The distribution and characteristics of the igneous complexes in the northern East China Sea Shelf Basin and their implications for hydrocarbon potential

This paper presents results of two-dimensional seismic mapping of the northern East China Sea Shelf Basin. Various igneous features such as sills, volcanic edifices and stocks were identified by the geophysical exploration. The sills are most common, and are observed at more than 90 locations. Most mapped sills in the study area are characterized by high-amplitude continuous reflections with distinct terminations. Saucer- and cup-shaped sills are observed locally. The stocks are discordant (nearly vertical) igneous bodies and they are characterized by seismic transparency, with upturned host rocks and uplifted overburden. The volcanic edifices and/or necks consist of irregular mounds and peaks and are characterized by strong positive top reflections with chaotic internal facies. The oldest igneous activity in the northern East China Sea Shelf Basin is Early Cretaceous (123.3 ± 3.7). This igneous activity coincides with those observed in eastern China which has been related mainly to the subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath Eurasia Plate. The Miocene igneous activity is well constrained based on seismic stratigraphic relationships within the folded stratigraphy, age dating, and the occurrence of igneous sills. The timing of this intrusion is coincident with the intensive igneous activity as previously suggested for the eastern China. Igneous rocks can produce hydrocarbon traps, reservoirs and they can act as a seal, and therefore are of great importance in petroleum study.     

Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: contrasting global and regional climate model simulations

This study presents near future (2020–2044) temperature and precipitation changes over the Antarctic Peninsula under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We make use of historical and projected simulations from 19 global climate models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We compare and contrast GCMs projections with two groups of regional climate model simulations (RCMs): (1) high resolution (15-km) simulations performed with Polar-WRF model forced with bias-corrected NCAR-CESM1 (NC-CORR) over the Antarctic Peninsula, (2) medium resolution (50-km) simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P forced with EC-EARTH (EC) obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica. A further comparison of historical simulations (1981–2005) with respect to ERA5 reanalysis is also included for circulation patterns and near-surface temperature climatology. In general, both RCM boundary conditions represent well the main circulation patterns of the historical period. Nonetheless, there are important differences in projections such as a notable deepening and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low in EC and NC-CORR, respectively. Mean annual near-surface temperatures are projected to increase by about 0.5–1.5 \(^{\circ }\)C across the entire peninsula. Temperature increase is more substantial in autumn and winter (\(\sim \) 2 \(^{\circ }\)C). Following opposite circulation pattern changes, both EC and NC-CORR exhibit different warming rates, indicating a possible continuation of natural decadal variability. Although generally showing similar temperature changes, RCM projections show less warming and a smaller increase in melt days in the Larsen Ice Shelf compared to their respective driving fields. Regarding precipitation, there is a broad agreement among the simulations, indicating an increase in mean annual precipitation (\(\sim \) 5 to 10%). However, RCMs show some notable differences over the Larsen Ice Shelf where total precipitation decreases (for RACMO) and shows a small increase in rain frequency. We conclude that it seems still difficult to get consistent projections from GCMs for the Antarctic Peninsula as depicted in both RCM boundary conditions. In addition, dominant and common changes from the boundary conditions are largely evident in the RCM simulations. We argue that added value of RCM projections is driven by processes shaped by finer local details and different physics schemes that are introduced by RCMs, particularly over the Larsen Ice Shelf.

     

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Izmir, Turkey

Izmir, the third largest city and one of the major economic centers in Turkey, has more than three million residents and one-half million buildings. The city, located in a seismically active region in western Anatolia, was a subject of the 1997 RADIUS (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disaster) project. In this paper, the seismic hazard of Izmir is investigated through probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. First, the seismic setting of Izmir is presented. Considering the statistics of earthquakes that took place in the region during the period 1900–2005, a simple seismic hazard model is used to facilitate the assessment. To account for modeling uncertainties associated with the values of seismicity parameters, a logic tree procedure is employed in carrying out the seismic hazard computations. The resulting weighted average seismic hazard, presented in terms of peak ground acceleration and associated probability of exceedence, could be considered the “best estimate” of seismic hazard for Izmir. Accordingly, for a return period of 475 years, for rock sites, a PGA value of 0.34 g is calculated. This PGA hazard estimate is close to the current code-recommended design acceleration level for Izmir.     

Prediction of earthquake-induced permanent deformations for concrete-faced rockfill dams

Natural Hazards - Prior studies highlight the importance of earthquake-induced permanent displacement for the safety assessment of the embankment dams. Concrete-faced rockfill dams (CFRDs) have...     

