两种统计降尺度方法在秦岭山地的适用性

基于ASD（automated statistical downscaling）统计降尺度模型提供的多元线性回归和岭回归两种统计降尺度方法,采用RCP4.5（representative concentration pathways 4.5）和RCP8.5情景下全球气候模式MPI-ESM-LR输出的预报因子数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析数据和秦岭山地周边10个气象站观测数据,评估两种统计降尺度方法在秦岭山地的适用性及预估秦岭山地未来3个时期（2006-2040年、2041-2070年和2071-2100年）的平均气温和降水。结果表明:率定期和验证期内,两种统计降尺度方法均可以较好地模拟研究区域的平均气温和降水的变化特征,且多元线性回归的模拟效果优于岭回归。在未来气候情景下,两种统计降尺度方法预估的研究区域平均气温均呈明显上升趋势,气温增幅随辐射强迫增加而增大。降水方面,21世纪未来3个时期降水均呈不明显减少趋势,但季节分配发生变化。综合考虑两种统计降尺度方法在秦岭山地对平均气温和降水的模拟效果和情景预估结果,认为多元线性回归降尺度方法更适用于秦岭山地气候变化的降尺度预估研究。     

川西高原中部一次极端暴雪成因分析

利用0.5°×0.5°的ECWMF再分析资料,常规气象资料以及西南区域数值预报模式模拟等资料,应用天气分析和诊断方法,对2016年2月21日川西高原中东部的极端暴雪天气过程进行系统分析。结果表明:500hPa贝加尔湖横槽旋转南下使得冷空气并入川西高原中部的低槽中,其与西南暖湿气流交汇产生的锋生以及西南急流存在是此次暴雪天气产生的重要原因;随着副高的北进,此次强降雪开始之前有来自于孟加拉湾和南海的两支水汽输送,西南低空急流稳定维持为此次暴雪提供了充足的水汽。MPV2在此次暴雪过程中起到了重要作用;强降雪主要发生在SVD(Slantwise Vorticity Development)强烈发展的时段内,暴雪落区与SVD发展最强烈的区域重合;西南区域数值预报模式提前6h对此次暴雪的形势场和物理量场都做出了较为准确的预报,其中垂直速度和水汽条件预报与实况最吻合,但降水预报的量级较实况偏弱一个量级,强降水落区比强度预报更准确。     

台风暴雨数值预报中ATOVS资料的变分同化试验

利用ATOVS卫星辐射率资料和NCEP资料,采用中尺度数值模式WRF(V3.3)及其同化系统WRF-3DVar,设计了几组同化试验方案,对由0908号台风"莫拉克"导致的台湾南部2009年8月8—9日特大暴雨过程进行数值预报。结果表明,直接同化ATOVS辐射率资料对初始温度场、湿度场和风场均有较明显的改善,其中连续循环同化试验的改善效果最显著,同化后初始场增加了暴雨中心上空对流不稳定性,同时风场也表现出更强的低层辐合、高层辐散的中尺度特征。对比不同的辐射率资料发现,同化MHS资料对湿度场改进效果较好,同化AMSUA资料对温度场和风场改进效果较好,同时同化MHS和AMSUA资料改进效果整体上要好于前两者。在对降水预报定量检验中,同化试验的整体评分要高于控制试验,特别是降水临界值超过300 mm后评分提高最为显著。连续循环同化试验对这次台风暴雨的预报与实况最为接近。     

三峡地区枯水期强降水前期指标分析

利用三峡地区东部６个站１９６１－１９９４年１０月－１月的逐日降水量资料和逐日历史天气图资料，统计分析了５００ｈＰａ环流形势呈“大Ｕ”型的条件下，三峡地区有无区域性强降水的前期指标，并用１９９５年资料进行检验，１９９６年资料进行试报。结果表明可根据５００ｈＰａ天气图上小槽位置，孟加拉湾槽位置及地面天气图上锋面位置３个指标的组合并结合其它消空条件能较好地预报“大Ｕ”型环流形势下三峡地区有无区域性强降水     

雷电灾害风险评估报告制作管理系统设计与实现

以GB/T 21714.2为基础,以Delphi7.0为开发语言,融合Gis叠加、Microsoft Word自动化等计算机技术,研制而成了一套程序化、智能化、规范化的多功能业务系统,提高了原有雷电灾害风险评估业务的规范性,缩短了评估流程,提高了评估精度。     

Prediction of landslide displacement with an ensemble-based extreme learning machine and copula models

