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241.
242.
Inclement weather creates a chronic hazard for Canadian travellers. Past studies indicate that road collision rates increase during precipitation, although the magnitude of theincrease varies from study to study, partly as a result of variations in weather and driving conditions,but also because of differences in methods. The goal of the current study is to improve ourunderstanding of the links between weather and travel risk in mid-sized Canadian cities by using astandardized method for analyzing data from six cities with different climates: Halifax-Dartmouth,Ottawa, Québec, Hamilton, Waterloo Region, and Regina. The study has four interrelated objectives: (1) Toconduct a sensitivity analysis to determine the extent to which risk estimates vary depending onthe criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions; (2) To compare therelative risk of collision and injury during precipitation relative to `normal' conditions; (3) Todetermine the extent to which weather-related risks vary fordifferent Canadian cities; and (4) To explore any differences in collision characteristics between events and controls, especially as theyvary from city to city. Results are based on a matched-pair analysis, using six-hour time blocks over afour-year period, 1995 to 1998. Results indicate only modest sensitivity to the criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions. On average, precipitation is associated with a 75 percentincrease in traffic collisions and a 45 percent increase in related injuries, as compared to `normal'seasonal conditions, but risk levels vary depending on the characteristics of the weather event.Both sensitivity to specific weather conditions and weather-related accident profiles vary from city tocity in ways that are not easily explained. 相似文献
243.
Smoothing and Change Point Detection for Gamma Ray Count Data 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Gamma ray detectors are used to measure the natural radioactivity of rocks. For a number of boreholes drilled at a site the gamma ray detector is lowered into each borehole and counts of gamma ray emissions at different depths are recorded as the instrument is gradually raised to ground level. The profile of gamma counts can be informative about the geology at each location. The raw count data are highly variable, and in this paper we describe the use of adaptive smoothing techniques and change point models in order to identify changes in the geology based on the gamma logs. We formulate all our models for the data in the framework of the class of generalized linear models, and describe computational methods for Bayesian inference and model selection for generalized linear models that improve on existing techniques. Application is made to gamma ray data from the Castelreagh Waste Management Centre which served as a hazardous waste disposal facility for the Sydney region between March 1974 and August 1998. Understanding the geological structure of this site is important for further modelling the transport of pollutants beneath the waste disposal area. 相似文献
244.
Drill cores through modern coral reefs commonly show a time lag in reef initiation followed by a phase of rapid accretion to sea level from submerged foundations – the so-called ‘catch-up response’. But because of the difficulty of drilling in these environments, core distribution is usually restricted to accessible areas that may not fully represent reef history, especially if the reef initiated in patches or developed with a prograde or retrograde geometry. As a consequence, core data have the potential to give a misleading impression of reef development, particularly with respect to the timing of initiation and response to sea-level rise. Here, we use computer models to simulate keep-up reef development and, from them, quantify variations in the timing of reef initiation and accretion rate using mock cores taken through the completed simulations. The results demonstrate that cores consistently underestimate the timing of reef initiation and overestimate the reef accretion rate so that, statistically, a core through a keep-up reef will most likely produce a catch-up pattern – an initiation lag followed by a phase of rapid accretion to sea level. This implies that catch-up signatures may be an artefact of coring and that keep-up reefs are significantly more common than previous core studies claim. 相似文献
245.
