Data-Assimilative Hindcast and Climate Forecast of Storm Surges with an ASGF Regression Model

ABSTRACT

This study demonstrates that long-term climate model solutions can be efficiently converted to storm surge time series at points of interest (POIs) for the future. The all-source Green's function (ASGF) regression model is used for this conversion. In addition to being data assimilative, the ASGF regression model can also simulate storm surges at a POI faster than the traditional modelling approach by orders of magnitude. This is demonstrated using the tidal gauge at Sept-Îles (Quebec, Canada) in the Gulf of St. Lawrence as the POI. First the ASGF regression model is used to assimilate 32 years of tidal gauge data, producing a continuous hindcast of storm surges and a set of best-estimate regression parameters. Second, the ASGF regression model with the best-estimate parameters is used to convert a Canadian Regional Climate Model solution (CRCM/AHJ) to an hourly time series of storm surges from 1961 to 2100. Gumbel's extreme value analysis (EVA) is then applied to the time series as a whole and also to tri-decadal segments. The tri-decadal approach is used to investigate whether there is any progressive shortening or lengthening of storm surge return periods as a result of future climate change. A method for correcting for bias due to the forcing field at the EVA level is also demonstrated.     

Rare earth element mobility in the Roffna Gneiss,Switzerland

The Roffna Gneiss, a deformed Hercynian granite porphyry within the Penninic nappes of eastern Switzerland, underwent extreme cataclasis with the progressive development of phengite towards the margins of the nappe under conditions of the glaucophane schist to greenschist facies. This resulted in the selective mobilization of major and trace elements over distances of 10's to 100's of meters and the resetting of the Rb — Sr whole rock isotopic systems some 100 my ago. The component ratios and compositionvolume relationships of progressively deformed gneiss samples studied here suggest that this process was essentially isovolumetric. The mineralogy of the deformation sequence appears to have been controlled by a reaction involving the breakdown of microcline, albite and biotite and the formation of phengite and quartz. The fluids introduced Mg and H₂O, promoting the development of phengite, and removed the Na being released by the breakdown of albite. The fluids were most probably derived from the surrounding Triassic carbonates and quartzites. These relatively high fO₂ and carbonate rich fluids also introduced rare earth elements (REE) into the gneiss. The gneiss was progressively enriched in Eu up to 60%, Y up to 40%, and Yb up to 100%. These enrichments are associated with the development of epitaxial xenotime around zircon in the most phengite-rich sample. While the REE were mobile, uranium and thorium were essentially immobile. The formation of xenotime was suggested to explain the observed heavy REE enrichment when large differences in the REE contents were found for replicate analyses using HF and then lithium metaborate for dissolution. These differences arose because xenotime, like monazite, can be difficult (if not impossible) to dissolve in hydrofluoric acid. Due to the possibility of incomplete sample dissolution, we now recommend fusion with lithium metaborate for all REE, Lu — Hf or Sm — Nd studies.     

Origin of Ross Island basanitoids and limitations upon the heterogeneity of mantle sources for alkali basalts and nephelinites

Primary basanitoids from Ross Island, Antarctica have REE patterns and Pb isotope ratios similar to those for primary alkali basalts and nephelinites on ocean islands. The lead data from all volcanics on Ross Island have a spread of 4% in the 206/204 ratio and give a two-stage model lead age of 1500 m.y. The age is interpreted to be the time since the development of the chemical heterogeneity of the mantle source, presumably during an earlier melting process. Comparison of REE, K, Rb, Sr, Ba and P₂O₅ concentrations for alkali basalts and nephelinites shows that the chondrite normalized mantle source is enriched in light REE with average La/Sm=3.4, Ce/Sm=2.6, Nd/Sm=1.6. Assuming a mantle source with heavy REE abundances of three times chondrites, nephelinites require 3 to 7% partial melting of the mantle source and alkali basalts require 7 to 15% partial melting. The patterns of K, Cu, V and Ti abundances suggest that phlogopite is a residual mineral for most nephelinite, but not alkali basalt mantle sources, and that a sulfide phase and a titanium-rich mineral are in the residual mantle source for both alkali basalts and nephelinites. Small positive Eu anomalies (2–5%) in near primary alkali basalts and nephelinites suggest that the xxx of the mantle sources is 10^?6 to 10^?9 atm. The progressive enrichment of light REE and incompatible elements in the mantle sources for nephelinites and alkali basalts is proposed to result by intrusion of veins of basaltic melt due to very low percentages of melting 1 000 to 3 000 m.y. ago when this part of the deeper mantle was previously involved in convection and partial melting.     

Length of the day and evolution of the Earth's core in the geological past

In this paper, we study quantitatively the effect of the Earth's core formation on the secular rate of change of the length of day (LOD). We find that for the present epoch, a growth rate of the core comprised between 1 and 10 mm/cy seems to be a plausible guess, leading to a relative de crease of LOD comprised roughly between 10 and 100 μs/cy. Such values do not affect significantly the observed secular in crease of LOD caused by tidal braking, which amounts to about 1.79 ms/cy. However, in the remote geological past, before the Phanerozoic, the effects of core growth may have been much more important, because the total change of LOD associated with core formation has been estimated by Birch in 1965 to be 2.4 hours for an initially undifferentiated cold Earth, and 3.1 hours for an initially undifferentiated hot Earth. We consider a number of scenarios, some of them corresponding to very early and/or very fast core formation, others corresponding to slow and/or late core formation. We show that palaeo‐LOD measurements seem to favour slow core formation during the Proterozoic, contrarily to the now largely prevailing hypothesis based on geochemical arguments that the iron core formed very early in the Earth's history and during a geologically short time interval (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Trace-element heterogeneity in rutile linked to dislocation structures: Implications for Zr-in-rutile geothermometry

The trace-element composition of rutile is commonly used to constrain P–T–t conditions for a wide range of metamorphic systems. However, recent studies have demonstrated the redistribution of trace elements in rutile via high-diffusivity pathways and dislocation-impurity associations related to the formation and evolution of microstructures. Here, we investigate trace-element migration in low-angle boundaries formed by dislocation creep in rutile within an omphacite vein of the Lago di Cignana unit (Western Alps, Italy). Zr-in-rutile thermometry and inclusions of quartz in rutile and of coesite in omphacite constrain the conditions of rutile deformation to around the prograde boundary from high pressure to ultra-high pressure (~2.7 GPa) at temperatures of 500–565°C. Crystal-plastic deformation of a large rutile grain results in low-angle boundaries that generate a total misorientation of ~25°. Dislocations constituting one of these low-angle boundaries are enriched in common and uncommon trace elements, including Fe and Ca, providing evidence for the diffusion and trapping of trace elements along the dislocation cores. The role of dislocation microstructures as fast-diffusion pathways must be evaluated when applying high-resolution analytical procedures as compositional disturbances might lead to erroneous interpretations for Ca and Fe. In contrast, our results indicate a trapping mechanism for Zr.