Forecasting Wave Amplitudes after the Arrival of a Tsunami

The destructive Pacific Ocean tsunami generated off the east coast of Honshu, Japan, on 11 March 2011 prompted the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) to issue a tsunami warning and advisory for the coastal regions of Alaska, British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California. Estimating the length of time the warning or advisory would remain in effect proved difficult. To address this problem, the WCATWC developed a technique to estimate the amplitude decay of a tsunami recorded at tide stations within the Warning Center’s Area of Responsibly (AOR). At many sites along the West Coast of North America, the tsunami wave amplitudes will decay exponentially following the arrival of the maximum wave (Mofjeld et al., Nat Hazards 22:71–89, 2000). To estimate the time it will take before wave amplitudes drop to safe levels, the real-time tide gauge data are filtered to remove the effects of tidal variations. The analytic envelope is computed and a 2 h sequence of amplitude values following the tsunami peak is used to obtain a least squares fit to an exponential function. This yields a decay curve which is then combined with an average West Coast decay function to provide an initial tsunami amplitude-duration forecast. This information may then be provided to emergency managers to assist with response planning.     

Assessment of long-term variation in displacement for a GPS site adjacent to a transition zone between collision and subduction

A transition and subduction zone adjacent to the Ryukyu Arc, Ryukyu Trench, and Okinawa Trough, extends between southern Japan and northeastern Taiwan. It is generated during the northwestward subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate, which lies the Eurasian Plate along the Ryukyu Trench. The movement of the Philippine Sea Plate is hindered at the northeastern corner of Taiwan, which causes complicated structure of the Philippine Sea Plate at the western end of the Ryukyu subduction zone. Development of the active subduction and transition boundary near the western Ryukyu Arc is evaluated statistically by using displacements derived from GPS site data. The statistical model shows that the absolute displacement derived from GPS measurements of nearly 8 years indicates a maximum spatial variation of 0.625 m. Three trends are observed for such long-term progress, and use of linear regression also reveals quite good consistency between the data and statistic models. Such rate is also elevated following the trend development. Southeastern and nearly horizontal movement is suggested to the main development of for the site movements, it is likely related to the tensional activity adjacent to this boundary.     

Towards an operational use of space imagery for oil pollution monitoring in the Mediterranean basin: a demonstration in the Adriatic Sea

Studies of operational pollution carried out by European commission - Joint Research Centre in the Mediterranean Sea for the years 1999-2004 are briefly introduced. The specific analysis of the Adriatic Sea for the same period demonstrates that this area has been characterized by a relevant number of illegal discharges from ships. After setting the historical background of the project AESOP (aerial and satellite surveillance of operational pollution in the Adriatic Sea), the content, partners and aim of the project are presented. Finally, the results of the first phase of the AESOP project are presented. The results seem very encouraging. For the first time in the Adriatic, real time detection of oil spills in satellite images and an immediate verification by the Coast Guard has been undertaken. An exploratory activity has also been carried out in collaboration with the University of Ljubljana to use automatic information system (AIS) to identify the ships detected in the satellite images.     

Variability in invasion risk for ballast water exchange on the Scotian Shelf of eastern Canada

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for dispersion of ballast water organisms in shelf seas is applied to the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. The ballast water exchange process is simulated as the dispersion of tracer released into the surface layer of an ocean circulation model of the region. Circulation model variability is driven by wind stress from a cyclical year of forcing representing climatological storminess. Dispersion metrics related to invasion risk are developed and incorporated into a risk equation that computes the relative overall risk of invasion for ballast water exchange segments along vessel tracks crossing the shelf. Three hundred and sixty dispersion simulations are done for each segment of each of six tracks. Because the flow fields represent climatological variability in shelf circulation, the application of the risk assessment model captures the expected variability in invasion risk. Model results indicate that more than an order of magnitude variation in risk can exist along a given vessel track, and that tracks with offshelf segments provide a lower risk option compared to onshelf tracks. The model provides quantitative guidance to regulators regarding what is an acceptable trip diversion and can aid in numerous other management decisions.     

New K–Ar ages for calculating end-of-shield extrusion rates at West Maui volcano,Hawaiian island chain

Thirty-seven new K–Ar ages from West Maui volcano, Hawai‘i, are used to define the waning stages of shield growth and a brief episode of postshield volcanism. All but two samples from shield-stage strata have reversed polarity magnetization, so conceivably the exposed shield is not much older than the Olduvai Normal-Polarity subchron, or about 1.8 Ma. The oldest ages obtained are in the range 1.9–2.1 Ma but have large analytical error. Shield volcanism ended about 1.35 Ma, and postshield volcanism followed soon thereafter, persisting until about 1.2 Ma. Exposed shield-stage strata were emplaced at a rate of about 0.001 km³ per year, a rate smaller than historic Hawaiian magmatic rates by a factor of 100. Stratigraphic accumulation rates are similar to those measured previously at Wai‘anae volcano (O‘ahu) or the upper part of the Mauna Kea shield sequence (Hilo drill core, Hawai‘i). These rates diminish sharply during the final 0.3–0.5 m.y. of the shield stage. Hawaiian shield volcanoes begin waning well before their last 0.5 m.y. of life, then end quickly, geologically speaking, if West Maui is representative.     

