永清MS 4.3地震前永清井水温异常分析

2017年12月永清井观测温度急剧下降,采用该井水温、水位多年观测数据,从仪器测量原理及精细温度梯度测量出发,结合井孔资料,认为该变化为永清M_S 4.3地震（井震距<30 km）发生前的异常信息。利用正弦累加模型计算温度异常持续时间和幅度,发现该异常变化存在2个周期：①周期42天,温度变化幅度为0.042 12℃;②周期16.77天,温度变化幅度为0.018 62℃。分析认为,区域应力状态发生变化,使含水层渗透性受到影响,从而间接影响到井下温度传感器安放处水温。地震发生后近距离观测到水温异常变化尚属首次,利用模型对变化时间与幅度进行量化提取,可为经验预报、统计预报提供经典震例。     

Development of a predictive model for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Clostridium difficile</Emphasis> infection incidence in hospitals using Gaussian mixture model and Dempster–Shafer theory

Clostridium difficile infection is one of the major patient safety concerns in hospitals worldwide. Clostridium difficile infection can have high economic burden to patients, hospitals, and government. Limited work has been done in the area of predictive modeling. In this article, A new predictive model based on Gaussian mixture model and Dempster–Shafter theory is proposed to predict Clostridium difficile infection incidence in hospitals. First, the Gaussian mixture model and expectation–maximization algorithms are used to generate explicit probability criteria of risk factors based on the given data. Second, Dempster–Shafter theory is used to predict the Clostridium difficile infection incidence based on the generated probability criteria that have different beliefs attributing to their different credits. The main procedure includes (1) generate the probability criteria model using Gaussian mixture model and expectation–maximization algorithm; (2) determine the credit of the probability criteria; (3) generate the basic probability assignment; (4) discount the evidences; (5) aggregate the evidences using Dempster combining rule; (6) predict Clostridium difficile infection incidence using pignistic probability transformation. Results show that the model has a higher accuracy than an existing model. The proposed model can generate the criteria ratings of risk factors automatically, which would potentially prevent the imprecision caused by the subjective judgement of experts. The proposed model can assist risk managers and hospital administrators in the prediction and control of Clostridium difficile infection incidence with optimizing their resources.     

江西省浅水湖泊大型底栖无脊椎动物多样性特征和影响因素

2019年春、秋两季,对江西省76个湖泊的底栖动物进行了调查,在分析其群落结构和多样性的基础上,探讨了多样性与环境因子间的关系,旨在确定影响大型底栖无脊椎动物多样性的重要环境因子,以期为江西省湖泊的精准化管理提供科学依据和技术支持。两次调查共检出140个分类单元,以水生昆虫和软体动物为主,摇蚊类物种数占水生昆虫物种数的53.62%。富营养指示种(长足摇蚊属一种和摇蚊属一种)为春、秋两季的优势分类单元,湖沼典型种(长足摇蚊属一种、摇蚊属一种、石田螺属一种、苏氏尾鳃蚓和霍甫水丝蚓)的丰度变化导致了群落结构的季节变化。大型底栖无脊椎动物α多样性水平较低,基于PLSR和PLS-SEM的分析结果表明,影响大型底栖无脊椎动物多样性指标的环境因子既与藻类种群动态密切相关,也与水质状态有关。大型底栖无脊椎动物多样性与藻类种群状态存在稳定的联系,不受季节因素的影响,过高的藻类丰度不利于大型底栖无脊椎动物多样性的提高,而较好的水质状况有利于大型底栖无脊椎动物多样性的提高。为保护江西省湖泊大型底栖无脊椎动物资源,应在具有渔业养殖功能的湖泊和城镇湖泊中进行水生植物的修复工作,使藻型湖泊向草型湖泊方向演化;对一...     

An enhanced bit-wise parallel algorithm for real-time GPS software receiver

Software-based global positioning system (GPS) receivers perform all the baseband signal processing and the high level functions on a general purpose processor. The heavy computational loads of the signal correlation in baseband processing make it difficult for software receivers to operate in real time. In order to improve the real-time performance, an enhanced bit-wise parallel algorithm has been developed in this study. The enhanced algorithm has been implemented and tested in a 12 channels real-time GPS software receiver. The system consists of a radio frequency front end, a data acquisition board and software that runs on a laptop with a Pentium-M 1.5 GHz processor running the Window^® XP operating system. The data acquisition board packs the 2-bit intermediate frequency samples with a 2-bit in/8-bit out shift register and transfers the packed samples to laptop through a USB port. The software running on the laptop performs all the baseband and navigation processing in real time. The test results show that the enhanced algorithm significantly improves the real-time performance of the software receiver by reducing the computational operations for signal correlation by 50% compared with the existing bit-wise parallel algorithm. Furthermore, the enhanced algorithm also reduces the amount of required memory for storing data for signal correlation.     

Development of a coupled pile-to-pile interaction model for the dynamic analysis of pile groups subjected to vertical loads

Acta Geotechnica - This paper presents a new analytical model for calculating the dynamic performance of pile groups subjected to vertical loads. The derived solution allows considering the robust...     

