Cross-covariances and localization for EnKF in multiphase flow data assimilation

The ensemble Kalman filter has been successfully applied for data assimilation in very large models, including those in reservoir simulation and weather. Two problems become critical in a standard implementation of the ensemble Kalman filter, however, when the ensemble size is small. The first is that the ensemble approximation to cross-covariances of model and state variables to data can indicate the presence of correlations that are not real. These spurious correlations give rise to model or state variable updates in regions that should not be updated. The second problem is that the number of degrees of freedom in the ensemble is only as large as the size of the ensemble, so the assimilation of large amounts of precise, independent data is impossible. Localization of the Kalman gain is almost universal in the weather community, but applications of localization for the ensemble Kalman filter in porous media flow have been somewhat rare. It has been shown, however, that localization of updates to regions of non-zero sensitivity or regions of non-zero cross-covariance improves the performance of the EnKF when the ensemble size is small. Localization is necessary for assimilation of large amounts of independent data. The problem is to define appropriate localization functions for different types of data and different types of variables. We show that the knowledge of sensitivity alone is not sufficient for determination of the region of localization. The region depends also on the prior covariance for model variables and on the past history of data assimilation. Although the goal is to choose localization functions that are large enough to include the true region of non-zero cross-covariance, for EnKF applications, the choice of localization function needs to balance the harm done by spurious covariance resulting from small ensembles and the harm done by excluding real correlations. In this paper, we focus on the distance-based localization and provide insights for choosing suitable localization functions for data assimilation in multiphase flow problems. In practice, we conclude that it is reasonable to choose localization functions based on well patterns, that localization function should be larger than regions of non-zero sensitivity and should extend beyond a single well pattern.     

A Holocene record of endogenic iron and manganese precipitation and vegetation history in a lake-fen complex in northwestern Minnesota

Little Shingobee Lake and Fen are part of the extensive network of lakes and wetlands in the Shingobee River headwaters of northwestern Minnesota, designed to study the interactions between surface and ground waters. Prior to about 11.2 cal. ka, most of these lakes and wetlands were interconnected to form glacial Lake Willobee, which apparently formed when a debris flow dammed the Shingobee River. Between 11.2 and 8.5 cal. ka, the level of Lake Willobee fell as a result of breaching of the dam, transforming the deep lake into the existing lakes and wetlands. Analyses of a 9-m core from Little Shingobee Lake (LSL-B), and lacustrine sediments under 3.3 m of peat in a 17-m core from Little Shingobee Fen (LSF-10), show that the dominant components are allogenic clastic material, and endogenic CaCO₃ and organic matter. In both cores almost all of the iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) are incorporated in endogenic minerals, presumed to be X-ray amorphous oxyhydroxide minerals, that occur in significant quantities throughout the cores; almost no Fe and Mn are contributed from detrital aluminosilicate minerals. This suggests that, for most of the Holocene, the allogenic watershed contributions to lake chemistry were minor compared to the dissolved mineral load. In addition, prior to 3.5 cal. ka, pollen zone boundaries coincide with large changes in lake-sediment mineralogy, indicating that both landscape and climate processes were linked to early- and mid-Holocene lake chemistry. The pollen time series, with sequential domination by spruce, pine, sagebrush-oak, birch-oak and, finally, white pine is typical of the region and reflects the changing location of the prairie-forest transition zone over time. These changes in vegetation had some profound effects on the geochemistry of the lake waters.     

Tuna schools/aggregations in surface longline data 1993–98

Exploratory data analysis of a high‐resolution (hook‐by‐hook), 6‐year time series (1993–98) of observed longline catch data for tunas was used to investigate fine‐scale spatial patterns along individual sets that may be indicative of social behaviour (i.e., schooling) and/or the response of individual fish to favourable extrinsic conditions (i.e., aggregation). Methods of spatial data analysis (i.e., nearest neighbour analysis) that have previously been applied in various other sciences (e.g., forestry and astronomy) were used. Results indicate strong clustering of individual tunas at characteristic scales within the set. Mean Nearest Neighbour Distances (NNDs) were between 100 and 200 m, compared with NNDs of 200–700 m predicted by a heterogeneous Poisson process on the same spatial domain. The results suggest that these adult tunas were either schooling or aggregating at the time of capture; this may therefore be related either to social behaviour or to sub‐mesoscale oceanographic features. An aggregation index was derived from the NNDs, giving a classification method that may be used for similar data and the development of empirical models attempting to relate patterns in fish catch distributions to environmental variables. The success of such models will ultimately depend on elucidating the ecological processes reflected in oceanographic features at biologically meaningful spatial scales.     