Research on the dynamics of landslide displacement forms the basis for landslide hazard prevention. This paper proposes a novel data-driven approach to monitor and predict the landslide displacement. In the first part, autoregressive moving average time series models are constructed to analyze the autocorrelation of landslide triggering factors. A linear ensemble-based extreme learning machine using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator is applied in predicting the displacement of landslides. Five benchmarking data-driven models, the support vector machine, neural network, random forest, k-nearest neighbor, and the classical extreme learning machine, are considered as baseline models for validating the ensemble-based extreme learning machines. Numerical experiments demonstrated that the proposed prediction model produces the smallest prediction errors among all the algorithms tested. In the second part, parametric copula models are fitted on the predicted displacement, to investigate the relationship between the triggering factors and landslide displacement values. The Gumbel-Hougaard copula model performs best, which indicates strong upper tail correlation between the triggering factors and displacement values. Thresholds for the triggering factors can be obtained by monitoring the landslide moving patterns with large displacement values. The effectiveness and utility of the proposed data-driven approach have been confirmed with the landslide case study in the region of the Three Gorges Reservoir.     

藏北路线地质

青藏高原的形成和发展一向为中外地质学家所关注。藏北断块地处青藏高原的北半部,南以班公错—东巧大断裂为界,北至昆仑山南侧。该区自然条件恶劣,交通困难,人迹罕到,至今仍是地球上研究最差的地区之一。     

Trace and rare earth element geochemistry of the Upper Triassic mudstones in the southern Ordos Basin,Central China

Oil‐source correlation studies have demonstrated that the crude oils in the Ordos Basin were mainly derived from organic‐rich lacustrine mudstones of the Yanchang Formation. The sedimentology, petrology and organic geochemistry of these mudstones have been studied intensively, but their trace and rare earth element (REE) characteristics have received little attention. In this paper, we present trace and rare earth element data of the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation mudstones in the southern Ordos Basin to constrain the palaeoenvironment, provenance and depositional setting. Our results show that the REE and trace element concentrations of the Yanchang Formation mudstones are higher than those of the upper continental crust (UCC). The Sr contents and Sr/Ba and Y/Ho ratios of these mudstones indicate the absence of a marine transgression during the sedimentation of the Upper Triassic mudstones. The depositional environment of the Upper Triassic mudstones was slightly oxic as evidenced by the values of Eu/Eu*, Ce/Ce*, Ce_anom, δU, U/Th, V/Cr and Ni/Co. The UCC‐normalized distribution pattern of REEs, spider diagrams, the ratios of related elements, the bivariate diagrams of Th/Sc–Zr/Sc and La/Th–Hf and the ternary plots of La–Th–Sc and Th–Sc–Zr/10 signify that the provenances of the Chang9–7 mudstones were mainly derived from a continental island arc, whereas the provenances of the Chang6–3 mudstones were mainly derived from a mixture of continental island arc and active continental margin, and the latter contain less recycled materials. Combined with the previous studies of detrital zircon dating and petrography of the Yanchang Formation sandstones in the southern Ordos basin, we propose that the Qinling orogenic belt served as one of the primary source regions occurring between the Chang7 and Chang6 periods, corresponding to the initial uplift of the west Qinling Mountains due to the collision between the Yangtze and North China blocks. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

塔里木盆地构造—古地理演化

摘要构造—古地理演化对盆地分析与油气资源评价具有重要意义,通过古构造恢复结合区域地质背景,综合分析塔里木盆地构造—古地理演化过程。塔里木盆地经历克拉通基底形成阶段、南华—震旦纪强伸展—挤压阶段、寒武—奥陶纪弱伸展—强挤压阶段、志留—白垩纪振荡升降变迁阶段、新生代弱伸展—强挤压阶段等5大构造演化阶段。塔里木盆地南华—震旦纪发育北东向陆内窄深裂谷系统,不同于显生宙;寒武纪—早奥陶世发育“两台一盆”的“东西分块”的大型克拉通内碳酸盐岩台地,中-晚奥陶世碳酸盐岩台地快速演变为“南北分带”;志留—泥盆纪形成克拉通内坳陷海相碎屑岩沉积体系;石炭—二叠纪发育克拉通内碎屑岩夹碳酸盐岩的浅海—海陆过渡相沉积;中生代发育一系列分隔的快速变迁的陆内坳陷碎屑岩沉积;新生代发育前陆盆地陆相磨拉石沉积,形成复杂的叠合盆地。受控原—新特提斯洋与南天山洋的开启—闭合,以及新生代印度板块挤压的远程效应,塔里木盆地构造—古地理具有多期性、多样性、迁移性与强烈的改造性,不同于典型的克拉通盆地。