Sea-level change and paleogeographic reconstructions,southern Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Forty-eight new and previously published radiocarbon ages constrain deglacial and postglacial sea levels on southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Sea level fell rapidly from its high stand of about +75 m elevation just before 14 000 cal BP (12 000 radiocarbon yrs BP) to below the present shoreline by 13 200 cal BP (11 400 radiocarbon years BP). The sea fell below its present level 1000 years later in the central Strait of Georgia and 2000 years later in the northern Strait of Georgia, reflecting regional differences in ice sheet retreat and downwasting. Direct observations only constrain the low stand to be below ?11 m and above ?40 m. Analysis of the crustal isostatic depression with equations utilizing exponential decay functions appropriate to the Cascadia subduction zone, however, places the low stand at ?30 ± 5 m at about 11 200 cal BP (9800 BP). The inferred low stand for southern Vancouver Island, when compared to the sea-level curve previously derived for the central Strait of Georgia to the northwest, generates differential isostatic depression that is consistent with the expected crustal response between the two regions. Morphologic and sub-bottom features previously interpreted to indicate a low stand of ?50 to ?65 m are re-evaluated and found to be consistent with a low stand of ?30 ± 5 m. Submarine banks in eastern Juan de Fuca Strait were emergent at the time of the low stand, but marine passages persisted between southern Vancouver Island and the mainland. The crustal uplift presently occurring in response to the Late Pleistocene collapse of the southwestern sector of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet amounts to about 0.1 mm/yr. The small glacial isostatic adjustment rate is a consequence of low-viscosity mantle in this tectonically active region.     

Influence of upper air conditions on the Patagonia icefields

Upper-air conditions archived in the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis have been used to investigate changes in precipitation and snowfall over the Patagonia icefields during 1960–99. Apparently, whereas total precipitation has not changed, warming has caused a decrease in the amount falling as snow. Precipitation at a site is taken to be proportional to the product of the relative humidity and the component of the wind in a particular critical direction, both at 850 hPa ( 1400 m) at a point over the ocean to the west of the icefields; whether it falls as rain or snow is assumed to depend on whether the temperature at the elevation of the site is above or below + 2 °C. The critical direction is assumed to be 270°, which is perpendicular to the north–south trending Andes and is also the prevailing wind direction in this zone of strong westerlies. Because of the scarcity of precipitation records on or near the icefields, the constant of proportionality cannot be determined, so the investigation is limited to examining relative changes in those upper air variables. Warming at 850 hPa has been 0.5 °C over the 40 years, both winter and summer, with the effects that it has: (1) shifted from snow to rain 5% of the precipitation, the total of which has changed little, and (2) increased annual melt in the ablation areas by 0.5 m w.e. The icefields have been losing mass since at least 1870, so this 40-year trend represents only an acceleration of the longer-term trend of adjusting to climate change since the Little Ice Age.     

Rural livelihoods and climate variability in Ningxia, Northwest China

This study addresses the role of climate variability in the livelihoods of agricultural communities in Ningxia, Northwest China. Data sources comprise meteorological observations and official reports, complemented by questionnaires and focus group discussions designed around a livelihoods framework. Sample villages were located in three different agricultural systems: irrigated, mixed irrigated/grazing, and rainfed. Much of Ningxia is perennially dry and this is a significant limiting factor to agricultural production in the region, exacerbated by drought and buffered by irrigation mainly supplied from the Yellow River. Climate observations show stable temperatures from the 1950s to the 1980s followed by a positive trend (0.38°C/decade 1961–2010). Precipitation shows very modest trends and low decadal variability. Recent climate variability, particularly a drought from 2004–2006, was perceived to have had a significant effect on agricultural production and access to water, but it was not the only challenge respondents had faced. Susceptibility to drought was higher in the mixed irrigated and grazing and rainfed areas, due to farmers’ greater exposure to climatic hazards and because a higher proportion of their income originated from farming activities. Respondents were using a wide range of measures to retain and enhance soil moisture and maintain agricultural production. The discussion examines challenges in disentangling the role of climate within rapidly changing livelihood systems.     

Not developed yet? Alternative ways to include locations without changes in land use change models

Biogeographers have developed a new generation of statistical models called presence-only models, which require no data concerning the absence of a species and do not assume that the absence of a species indicates habitat unsuitability. Both characteristics are especially useful when modeling a species that is actively spreading across a landscape. Although urban expansion is sometimes equated to an invading species, the applicability of presence-only models has not yet been explored when modeling urban growth. This article compares predictions of urban growth using a presence-only model (ecological niche factor analysis) and a more traditional presence–absence model (logistic regression). An additional model used pseudo-absence sites, from the presence-only model output, as input into the presence–absence model. The models were applied to New Jersey's Barnegat Bay Watershed. Overall, the traditional presence–absence model performed the best, although the presence-only model was sufficiently similar to warrant further exploration of presence-only models when no reliable absence data (i.e., locations where no conversion occurred) exists. However, due to data-formatting requirements of the presence-only model, it is difficult to accommodate data pertaining to administrative boundaries, which are inherently Boolean. Finally, the output based on the pseudo-absence approach overpredicted urban conversion when compared to the other approaches.     

Future cereal production in China: The interaction of climate change,water availability and socio-economic scenarios

Food production in China is a fundamental component of the national economy and driver of agricultural policy. Sustaining and increasing output to meet growing demand faces significant challenges including climate change, increasing population, agricultural land loss and competing demands for water. Recent warming in China is projected to accelerate by climate models with associated changes in precipitation and frequency of extreme events. How changes in cereal production and water availability due to climate change will interact with other socio-economic pressures is poorly understood. By linking crop and water simulation models and two scenarios of climate (derived from the Regional Climate Model PRECIS) and socio-economic change (downscaled from IPCC SRES A2 and B2) we demonstrate that by the 2040s the absolute effects of climate change are relatively modest. The interactive effects of other drivers are negative, leading to decreases in total production of ?18% (A2) and ?9% (B2). Outcomes are highly dependent on climate scenario, socio-economic development pathway and the effects of CO₂ fertilization on crop yields which may almost totally offset the decreases in production. We find that water availability plays a significant limiting role on future cereal production, due to the combined effects of higher crop water requirements (due to climate change) and increasing demand for non-agricultural use of water (due to socio-economic development). Without adaptation, per capita cereal production falls in all cases, by up to 40% of the current baseline.By simulating the effects of three adaptation scenarios we show that for these future scenarios China is able to maintain per capita cereal production, given reasonable assumptions about policies on land and water management and progress in agricultural technology. Our results are optimistic because PRECIS simulates much wetter conditions than a multi-model average, the CO₂ crop yield response function is highly uncertain and the effects of extreme events on crop growth and water availability are likely to be underestimated.     

Variations in the column-average dry-air mole fractions of CO2 in the vicinity of St. Petersburg

The results obtained from ground-based spectroscopic measurements of column-average dry-air mole fractions of CO₂ in the atmosphere over the St. Petersburg region are given for the period April 2009–October 2011 (～900 measurement runs, 151 measurement days). These results show significant variations in the CO₂ mixing ratio in the atmosphere over the St. Petersburg region. The minimum value of this mixing ratio (373.1 ppm) was observed on April 27, 2011, and its maximum value (420.8 ppm) was observed on February 10, 2010. The typical seasonal behavior of the CO₂ mixing ratio with its summer minimum was observed in 2009. In July 2010 and 2011, the values of the CO₂ mixing ratio increased apparently due to high air temperatures. In 2010 an additional contribution to this increase in the CO₂ mixing ratio could have been made by strong natural fires.