Chris Klootwijk John Giddings Chris Pigram Charles Loxton Hugh Davies Rick Rogerson David Falvey 《Tectonophysics》2003,362(1-4):239-272
Oblique convergence since the Early Cenozoic between the northward-moving Australian plate, westward-moving Pacific plate and almost stationary Eurasian plate has created a world-ranking tectonic zone in the eastern Indonesia–New Guinea–Southwest Pacific region (Tonga–Sulawesi megashear) that is notorious for its complex mix of tectonic styles and terrane juxtapositions. Unlike an ancient analog—the Mesozoic–Cenozoic Cordillera of North America—palaeomagnetic constraints on terrane motions in the zone are few. To improve the framework of quantitative control on such motions and therefore our understanding of the development of the zone, results of a palaeomagnetic study in the Highlands region of Papua New Guinea (PNG), in the southern part of the New Guinea Orogen, are reported. The study yields new insights into terrane tectonics along the Australian craton's active northern margin and confirms the complexity of block rotations to be expected at the local scale in tectonically intricate zones. The study is based on more than 500 samples (21 localities) collected from an interior and an exterior zone of New Guinea's central cordillera. The two zones are separated by the Tahin and Stolle–Lagaip–Kaugel Fault zones and collectively represent the para-autochthonous northern margin of the Australian craton. Samples from the interior zone, which in the study area comprises a cratonic spur of uncertain—probably displaced—origin, come from Triassic to Miocene sediments and subordinate volcanics of the Kubor Anticline, Jimi Terrane, and Yaveufa Syncline (16 localities) in the central and eastern Highlands. Samples from the exterior zone, which represent a basement-involved, Pliocene foreland fold-and-thrust belt, come from Middle Eocene to Middle Miocene carbonates and clastics (five localities) in the southern Highlands of the Papuan Fold Belt. Results permit us to constrain the tectonic evolution of the two zones palaeomagnetically. Using mainly thermal demagnetization techniques, three main magnetic components have been identified in the collection: (1) a recent field overprint of both normal and reverse polarity; (2) a pervasive overprint of mainly normal polarity that originated during extensive Middle to Late Miocene intrusive activity in the central cordillera; and (3) a primary component which has been identified in only 7 of the 21 localities (5 of 11 stratigraphic units represented in the collection). All components show patterns of rotation that are consistent within the zones, but differ between them. In the interior zone (central and eastern Highlands), large-scale counterclockwise rotations of between 30°+ and 100°+ have been established throughout the Kubor Anticline and Jimi Terrane, with some clockwise rotation present in the southern part of the Yaveufa Syncline. In contrast, in the Mendi area of the exterior zone (southern Highlands), clockwise rotations of between 30°+ and 50°+ can be recognized. These contrasting rotation patterns across the Tahin and Stolle–Lagaip–Kaugel Fault zones indicate decoupling of the two tectonic zones, probably along basement-involved faults. The clockwise rotations in the southern Highlands of the Papuan Fold Belt are to be expected from its structural grain, and are probably governed by regional basement faults and transverse lineaments. In contrast, the pattern of counterclockwise rotations in the Kubor Anticline–Jimi Terrane cratonic spur of the central and eastern Highlands was unexpected. The pattern is interpreted to result from non-rigid rotation of continental terranes as they were transported westward across the northeastern margin of the Australian craton. This margin became reorganised after the Middle Miocene, when the steadily northward-advancing Australian craton impinged into the westward-moving Pacific plate/buffer-plate system. Transpressional reorganisation under the influence of the sinistral Tonga–Sulawesi megashear became enhanced with Mio-Pliocene docking, and subsequent southward overthrusting, of the Finisterre Terrane onto the northeastern margin of the Australian craton. 相似文献
246.
Philip Barker David Williamson Franoise Gasse Elisabeth Gibert 《Quaternary Research》2003,60(3):368-376
The interactions between climatic and volcanic forcing on diatom communities contained in a 50,000-year sedimentary sequence from Lake Massoko, Tanzania, were examined. At the century scale, 19 discrete tephra inputs to the lake isolated the sedimentary nutrient supply and shifted the diatom communities to those tolerant of low phosphorus levels, whereas at the millennial scale, diatom-inferred shifts in precipitation–evaporation based on conductivity optima and diatom life-form ratios were broadly similar to lake-level reconstructions from Lake Rukwa, Lake Malawi, and others in the region. Some fluctuations of Lake Massoko are consistent with the precession-driven changes in insolation, but the major climate shifts do not relate directly to orbital forcing of summer insolation south of the equator and show more consistency with records from the equatorial and northern tropics that receive rainfall from the passing of the intertropical convergence zone. Sea surface temperatures are strongly correlated to multimillennial-scale climate patterns over this region of Africa. 相似文献
247.
Yehouda Enzel Revital Bookman David Sharon Haim Gvirtzman Uri Dayan Baruch Ziv Mordechai Stein 《Quaternary Research》2003,60(3):263-273
The Dead Sea is a terminal lake of one of the largest hydrological systems in the Levant and may thus be viewed as a large rain gauge for the region. Variations of its level are indicative of the climate variations in the region. Here, we present the decadal- to centennial-resolution Holocene lake-level curve of the Dead Sea. Then we determine the regional hydroclimatology that affected level variations. To achieve this goal we compare modern natural lake-level variations and instrumental rainfall records and quantify the hydrology relative to lake-level rise, fall, or stability. To quantify that relationship under natural conditions, rainfall data pre-dating the artificial Dead Sea level drop since the 1960s are used. In this respect, Jerusalem station offers the longest uninterrupted pre-1960s rainfall record and Jerusalem rains serve as an adequate proxy for the Dead Sea headwaters rainfall. Principal component analysis indicates that temporal variations of annual precipitation in all stations in Israel north of the current 200 mm yr−1 average isohyet during 1940–1990 are largely synchronous and in phase (70% of the total variance explained by PC1). This station also represents well northern Jordan and the area all the way to Beirut, Lebanon, especially during extreme drought and wet spells. We (a) determine the modern, and propose the past regional hydrology and Eastern Mediterranean (EM) climatology that affected the severity and length of droughts/wet spells associated with multiyear episodes of Dead Sea level falls/rises and (b) determine that EM cyclone tracks were different in average number and latitude in wet and dry years in Jerusalem. The mean composite sea level pressure and 500-mb height anomalies indicate that the potential causes for wet and dry episodes span the entire EM and are rooted in the larger-scale northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation. We also identified remarkably close association (within radiocarbon resolution) between climatic changes in the Levant, reflected by level changes, and culture shifts in this region. 相似文献
248.