The Santa Filomena meteorite shower: Trajectory,classification, and opaque phases as indicators of metamorphic conditions

On August 19, 2020, at 13:18—UTC, a meteor event ended as a meteorite shower in Santa Filomena, a city in the Pernambuco State, northeast Brazil. The heliocentric orbital parameters resulting from images by cameras of the weather broadcasting system were semimajor axis a = 2.1 ± 0.1 au, eccentricity e = 0.55 ± 0.03, and inclination i = 0.15^o ± 0.05. The data identified the body as an Apollo object, an Earth-crossing object with a pericenter interior to the Earth's orbit. The chemical, mineralogical, and petrological evaluations, as well as the physical analysis, followed several traditional techniques. The meteorite was identified as a H5-6 S4 W0 ordinary chondrite genomict breccia. The large amount of metal in the meteorite made a metallographic evaluation based on the opaque phases possible. The monocrystalline kamacite crystals suggest a higher petrological type and the distorted Neumann lines imply at least two different shock events. The absence of the plessite phase shows that the meteorite did not reach the highest shock levels S5 and S6. The well-defined polycrystalline taenite is indicative of petrologic types 4 and 5 due to the conserved internal tetrataenite rim at the boundaries. The presence of polycrystalline taenites and the characteristics of the Agrell Effect suggest that the Santa Filomena meteorite did not reheat above 700°C. The absence of martensite confirms reheating temperatures <800°C and a slow cooling rate. The Ni contents and sizes of the zoned taenite particles indicate a slow cooling rate ranging from 1 to 10 K Myr⁻¹.     

Water level changes in Lake Van,Turkey, during the past ca. 600 ka: climatic,volcanic and tectonic controls

Sediments of Lake Van, Turkey, preserve one of the most complete records of continental climate change in the Near East since the Middle Pleistocene. We used seismic reflection profiles to infer past changes in lake level and discuss potential causes related to changes in climate, volcanism, and regional tectonics since the formation of the lake ca. 600 ka ago. Lake Van’s water level ranged by as much as 600 m during the past ~600 ka. Five major lowstands occurred, at ~600, ~365–340, ~290–230, ~150–130 and ~30–14 ka. During Stage A, between about 600 and 230 ka, lake level changed dramatically, by hundreds of meters, but phases of low and high stands were separated by long time intervals. Changes in the lake level were more frequent during the past ~230 ka, but less dramatic, on the order of a few tens of meters. We identified period B1 as a time of stepwise transgressions between ~230 and 150 ka, followed by a short regression between ca. 150 and 130 ka. Lake level rose stepwise during period B2, until ~30 ka. During the past ~30 ka, a regression and a final transgression occurred, each lasting about 15 ka. The major lowstand periods in Lake Van occurred during glacial periods, suggesting climatic control on water level changes (i.e. greatly reduced precipitation led to lower lake levels). Although climate forcing was the dominant cause for dramatic water level changes in Lake Van, volcanic and tectonic forcing factors may have contributed as well. For instance, the number of distinct tephra layers, some several meters thick, increases dramatically in the uppermost ~100 m of the sediment record (i.e. the past ~230 ka), an interval that coincides largely with low-magnitude lake level fluctuations. Tectonic activity, highlighted by extensional and/or compressional faults across the basin margins, probably also affected the lake level of Lake Van in the past.     

Evaluation of the twenty-first century RCM simulations driven by multiple GCMs over the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea region

In this study, human-induced climate change over the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea region has been analyzed for the twenty-first century by performing regional climate model simulations forced with large-scale fields from three different global circulation models (GCMs). Climate projections have been produced with Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2, A1FI and B1 scenarios, which provide greater diversity in climate information for future period. The gradual increases for temperature are widely apparent during the twenty-first century for each scenario simulation, but ECHAM5-driven simulation generally has a weaker signal for all seasons compared to CCSM3 simulations except for the Fertile Crescent. The contrast in future temperature change between the winter and summer seasons is very strong for CCSM3-A2-driven and HadCM3-A2-driven simulations over Carpathians and Balkans, 4–5 °C. In addition, winter runoff over mountainous region of Turkey, which feeds many river systems including the Euphrates and Tigris, increases in second half of the century since the snowmelt process accelerates where the elevation is higher than 1,500 m. Moreover, analysis of daily temperature outputs reveals that the gradual decrease in daily minimum temperature variability for January during the twenty-first century is apparent over Carpathians and Balkans. Analysis of daily precipitation extremes shows that positive trend is clear during the last two decades of the twenty-first century over Carpathians for both CCSM3-driven and ECHAM5-driven simulations. Multiple-GCM driven regional climate simulations contribute to the quantification of the range of climate change over a region by performing detailed comparisons between the simulations.     

Kinematics of landslide estimated by repeated GPS measurements in the Avcilar region of Istanbul, Turkey

The aim of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal behavior of the landslide located in Avcilar region which is situated between Kucukcekmece and Buyukcekmece Lakes in the north-west of Marmara region, Turkey. A network consisting of 10 sites has been surveyed four times from November 2007 to May 2009 using Global Positioning System (GPS). The deformation analysis has been applied to determine the landslide movement parameters of the sites using GPS measurements of the four epochs. The reliable and high precision deformation rates are presented in terms of displacement vectors, velocity vectors and changes of accumulated strain. Landslides of the region are characterized from a regional GPS network. Each site has statistically different temporal behavior and significant relative motions and the region has irregular landslide movements.