定固结系数与固结时间的关系并将其用于固结度计算是无益的,原因在于固结度计算公式只在固结系数为常数时才成立。     

Evaluation of the effect of river style framework on water quality: application of geomorphological factors

The Tarwal River basin with an area of 6560.20 km² is located in the eastern part of Iranian Kurdistan Province. This river crosses the Qorveh and Dehgolan plains and joins the Ghezel Ozan River in Zanjan Province. The importance of this river as a source for drinking water and agricultural and industrial uses in the region necessitates the need for research in this field. The main purpose of this study is to identify the natural features of the riverbed from the perspective of river geomorphology and to investigate their impact on water quality and river self-purification capacity. To achieve this, the river style framework was employed. To investigate the effects of each style framework on the river, a total of 20 samples from the entrance and outlet of styles were obtained using Impact Assessment method and sampling standards which were later analyzed for their quality parameters including T, pH, EC, TDS, TSS, Na, Ca, Mg, K, Cl, F, NO₂, NO₃, SO₄, PO₄, DO, COD and BOD. The results indicated that the changes in the styles lead to changes in water quality and the impact of each style is greater on the physical parameters than the chemical parameters. The river self-purification capacity varied depending on the style. The maximum and the minimum self-purifications occurred in fine-grained Anabranching and low-sinuosity fine-grained styles, respectively.     

Output-only identification of the modal and physical properties of structures using free vibration response

The viability of a complete structural characterization of civil structures is explored and discussed. In particular, the identification of modal (i.e. natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal shapes) and physical properties (i.e. mass and stiffness) using only the structure’s free decay response is studied. To accomplish this, modal analysis from free vibration response only (MAFVRO) and mass modification (MM) methodologies are engaged along with Wavelet based techniques for optimal signal processing and modal reconstruction. The methodologies are evaluated using simulated and experimental data. The simulated data are extracted from a simple elastic model of a 5 story shear building and from a more realistic nonlinear model of a RC frame structure. The experimental data are gathered from shake table test of a 2-story scaled shear building. Guidelines for the reconstruction procedure from the data are proposed as the quality of the identified properties is shown to be governed by adequate selection of the frequency bands and optimal modal shape reconstruction. Moreover, in cases where the structure has undergone damage, the proposed identification scheme can also be applied for preliminary assessment of structural health.     

Simplification and Validation of a Spectral-Tensor Model for Turbulence Including Atmospheric Stability

A spectral-tensor model of non-neutral, atmospheric-boundary-layer turbulence is evaluated using Eulerian statistics from single-point measurements of the wind speed and temperature at heights up to 100 m, assuming constant vertical gradients of mean wind speed and temperature. The model has been previously described in terms of the dissipation rate \(\epsilon \), the length scale of energy-containing eddies \(\mathcal {L}\), a turbulence anisotropy parameter \(\varGamma \), the Richardson number Ri, and the normalized rate of destruction of temperature variance \(\eta _\theta \equiv \epsilon _\theta /\epsilon \). Here, the latter two parameters are collapsed into a single atmospheric stability parameter z / L using Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, where z is the height above the Earth’s surface, and L is the Obukhov length corresponding to \(\{Ri,\eta _\theta \}\). Model outputs of the one-dimensional velocity spectra, as well as cospectra of the streamwise and/or vertical velocity components, and/or temperature, and cross-spectra for the spatial separation of all three velocity components and temperature, are compared with measurements. As a function of the four model parameters, spectra and cospectra are reproduced quite well, but horizontal temperature fluxes are slightly underestimated in stable conditions. In moderately unstable stratification, our model reproduces spectra only up to a scale \(\sim \) 1 km. The model also overestimates coherences for vertical separations, but is less severe in unstable than in stable cases.     

辽西新台门白垩纪火山岩~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar定年及其对蝾螈化石层时代的约束

富含热河生物群鸟类和恐龙化石的辽西白垩纪地层属于中生代陆相火山沉积,其不同区域之间的地层对比和时代归属一直存有较大争议。本文采用激光40Ar/39Ar年代学方法,对葫芦岛新台门地区一个实测剖面中蝾螈化石点下伏的两层火山岩夹层进行了年代学研究。通过地层中火山岩夹层及火山岩颈的年代学测定,获得6组激光40Ar/39Ar年代结果。其中,下部层位中的流纹岩和安山质玄武岩样品XTM-3、XTM-5年龄结果分别为94.2±1.3Ma、93.7±1.3Ma;作为这一期喷发晚期就位的火山岩颈样品XTM-7的年龄结果为92.8±0.4Ma;而上部层位的安山岩和安山玄武岩火山岩夹层样品XTM-6、XTM-8、XTM-9年龄分别为110.1±1.0Ma、110.9±0.5Ma、93.7±1.2Ma。随后我们又从XTM-9位置的化石点下部采集样品XTM-9-2,进行实验验证。得到的结果表明,新台门地区早白垩世地层记录了至少两期火山喷发事件,喷发时间分别为110Ma和93Ma。根据测年结果,新台门白垩系的蝾螈化石层应代表中国北方中生代地层中迄今所发现的有尾两栖类化石纪录的最高层位,可能与辽西地区的九佛堂组或甚至与阜新组相当。