We performed instrumental neutron activation analysis on a large suite of antarctic and nonantarctic eucrites, including unbrecciated, brecciated, and polymict eucrites and cumulate and noncumulate eucrites. We evaluate the use of Hf and Ta, two highly incompatible elements, as sensitive indicators of partial melting or fractional crystallization processes. Comparison with rare earth element (REE) data from nonantarctic and antarctic eucrites shows that Hf and Ta are unaffected by the terrestrial alteration that has modified the REE contents and patterns of some antarctic eucrites. The major host phases for Hf and Ta—zircon, baddeleyite, ilmenite, and titanite—are much less susceptible to terrestrial alteration than the phosphate hosts of REEs. The host phases for Hf and Ta are minor or trace phases, so sample heterogeneity is a serious concern for obtaining representative compositions. The trace lithophile and siderophile element contents of noncumulate eucrites do not allow for a single, simple model for the petrogenesis of the howardite-eucrite-diogenite suite. Fractional crystallization models cannot reproduce the compositional relationship between eucrites of the main group-Nuevo Laredo trend and those of the Stannern trend. Equilibrium crystallization models cannot explain the trace element diversity observed among diogenites. Partial melting models cannot explain the W variations among eucrites, unless source regions had different metal contents. We suggest that slight variations in oxygen fugacity of eucrite source regions during partial melting can explain the W variations without requiring different metal contents. This hypothesis may fail to account for eucrite Co contents, however. 相似文献
249.
Field investigations at Dugway Proving Ground in western Utah have produced new data on the chronology and human occupation of late Pleistocene and early Holocene lakes, rivers, and wetlands in the Lake Bonneville basin. We have classified paleo-river channels of these ages as “gravel channels” and “sand channels.” Gravel channels are straight to curved, digitate, and have abrupt bulbous ends. They are composed of fine gravel and coarse sand, and are topographically inverted (i.e., they stand higher than the surrounding mudflats). Sand channels are younger and sand filled, with well-developed meander-scroll morphology that is truncated by deflated mudflat surfaces. Gravel channels were formed by a river that originated as overflow from the Sevier basin along the Old River Bed during the late regressive phases of Lake Bonneville (after 12,500 and prior to 11,000 14C yr B.P.). Dated samples from sand channels and associated fluvial overbank and wetland deposits range in age from 11,000 to 8800 14C yr B.P., and are probably related to continued Sevier-basin overflow and to groundwater discharge. Paleoarchaic foragers occupied numerous sites on gravel-channel landforms and adjacent to sand channels in the extensive early Holocene wetland habitats. Reworking of tools and limited toolstone diversity is consistent with theoretical models suggesting Paleoarchaic foragers in the Old River Bed delta were less mobile than elsewhere in the Great Basin. 相似文献
250.
Relative sea level (RSL) data derived from isolation basins at Innaarsuit, a site on the south shores of the large marine embayment of Disko Bugt, West Greenland, record rapid RSL fall from the marine limit (ca. 108 m) at 10,300-9900 cal yr B.P. to reach the present sea level at 3500 cal yr B.P. Since 2000 cal yr B.P., RSL rose ca. 3 m to the present. When compared with data from elsewhere in Disko Bugt, our results suggest that the embayment was deglaciated later and more quickly than previously thought, at or slightly before 10,300 cal yr B.P. The northern part of Disko Bugt experienced less rebound (ca. 10 m at 6000 cal yr B.P.) compared with areas to the south. Submergence during the late Holocene supports a model of crustal down-warping as a result of renewed ice-sheet growth during the neoglacial. There is little evidence for west to east differences in crustal rebound across the southern shores of Disko Bugt. 相似文献