Decadal temperature changes in the Tasman Sea

Ocean temperature changes between 1991 and 2005 in the eastern Tasman Sea were analysed. This area was chosen because of a combination of data availability, low mesoscale variability and because of its importance in determining the climate of the downwind New Zealand landmass. A large warming extending to the full depth of the water column (c. 800 m) was found to have occurred between 1996 and 2002. This warming was seen in measurements by expendable bathythermographs and also in satellite sea surface temperature and sea surface height products, and has a clear impact on New Zealand's terrestrial temperature. The nature of the warming is discussed, together with likely forcing mechanisms. No local forcing mechanisms are consistent with the observed warming, leading to the conclusion that the signal seen in the Tasman Sea is part of a larger South Pacific‐wide phenomenon.     

Validation of the ozone + tetramethylethylene reaction using an atmospheric pressure flow reactor/ion trap mass spectrometer

This paper demonstrates the performance of a new design of atmospheric pressure flow-tube reactor coupled with an ion trap mass spectrometer. The reactor is designed for studying gas-phase reactions with reaction times in the range from 0.2 to 2 s. The system provides a simple, fast and robust method for introducing the reactant mixtures and for identifying the products of gas-phase reactions. As a practical example of application, we used the flow reactor to study the reaction of O₃ with 2,3-dimethyl-2-butene. Good agreement was obtained between the flow tube results and previously reported studies for the identification of major products and measurement of their yields. This design has the potential to be used to study the atmospheric ozonolysis reactions of unsaturated species at realistic pressures and temperatures.     

Hard X-ray observations of PSR J1833−1034 and its associated pulsar wind nebula

PSR J1833−1034 and its associated pulsar wind nebula (PWN) have been investigated in depth through X-ray observations ranging from 0.1 to 200 keV. The low-energy X-ray data from Chandra reveal a complex morphology that is characterized by a bright central plerion, no thermal shell and an extended diffuse halo. The spectral emission from the central plerion softens with radial distance from the pulsar, with the spectral index ranging from  Γ= 1.61  in the central region to  Γ= 2.36  at the edge of the PWN. At higher energy, INTEGRAL detected the source in the 17–200 keV range. The data analysis clearly shows that the main contribution to the spectral emission in the hard X-ray energy range is originated from the PWN, while the pulsar is dominant above 200 keV. Recent High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS) observations in the high-energy gamma-ray domain show that PSR J1833−1034 is a bright TeV emitter, with a flux corresponding to ∼2 per cent of the Crab in 1–10 TeV range. In addition, the spectral shape in the TeV energy region matches well with that in the hard X-rays observed by INTEGRAL . Based on these findings, we conclude that the emission from the pulsar and its associated PWN can be described in a scenario where hard X-rays are produced through synchrotron light of electrons with Lorentz factor  γ∼ 10⁹  in a magnetic field of ∼10 μG. In this hypothesis, the TeV emission is due to inverse-Compton interaction of the cooled electrons off the cosmic microwave background photons. Search for PSR J1833−1034 X-ray pulsed emission, via RXTE and Swift X-ray observations, resulted in an upper limit that is about 50 per cent.     

Acceleration of particles by electron plasma waves in a moderate magnetic field

A general scheme is established to examine any magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) configuration for its acceleration potential including the effects of various types of plasma waves. The analysis is restricted to plasma waves in a magnetic field with electron cyclotron frequency less than, but comparable to, the electron plasma frequency (moderate field). The general role of electron plasma waves is examined in this paper independent of a specific MHD configuration or generating mechanism in the weak turbulence limit. The evolution of arbitrary wave spectra in a non-relativistic plasma is examined, and it is shown that the nonlinear, process of induced scattering on the polarization clouds of ions leads to the collapse of the waves to an almost one-dimensional spectrum directed along the magnetic field. The subsequent acceleration of non-relativistic and relativistic particles is considered. It is shown for non-relativistic particles that when the wave distribution has a negative slope the acceleration is retarded for lower velocities and enhanced for higher velocities compared to acceleration by an isotropic distribution of electron plasma waves in a magnetic field. This change in behavior is expected to affect the development of wave spectra and the subsequent acceleration spectrum.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Radioactivity induced background noise in space-borne astronomical gamma-ray telescopes employing inorganic scintillation spectrometers

Based on monoenergetic proton beam tests of both NaI and CsI, a method for estimating the spallation background, due to the cosmic ray protons and trapped protons, has been developed. Comparisons between the calculated background noise and those measured by telescopes on board satellites are made. Good agreements of these comparisons demonstrate that the approach is capable of providing realistic estimates for specific space borne gamma-ray telescopes in well defined orbits.     

The saturation of the cosmic diffuse γ-ray background by the Seyfert galaxy component

The nature of the diffuse cosmic background in the low -ray energy range has been widely discussed but not definitively solved. Unresolved active galaxies have become good candidates for its origin ever since they have been identified as -ray emitting objects. In particular, the summed contribution of Seyfert galaxies is expected to be dominant to such an extent that a straight forward calculation, based on their volume emissivity, predicts a considerable excess above the observed level of the isotropic background flux. In this letter we explore different ways to reconcile the observational data on these active galactic nuclei with the measured intensity of the cosmic diffuse -radiation.