A self-consistent model of the jovian plasma sheet

An axially-symmetric, rapidly-rotating magnetosphere containing low-energy plasma is considered. The resulting plasma sheet is presumed isothermal and thin compared with the radius of the sheet. Solutions of the model equations are found which include the effects of centrifugal, pressure and electro-magnetic forces. These solutions show that the sheet has a constant thickness and that the pressure decays exponentially with distance from the equatorial plane. The calculated curves for the magnetic induction field are compared with the observed field of Jupiter.     

Shoreline variability via empirical orthogonal function analysis: Part II relationship to nearshore conditions

The method of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) or principal component analysis (PCA) was used to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of shoreline data sets from Duck, North Carolina, the Gold Coast, Australia, and the United States Pacific Northwest. In the present work, an attempt is made to relate the individual modes of shoreline variability identified by the EOF analyses to select parameterizations of the nearshore environment. The parameters considered include the wave energy (E), the cross-shore and longshore wave energy fluxes (F_x and F_y), the wave steepness (H_o/L_o), the non-dimensional fall velocity parameter (Ω), the profile parameter (P), the surf-similarity parameter (ζ), and a surfzone Froude number (F_r). Correlation analyses were used to evaluate the linear relationship between each of these parameters and the temporal eigenfunctions, c_k(t), associated with individual modes of shoreline change. Typically, strong correlations were observed between longshore uniform modes and the monthly means of several of the nearshore parameters.     

Temperature calibration of expendable bathythermographs

A non-destructive temperature calibration system for expendable bathythermographs (XBT) is described. A transfer standard technique has been used to estimate XBT thermistor probe-to-probe temperature variability. One-point calibration results suggest that a standard deviation of 0.025°C is typical at 10°C. Additional calibration data from nine XBT thermistors suggest that probe-to-probe temperature variability is largest at 0°C (ca. 0.03°C) and decreases uniformly to a minimum at 30°C (ca. 0.01°C).     

Clear‐sky closure studies of lower tropospheric aerosol and water vapor during ACE‐2 using airborne sunphotometer, airborne in‐situ, space‐borne, and ground‐based measurements

We report on clear‐sky column closure experiments (CLEARCOLUMN) performed in the Canary Islands during the second Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE‐2) in June/July 1997. We present CLEARCOLUMN results obtained by combining airborne sunphotometer and in‐situ (optical particle counter, nephelometer, and absorption photometer) measurements taken aboard the Pelican aircraft, space‐borne NOAA/AVHRR data and ground‐based lidar and sunphotometer measurements. During both days discussed here, vertical profiles flown in cloud‐free air masses revealed 3 distinctly different layers: a marine boundary layer (MBL) with varying pollution levels, an elevated dust layer, and a very clean layer between the MBL and the dust layer. A key result of this study is the achievement of closure between extinction or layer aerosol optical depth (AOD) computed from continuous in‐situ aerosol size‐distributions and composition and those measured with the airborne sunphotometer. In the dust, the agreement in layer AOD (λ=380–1060 nm) is 3–8%. In the MBL there is a tendency for the in‐situ results to be slightly lower than the sunphotometer measurements (10–17% at λ=525 nm), but these differences are within the combined error bars of the measurements and computations.     

Particle simulations of dispersion using observed meandering and turbulence

A Lagrangian stochastic particle model driven by observed winds from a network of 13 sonic anemometers is used to simulate the transport of contaminates due to meandering of the mean wind vector and diffusion by turbulence. The turbulence and the meandering motions are extracted from the observed velocity variances using a variable averaging window width. Such partitioning enables determination of the separate contributions from turbulence and meandering to the total dispersion. The turbulence is described by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo process based on the Langevin equation using the observed turbulence variances. The meandering motions, not the turbulence, are primarily responsible for the 1-h averaged horizontal dispersion as measured by the travel time dependence of the particle position variances. As a result, the 1-h averaged horizontal concentration patterns are often characterized by streaks and multi-modal distributions. Time series of concentration at a fixed location are highly nonstationary even when the 1-h averaged spatial distribution is close to Gaussian. The results show that meandering dominates the travel-time dependence of the horizontal dispersion under all atmospheric conditions: weak and strong winds, and unstable and stable stratification.     

A time-domain method to evaluate the use of moving weights to reduce the roll motion of a ship

A method to evaluate the use of actively controlled moving weights on board ships to reduce roll motion is developed. The weights can simulate in principle anti-roll-tank systems, or they can be considered a possible anti-roll device in their own right. The ship, the moving weight, and the control device are considered components of a single dynamic system. The full eight-degree-of-freedom set of coupled governing equations for the complete dynamic system is derived. And a three-degree-of-freedom non-linear approximation for the roll motion only (MOTSIM) is derived from these eight equations. The reduced set of equations is used to determine the influence of various parameters and to evaluate control strategies. A PID controller is developed to command the position of the weight and a servomechanism model is used to predict its actual position. Then, the moving-weight system is incorporated into LAMP (Large–Amplitude–Motion Program), a computer code that integrates the governing equations of the sea and the motion of the ship interactively and simultaneously and predicts the motion of the ship in the time domain. A comparison of the results from the two simulations shows that there is fairly good correlation between the simple and complex models, but the simple model is a little optimistic in predicting the effectiveness of the moving-weight system. The results predict that the moving-weight system can be an excellent roll-suppressing device when the moving weight is as small as 1% of the displacement of the ship and the maximum distance the weight moves is as small as 15% of the half-beam.     

Near-real-time volcanic ash cloud detection: Experiences from the Alaska Volcano Observatory

Volcanic eruptions produce ash clouds, which are a major hazard to population centers and the aviation community. Within the North Pacific (NOPAC) region, there have been numerous volcanic ash clouds that have reached aviation routes. Others have closed airports and traveled for thousands of kilometers. Being able to detect these ash clouds and then provide an assessment of their potential movement is essential for hazard assessment and mitigation. Remote sensing satellite data, through the reverse absorption or split window method, is used to detect these volcanic ash clouds, with a negative signal produced from spectrally semi-transparent ash clouds. Single channel satellite is used to detect the early eruption spectrally opaque ash clouds. Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion (VATD) models are used to provide a forecast of the ash clouds' future location. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) remote sensing ash detection system automatically analyzes satellite data of volcanic ash clouds, detecting new ash clouds and also providing alerts, both email and text, to those with AVO. However, there are also non-volcanic related features across the NOPAC region that can produce a negative signal. These can complicate alerts and warning of impending ash clouds. Discussions and examples are shown of these non-volcanic features and some analysis is provided on how these features can be discriminated from volcanic ash clouds. Finally, there is discussion on how information of the ash cloud such as location, particle size and concentrations, could be used as VATD model initialization. These model forecasts could then provide an improved assessment of the clouds' future movement.     

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24

A summary and analysis of more than 50 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. All of the predictions were published before solar minimum and represent our efforts to anticipate solar maximum at ever-earlier epochs. The consistency of the predictions within their assigned categories is discussed. Estimates of the significance of the predictions, compared to the climatological average, are presented.