Extended two-body problem for rotating rigid bodies

Given the interest in future space missions devoted to the exploration of key moons in the solar system and that may involve libration point orbits, an efficient design strategy for transfers between moons is introduced that leverages the dynamics in these multi-body systems. The moon-to-moon analytical transfer (MMAT) method is introduced, comprised of a general methodology for transfer design between the vicinities of the moons in any given system within the context of the circular restricted three-body problem, useful regardless of the orbital planes in which the moons reside. A simplified model enables analytical constraints to efficiently determine the feasibility of a transfer between two different moons moving in the vicinity of a common planet. In particular, connections between the periodic orbits of such two different moons are achieved. The strategy is applicable for any type of direct transfers that satisfy the analytical constraints. Case studies are presented for the Jovian and Uranian systems. The transition of the transfers into higher-fidelity ephemeris models confirms the validity of the MMAT method as a fast tool to provide possible transfer options between two consecutive moons.

     

Adaptation to climate change in Africa: Challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia

Africa is widely held to be highly vulnerable to future climate change and Ethiopia is often cited as one of the most extreme examples. With this in mind we seek to identify entry points to integrate short- to medium-term climate risk reduction within development activities in Africa, drawing from experiences in Ethiopia. To achieve this we employ a range of data and methods. We examine the changing nature of climate risks using analysis of recent climate variability, future climate scenarios and their secondary impacts. We assess the effects of climate variability on agricultural production and national GDP. Entry points and knowledge gaps in relation to mainstreaming climate risks in Ethiopia are identified using the Government's plan for poverty reduction. We end with a case study incorporating climate risks through drought insurance within the current social protection programme in Ethiopia, which provides support to 8.3 million people.Rainfall behaviour in Ethiopia shows no marked emergent changes and future climate projections show continued warming but very mixed patterns of rainfall change. Economic analysis highlights sensitivities within the economy to large-scale drought, however, while the effects are clear in major drought years in other years the relationship is weak. For social protection fairly small positive and negative effects on the number of recipients and frequency of cash payments during drought occur under the extreme range of climate model rainfall projections (2020s).Our analysis highlights several important challenges and opportunities for addressing climate risks. Challenges primarily relate to the large uncertainties in climate projections for parts of Africa, a weak evidence base of complex, often non-deterministic, climate-society interactions and institutional issues. Opportunities relate to the potential for low-regrets measures to reduce vulnerability to current climate variability which can be integrated with relatively modest effort within a shift in Africa from a disaster-focused view of climate to a long-term perspective that emphasises livelihood security and vulnerability reduction.     

Evolutionary principles applied to mission planning problems

The space mission planning process is considered as a hybrid optimal control problem. Hybrid optimal control problems are problems that include categorical variables in the problem formulation. For example, an interplanetary trajectory may consist of a sequence of low thrust arcs, impulses and planetary flybys. However, for each choice of the structure of the mission, for example, for a particular choice of the number of planetary flybys to be used, there is a corresponding optimal trajectory. It is not a priori clear which structure will yield the most efficient mission. In this work we present a mathematical framework for describing such problems and solution methods for the hybrid optimal control problem based on evolutionary principles that have the potential for being a robust solver of such problems. As an example, the methods are used to find the optimal choice of three asteroids to visit in sequence, out of a set of eight candidate asteroids, in order to minimize the fuel required.     

A Thin Ring Model for the Oh Megamaser in Iiizw35

We present a model for the OH megamaser emission in the starburst galaxy IIIZw35. The observed diffuse and compact OH maser components in this source are explained by a single phase of unsaturated clumpy gas distributed in a thin ring structure and amplifying background continuum. We emphasize the importance of clumpiness in the OH masing medium, an effect that has not been fully appreciated previously.The model explains why multiple bright spots are seen only at the ring tangents while smoother emission is found elsewhere. Both the observed velocity gradients and the line to continuum ratios around the ring enquire a geometry where most of the seed photons come from a continuum emission which lies outside the OH ring. To explain both the OH and continuum brightness, free-free absorbing gas is required along the ring axis to partially absorb the far side of the ring. It is proposed that the required geometry arises from an inwardly propagating ring of starburst activity.     

The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the nature of the relative bias between galaxies of different spectral type

We present an analysis of the relative bias between early- and late-type galaxies in the Two-degree Field Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS) – as defined by the η parameter of Madgwick et al., which quantifies the spectral type of galaxies in the survey. We calculate counts in cells for flux-limited samples of early- and late-type galaxies, using approximately cubical cells with sides ranging from 7 to  42 h ⁻¹ Mpc  . We measure the variance of the counts in cells using the method of Efstathiou et al., which we find requires a correction for a finite volume effect equivalent to the integral constraint bias of the autocorrelation function. Using a maximum-likelihood technique we fit lognormal models to the one-point density distribution, and develop methods of dealing with biases in the recovered variances resulting from this technique. We then examine the joint density distribution function,   f (δ_E, δ_L)  , and directly fit deterministic bias models to the joint counts in cells. We measure a linear relative bias of ≈1.3, which does not vary significantly with ℓ. A deterministic linear bias model is, however, a poor approximation to the data, especially on small scales  (ℓ≤ 28  h ⁻¹ Mpc)  where deterministic linear bias is excluded at high significance. A power-law bias model with index   b ₁≈ 0.75  is a significantly better fit to the data on all scales, although linear bias becomes consistent with the data for  ℓ≳ 40  h ⁻¹ Mpc  .     

