A stepwise method for determining the number of component distributions in a mixture

This paper considers the problem of estimatingm, the number of components in a finite mixture of distributions from a parametric family. A step-up procedure using the bootstrap method is proposed. Some properties of the procedure are illustrated with simulation studies. An example of the method, applied to orientation of beach clasts, is given.     

Low-cost volcano surveillance from space: case studies from Etna, Krafla, Cerro Negro, Fogo, Lascar and Erebus

 Satellite data offer a means of supplementing ground-based monitoring during volcanic eruptions, especially at times or locations where ground-based monitoring is difficult. Being directly and freely available several times a day, data from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) offers great potential for near real-time monitoring of all volcanoes across large (3000×3000 km) areas. Herein we describe techniques to detect and locate activity; estimate lava area, thermal flux, effusion rates and cumulative volume; and distinguish types of activity. Application is demonstrated using data for active lavas at Krafla, Etna, Fogo, Cerro Negro and Erebus; a pyroclastic flow at Lascar; and open vent systems at Etna and Stromboli. Automated near real-time analysis of AVHRR data could be achieved at existing, or cheap to install, receiving stations, offering a supplement to conventional monitoring methods. Received: 21 January 1997 / Accepted: 3 April 1997     

Simulations of deep pencil-beam redshift surveys

We create mock pencil-beam redshift surveys from very large cosmological N -body simulations of two cold dark matter (CDM) cosmogonies, an Einstein–de Sitter model ( τ CDM) and a flat model with Ω₀=0.3 and a cosmological constant (ΛCDM). We use these to assess the significance of the apparent periodicity discovered by Broadhurst et al. Simulation particles are tagged as 'galaxies' so as to reproduce observed present-day correlations. They are then identified along the past light-cones of hypothetical observers to create mock catalogues with the geometry and the distance distribution of the Broadhurst et al. data. We produce 1936 (2625) quasi-independent catalogues from our τ CDM (ΛCDM) simulation. A couple of large clumps in a catalogue can produce a high peak at low wavenumbers in the corresponding one-dimensional power spectrum, without any apparent large-scale periodicity in the original redshift histogram. Although the simulated redshift histograms frequently display regularly spaced clumps, the spacing of these clumps varies between catalogues and there is no 'preferred' period over our many realizations. We find only a 0.72 (0.49) per cent chance that the highest peak in the power spectrum of a τ CDM (ΛCDM) catalogue has a peak-to-noise ratio higher than that in the Broadhurst et al. data. None of the simulated catalogues with such high peaks shows coherently spaced clumps with a significance as high as that of the real data. We conclude that in CDM universes, the regularity on a scale of ∼130  h ⁻¹ Mpc observed by Broadhurst et al. has a priori probability well below 10⁻³.     

A comparative study of the zooplankton in two adjacent embayments,Port Phillip and Westernport Bays,Australia

We report on a year's study of spatial and seasonal patterns of zooplankton abundance in Port Phillip and Westernport Bays, July 1982 to August 1983. These two bays, closely adjacent on the southern coast of Victoria, Australia, differ in several respects: Port Phillip is a nearly landlocked bay with a broad basin, while Westernport is an open tidal embayment with extensive mud and seagrass banks. Both bays have a resident zooplankton fauna distinct from that of Bass Strait. Although these resident communities have many species in common, patterns of abundance and dominance are quite different. We found that the holoplankton of Port Phillip was about half copepods, mostly Paracalanus indicus, with 23% Caldocera and 21% larvaceans. Westernport Bay zooplankton was dominated by Acartia tranteri, with no resident cladoceran fauna. Bass Strait species were more often found in Westernport than in Port Phillip Bay, but the resident community of Port Phillip Bay was more similar to that of Bass Strait than to that of Westernport.Although this study was undertaken in an exceptionally dry year, the available historical data show that the overall patterns found in 1982–1983 are typical for these bays. The differences in community composition probably relate to differences in depth profile, predator abundance, and suspended matter between the bays.     

Spectral variations of DY Cen

Two high resolution spectra of the hot RCrB star DY Cen in the red region are compared. The photospheric absorption lines show a radial velocity variation of 12 kms-1 between 1989 July and 1992 May. Emission components to some CII lines present in 1989 are almost entirely absent in 1992. Nebular forbidden lines of [OI], [NII] and [SII] appear unchanged from 1989 to 1992     

Predicted interplanetary distribution of Lyman-σ intensity and polarization

Our current understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of interplan etary neutral hydrogen is currently limited to a comparison of Lyman-σ photometric data with predictions of the solar backscattered radiation using theoretical models. In this paper, how the uncertainties in current model calculations could be reduced through the future use of polarization measurements made from interplanetary spacecraft is investigated. In particular, inquiry into how a mapping of the degree of linear polarization made from a spacecraft at various locations in the Solar System can improve knowledge of the interstellar wind parameters, number density, temperature, and velocity, is made. A polarization measurement can, in principle, be made with very high precision. In this regard, being a relative quantity, a polarization measurement can be made independent of instrumental calibration and long-term sensitivity degredation. Furthermore, the sky distribution of both intensity and polarization has been calculated using a variety of models for the neutral hydrogen. It is found that the polarization distribution over the sky is quite different from that of the intensity distribution. It is also showed that the maximum degree of polarization of the Laymam-σ line increases with heliocentric distance of the spacecraft, varying from 0 up to ～ 18% at 20 AU.     

Ultra-Deep Optical Spectroscopy with PMAS. Using the Nod-and-Shuffle Technique

PMAS, the Potsdam Multi-Aperture Spectrophotometer, is a new integral field spectrograph in the optical, which is optimized for good transmission and high image quality from 350 nm to 1 μm. We present our plan to implement a CCD charge-shuffle mode to allow for beam switching with a very high degree of sky subtraction accuracy for faint object 3-D spectroscopy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.