Geochronological arguments for a close relationship between surficial formation profiles and environmental crisis (c. 3000–2000 BP) in Gabon (Central Africa)

We present new ¹⁴C data on charcoal fragments recovered from the lower (coarse-grained Stone Line) and upper (fine-grained Cover Horizon) portions of surficial formation profiles in Gabon. These data and others compiled from the literature enable a reconstruction of the Upper Holocene geological regional history of Gabon. The connection between the geological events recorded in the surficial formations and the Upper Holocene environmental crisis is discussed and a scenario connecting geological events with climatic and environmental changes is proposed. Such a scenario suggests that following the climatic crisis, the reconstitution of soils by aeolian sedimentation could have been an important factor of Bantu expansion.     

Recent innovations in hazard and risk analysis

Air pollution has been a major transboundary problem and a matter of global concern for decades. Climate change and air pollution are closely coupled. Just as air pollution can have adverse effects on human health and ecosystems, it can also impact the earth’s climate. As we enter an era of rapid climate change, the implications for air quality need to be better understood, both for the purpose of air quality management and as one of the societal consequences of climate change. In this study, an attempt has been made to estimate the current air quality to forecast the air quality index of an urban station Kolkata (22.65°N, 88.45°E), India for the next 5 years with neural network models. The annual and seasonal variability in the air quality indicates that the winter season is mostly affected by the pollutants. Air quality index (AQI) is estimated as a geometric mean of the pollutants considered. Different neural network models are attempted to select the best model to forecast the AQI of Kolkata. The meteorological parameters and AQI of the previous day are utilized to train the models to forecast the AQI of the next day during the period from 2003 to 2012. The selection of the best model is made after validation with observation from 2013 to 2015. The radial basis functional (RBF) model is found to be the best network model for the purpose. The RBF model with various architectures is tried to obtain precise forecast with minimum error. RBF of 5:5-91-1:1 structure is found to be the best fit for forecasting the AQI of Kolkata.     

Calcium Carbonate and Phosphate Reference Materials for Monitoring Bulk and Microanalytical Determination of Sr Isotopes

In situ laser ablation analyses rely on the microanalytical homogeneity of reference materials (RMs) and a similar matrix and mass fraction between unknown samples and RMs to obtain reliable results. Suitable carbonate and phosphate RMs for determination of Sr isotope ratios in such materials are limited. Thus, we determined ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of several carbonate (JCt‐1, JCp‐1, MACS‐1, MACS‐3) and phosphate (MAPS‐4, MAPS‐5, NIST SRM 1400, NIST SRM 1486) international RMs using dissolved samples and two different multi‐collector inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometers (MC‐ICP‐MS). Our Sr isotope data are in agreement with published data and have an improved measurement precision for some RMs. For MACS‐1, we present the first ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr value. We tested the suitability of these materials for microanalytical analyses by LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS, with two different laser ablation systems: a conventional nanosecond laser and a state‐of‐the‐art femtosecond laser. We investigated the RMs micro‐homogeneity and compared the data with our solution data. Both laser ablation systems yielded identical ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios within uncertainty to the solution data for RMs with low interferences of REEs. Therefore, these carbonate and phosphate RMs can be used to achieve accurate and precise results for in situ Sr isotope investigations by LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS of similar materials.     

Assessing the performance and uncertainty analysis of the SWAT and RBNN models for simulation of sediment yield in the Nagwa watershed,India

Abstract

The process-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the data-driven radial basis neural network (RBNN) model were evaluated for simulating sediment load for the Nagwa watershed in Jharkhand, India, where soil erosion is a severe problem. The SWAT model calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm version 2 and the bootstrap technique was applied on the RBNN model to analyse uncertainty in model output. The percentage of data bracketed by the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU) and the r factor were the two measures used to assess the goodness of calibration. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the value of r factor (r = 0.41) in the RBNN model is less than that of SWAT model (r = 0.79), which means there is a wider prediction interval for the SWAT model results. More values of observed sediment yield were bracketed by the 95PPU in the RBNN model. Thus, the RBNN model estimates the sediment yield values more accurately and with less uncertainty.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor H. Aksoy

Citation Singh, A., Imtiyaz, M., Isaac, R.K., and Denis, D.M., 2014. Assessing the performance and uncertainty analysis of the SWAT and RBNN models for simulation of sediment yield in the Nagwa watershed, India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 351–364.     

Long-term relationships between climate oscillation and basin-scale hydrological variability during rainy season in eastern Northeast Brazil

ABSTRACT

The high variability in the hydrological regime of the Eastern Hydrological Region (EHR) of Northeast Brazil often results in floods and droughts, leading to serious socio-economic issues. Therefore, this work aimed to investigate connections between spatiotemporal hydrological variability of the EHR and large-scale climate phenomena. Multivariate statistical techniques were applied to relate climate indices with hydrological variables within two representative river basins in the EHR. The results indicated a multi-annual relationship between the state of the sea surface temperature of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and anomalous hydrological variability in the basins. In addition, the northern Tropical Atlantic conditions were shown to play an important role in modulating the long-term variability of the hydrological response of the basins, whilst only extreme ENSO anomalies seemed to affect the rainy season. This knowledge is an important step towards long-term prediction of hydrological conditions and contributes to the improvement of water resources planning and management in the EHR.     

Can pollution bias peatland paleoclimate reconstruction?

Peatland testate amoebae are widely used to reconstruct paleohydrological/climatic changes, but many species are also known to respond to pollutants. Peatlands around the world have been exposed to anthropogenic and intermittent natural pollution through the late Holocene. This raises the question: can pollution lead to changes in the testate amoeba paleoecological record that could be erroneously interpreted as a climatic change? To address this issue we applied testate amoeba transfer functions to the results of experiments adding pollutants (N, P, S, Pb, O₃) to peatlands and similar ecosystems. We found a significant effect in only one case, an experiment in which N and P were added, suggesting that pollution-induced biases are limited. However, we caution researchers to be aware of this possibility when interpreting paleoecological records. Studies characterising the paleoecological response to pollution allow pollution impacts to be tracked and distinguished from climate change.     

Facing climatic and anthropogenic changes in the Mediterranean basin: What will be the medium-term impact on water stress?

The Mediterranean basin has been identified as one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climatic and anthropogenic changes. A methodology accounting for the basin specific conditions is developed to assess the current and future water stress state of this region. The medium-term evolution of water stress is investigated using climatic scenarios and a water-use scenario based on efficiency improvements following the recommendations of the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development. Currently, the southern and eastern rims are experiencing high to severe water stress. By the 2050 horizon, a 30–50% decline in freshwater resources is simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. While total water withdrawals would stabilize, or even decrease (10–40%), in several northern catchments, they would double in southern and eastern catchments. These changes should significantly increase water stress over the Mediterranean basin and exacerbate the disparities between rims.     

Evolution of calculations of the virtual dipole moment of the Earth for reconstructing the oceanic inversion magnetic layer’s parameters

The VDM (virtual dipole moment) is one of the most significant characteristics describing the behavior of the time evolution of the terrestrial magnetic field. However, we have revealed that the formulas with which VDM calculations are performed often do not coincide with each other in various literature sources. Hence, results are obtained from these calculations that cannot be identical. Their correctness is verified by comparing the dimension and obtained results with the known value of the VDM for our time.