Addressing regional disparities in allowance allocation in China’s national emissions trading scheme

China's national emissions trading scheme (ETS) is expected to be operational in 2017. Effectively addressing regional disparities at the provincial level in allowance allocation will greatly affect the acceptance of the allocation approach and thus deserves careful consideration. This article aims to explore possible approaches for addressing regional disparities, by introducing regional adjustment factors (RAF) in free allowance allocation. Based on the principle of ‘national unified rules?+?stricter adjustment by provincial authorities’, four single factorial and three multi-factorial methods are proposed to calculate the RAFs, through a normalization process. These methods are associated with the most acknowledged factors dealing with regional disparities, including per-capita GDP; per-capita CO₂ emissions; industrial sector contribution to GDP; economy-wide emissions control targets and CO₂ emissions per unit GDP, per unit power and heat output and per unit industrial added value. A comparative analysis is made for the seven methods, in regard to value distribution and level of matching regional political demand.

Key policy insights

• ‘Allowing stricter regional adjustment’ represents a dominant feature for China's national ETS, which aims to address regional disparities and government demands.

• How the adjustment plan is designed will have a major influence on the operation of the national ETS and regional business competitiveness. Provincial governments need to consider the trade-off between auction revenue and local business competitiveness.

• Applying the different methods leads to more scattered results for some regions, for whom the choice of adjustment approach will therefore have a greater impact.

• Based on the analysis, four adjustment methods that generate similar results – the per-capita GDP-based method, the intensity reduction target-based method, the 12th FYP target-based method and intensity-based grandfathering – are recommended for most provincial-level regions, with some exceptions.

     

我国红黏土物理力学性能研究现状及展望

采用文献综述研究方法,梳理了红黏土研究成果并进行了评述,对红黏土的物理力学性质进行了归纳和总结,对红黏土的性能改良研究成果进行了汇总,指出红黏土的物理力学性能的差异性根源在于微观结构的个性差异存在,红黏土性能改良的困难在于红黏土的水敏性和热敏性,红黏土性能改良的关键在于控制其含水率。最后指出了研究不足在于普适性理论和知识体系没有构建,改良方法和技术探究应该加强,展望了红黏土性能改良的物理—化学—生物耦合作用的机理及复合技术开发和应用的研究。     

Orbital control on cyclical organic matter accumulation in Early Silurian Longmaxi Formation shales

High resolution(939 samples)total organic carbon content(TOC)analyses were conducted on the Shuanghe Section of^152.6 m in the Changning area,Sichuan Basin.The sampling section was divided into two units considering the distinct-different deposit environment and sediments accumulation rate.The lower part(Unit 1)and the peer part(Unit 2)with high resolution sample spacing(0.08–0.4 m)enables the identification of the precession cycle in two sedimentary sequences with distinct different sedimentary accumulation rate.MTM Power spectral analyses on untuned TOC series reveals significant peaks exceeding above the 95%confidence level and shows that both Unit 1 and Unit 2 have recorded Milankovitch cycles of 405 kyr long eccentricity,short eccentricity,obliquity and precession.The floating astronomical time scale(ATS)was constructed on the Shuanghe Section in the Early Silurian(~439.673–444.681 Ma),and which was calibrated by 405 kyr long eccentricity cycles.The total duration of the Wufeng and Longmaxi shales is 5.01 Myr.The floating ATS used for estimating the duration of the graptolite zones and each stage in the study interval.Finally,we postulated two models that could verify the linkage between orbital cycle and organic accumulation.To make sure whether productivity or preservation is the main factor that under long eccentricity control,the phase correlation between the obtained filtered signal and the theoretical orbital solution should be made clear in the further research.     

基于贝叶斯定理的地震危险性概率预测研究

由于地震孕育过程的复杂性和观测技术的局限性,不同地震观测资料表现出异常变化与后续较大地震的对应关系存在不确定性,因此对预测意见进行概率表达是一种科学恰当的做法。本文基于泊松分布的危险区背景地震概率预测和单项预测方法(包括测震、流体、形变、电磁等学科)的历史预测效能,采用贝叶斯定理计算得到单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果,进而采用综合概率方法,给出基于多种单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果。短期概率预测初步结果表明,2018年2～9月,中国大陆72%的5级以上地震都位于相对高概率预测区域。     

2017年3月27日漾濞5.1级地震前后气枪震源观测走时数据的变化

以2017年3月27日漾濞5.1级地震为例,根据区域特性和信噪比要求,选取数据较为完整的6个台站记录的2017年1月1日～6月6日期间的宾川地震信号发射台气枪震源波形资料,采用互相关检测技术提取6个台站各自稳定震相的走时数据,并对漾濞5.1级地震前后走时数据的变化情况进行分析。结果表明,漾濞5.1级地震前后6个台站各自稳定震相存在较为明显的走时变化,且短期内走时变化具有较好的同步性,相关台站异常幅度大小和异常出现时间存在细小差异。地震发生前,6个台站走时低值异常过程明显,以YUL台最为显著。地震发生前后走时变化形态特征为双“V”型,漾濞5.1级地震发生在第1个“V”型末端。地震发生后,不同方位相关台站受地震的影响程度不同,走时波动大小存在差异。