The Location of Creativity and U.S. Companies in Germany

This article analyzes how far U.S. companies locate subsidiaries in need of highly skilled staff in state locations in Germany that have a high ranking of creativity. Such locations should provide an especially attractive location for certain “creative” staff, which should be of special interest to U.S. companies in need of highly skilled staff. Analyzing U.S. companies that were established since the year 2000 and with more than fifty staff, we find support for our propositions that nonmanufacturing and organizationally higher rank subsidiaries with a need for urban infrastructure and connectedness are located in creative states in Germany.     

Land subsidence and earth fissures in south-central and southern Arizona,USA

Land subsidence due to groundwater overdraft has been an ongoing problem in south-central and southern Arizona (USA) since the 1940s. The first earth fissure attributed to excessive groundwater withdrawal was discovered in the early 1950s near Picacho. In some areas of the state, groundwater-level declines of more than 150 m have resulted in extensive land subsidence and earth fissuring. Land subsidence in excess of 5.7 m has been documented in both western metropolitan Phoenix and Eloy. The Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) has been monitoring land subsidence since 2002 using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and since 1998 using a global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The ADWR InSAR program has identified more than 25 individual land subsidence features that cover an area of more than 7,300 km². Using InSAR data in conjunction with groundwater-level datasets, ADWR is able to monitor land subsidence areas as well as identify areas that may require additional monitoring. One area of particular concern is the Willcox groundwater basin in southeastern Arizona, which is the focus of this paper. The area is experiencing rapid groundwater declines, as much as 32.1 m during 2005–2014 (the largest land subsidence rate in Arizona State—up to 12 cm/year), and a large number of earth fissures. The declining groundwater levels in Arizona are a challenge for both future groundwater availability and mitigating land subsidence associated with these declines. ADWR’s InSAR program will continue to be a critical tool for monitoring land subsidence due to excessive groundwater withdrawal.     

Enhanced runout and erosion by overland flow at low pressure and sub-freezing conditions: Experiments and application to Mars

We present the results of laboratory experiments to study the sediment transport and erosional capacity of water at current martian temperature and pressure. We have performed laboratory simulation experiments in which a stream of water flowed over test beds at low temperature (∼−20 °C) and low pressure (∼7 mbar). The slope angle was 14° and three sediment types were tested. We compared the erosive ability, runout and resulting morphologies to experiments performed at ambient terrestrial temperature (∼20 °C) and pressure (∼1000 mbar), and also to experiments performed under low pressure only. We observed that, as expected, water is unstable in the liquid phase at low temperature and low pressure, with boiling and freezing in competition. Despite this, our results show that water at low temperature and low pressure has an equivalent and sometimes greater erosion rate than at terrestrial temperature and pressure. Water flows faster over the sediment body under low temperature and low pressure conditions because the formation of ice below the liquid-sediment contact inhibits infiltration. Flow speed and therefore runout distance are increased. Experiments at low pressure but Earth-ambient temperature suggest that flow speeds are faster under these conditions than under Earth-ambient pressure and temperature. We hypothesise that this is due to gas bubbles, created by the boiling of the water under low atmospheric pressure, impeding liquid infiltration. We have found that both basal freezing and low pressure increase the flow propagation speed - effects not included in current models of fluvial activity on Mars. Any future modelling of water flows on Mars should consider this extra mobility and incorporate the large reduction in fluid loss through infiltration into the substrate.     

1961-2005年宁夏极端降水事件变化趋势分析

 利用1961-2005年宁夏逐日降水量资料,将降水量划分为9个级别,分析了宁夏45 a来各级别降水日数的变化趋势。结果表明：年降水量以平均3.6 mm/10 a的速率减少;近15 a来,冬、春季降水量明显减少,夏、秋季10.0 mm以下降水日数明显减少,25.0 mm以上降水日数明显增加。以1986年为界的气候变暖前后25.1～50.0 mm级别的降水日数夏季和年增加的显著性概率分别达到了5%和1%,降水频率分布呈现向高级别降水量增加的变化趋势。     

On the history of the lunar orbit

A frequency-dependent model of tidal friction is used in the determination of the time rate of change of the lunar orbital elements and the angular velocity of the Earth. The variational equations consider eccentricity, the solar tide on the Earth, Earth oblateness, and higher-order terms in the Earth's tidal potential. A linearized solution of the equations governing the precission of the Earth's rotational angular momentum and the lunar ascending node is found. This allows the analytical averaging of the variational equations over the period of relative precession which, though large, is necessarily small in comparison to the time step of the numerical integrator that yields the system history over geological time. Results for this history are presented and are identified as consistent with origin of the Moon by capture. This model may be applied to any planet-satellite system where evolution under tidal friction is of interest.