Development of a benthic index to assess sediment quality in the Tampa Bay Estuary

The identification, remedial treatment, and monitoring of contaminated sediments are among the priorities for managers of the Tampa Bay Estuary. Tampa Bay, as an urbanized estuary, is subject to the input of watershed sources of chemical contaminants, including metals, pesticides, and organic chemicals. Although the use of biological indicators and their incorporation into multi-metric indices is not new, the refinement and applications of such techniques for determining environmental condition still require further development and exploration. We present a single Tampa Bay Benthic Index (TBBI) that was developed specifically for Tampa Bay. Stepwise discriminant analysis was applied to a comprehensive list of potential benthic metrics. Results from the stepwise procedure identified the metrics that best discriminated between "healthy" and "degraded" conditions, as defined by sediment contaminant effect levels and dissolved oxygen. Discriminant analysis was then applied to the resultant three variables to determine the linear combination for the index.     

Temporal variations in bedload transport rates associated with the migration of bedforms

Temporal variations in bedload transport rates that occur at a variety of timescales, even under steady flow conditions, are accepted as an inherent component of the bedload transport process. Rarely, however, has the cause of such variations been explained clearly. We consider three data sets, obtained from laboratory experiments, that refer to measurements of bedload transport made with continuously recording bedload traps. Each data set is characterized by a predominant low-frequency oscillation, on which additional higher-frequency oscillations generally are superimposed. The period of these oscillations, as isolated through the use of spectral analysts, ranged between 0·47 and 168 minutes, and was associated unequivocally with the migration of bedforms such as ripples, dunes, and bars. The extent to which such oscillatory behaviour may be recognized in a data set depends on the duration of sampling and the length of the sampling time, with respect to the period of a given bedform. Several theoretical probability distribution functions have been developed to describe the frequency distributions of (relative) bedload transport rates that are associated with the migration of bedforms (Einstein, 1937b; Hamamori, 1962; Carey and Hubbell, 1986). These distribution functions were derived without reference to a sampling interval. We present a modification of Hamamori's (1962) probability distribution function, generated by Monte Carlo simulation, which permits one to specify the sampling interval, in relation to the length of a bedform. Comparisons between the simulated and observed frequency distributions, that were undertaken on the basis of the data described herein, are good (significant at the 90 per cent confidence level). Finally, the implications that temporal variability, which is associated with the migration of bedforms, have for the accurate determination of bedload transport rates are considered.     

Role of time variant and invariant terms on soil moisture spatio-temporal variability in a subhumid coastal wetland

The knowledge of soil moisture spatio-temporal variability is highly relevant for water resources management. This paper reports an analysis of the spatial–temporal variability of soil moisture data for a small to medium-scale soil-sensors network in a coastal wetland of southwestern Spain. Measurements were taken from five sites located in the Doñana National Park over the time-period of one hydrological year from September 2017 to September 2018. The total area of the soil-sensors network shows an extension about 25 × 3 km. Soil moisture data was separated into time invariant (the temporal mean of the whole period at each site) and time-variant terms (the deviations of soil moisture from the mean, or anomalies). The time-invariant component was generally the main contributor to the total spatial variance of soil moisture and it was mostly controlled by the groundwater levels in the area. Nevertheless, the time variant terms have a huge effect on soil moisture variability in very dry states. Characteristic convex time-dependent patterns for this field site were found between spatially averaged soil moisture and its variability. This information could be used for the up and downscaling of soil moisture from satellite data. Those patterns of relation between spatial mean and variability of soil moisture were only affected by heavy rainfalls giving rise to hysteretic behaviour. This study shows that even though groundwater level is a time-variant variable, it significantly affects soil moisture's time-variant but also time-invariant terms due to the different average groundwater level depths at the different sites.     

Exposed cross-sections through the continental crust: implications for crustal structure,petrology, and evolution

The continental crust is exposed in cross-section at numerous sites on the earth's surface. These exposures, which appear to have formed by obduction along great faults during continental collision, may be recognized by exposures of deep crustal rocks exhibiting asymmetric patterns of metamorphic grade and age across the faults and by distinctive Bouguer anomaly patterns reflecting dipping basement structure and an anomalously deep mantle. From an examination of five complexes which meet these criteria, it is concluded that the most prominent layering in the crust is not compositional but metamorphic. The lower crust consists of granulite facies rocks of mafic to intermediate composition while the intermediate and shallow levels consist predominantly of amphibolite facies gneisses and greenschist facies supracrustal rocks, respectively. Post-metamorphic granitic intrusions are common at intermediate to shallow levels. Position of discontinuities in refraction velocity, where present, commonly correspond to changes in composition or metamorphic grade with depth. The continental crust is characterized by lateral and vertical heterogeneities of varying scale which are the apparent cause of the complex seismic reflections recorded by COCORP. Field observations, coupled with geochemical data, indicate a complex evolution of the lower crust which can include anatexis, multiple deformation, polymetamorphism and reworking of older crustal material. The complexity of the crust is thus the result of continuous evolution by recycling and metamorphism through time in a variety of tectonic environments.