Forecasting Wave Amplitudes after the Arrival of a Tsunami

The destructive Pacific Ocean tsunami generated off the east coast of Honshu, Japan, on 11 March 2011 prompted the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) to issue a tsunami warning and advisory for the coastal regions of Alaska, British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California. Estimating the length of time the warning or advisory would remain in effect proved difficult. To address this problem, the WCATWC developed a technique to estimate the amplitude decay of a tsunami recorded at tide stations within the Warning Center’s Area of Responsibly (AOR). At many sites along the West Coast of North America, the tsunami wave amplitudes will decay exponentially following the arrival of the maximum wave (Mofjeld et al., Nat Hazards 22:71–89, 2000). To estimate the time it will take before wave amplitudes drop to safe levels, the real-time tide gauge data are filtered to remove the effects of tidal variations. The analytic envelope is computed and a 2 h sequence of amplitude values following the tsunami peak is used to obtain a least squares fit to an exponential function. This yields a decay curve which is then combined with an average West Coast decay function to provide an initial tsunami amplitude-duration forecast. This information may then be provided to emergency managers to assist with response planning.     

The Amazon river breeze and the local boundary layer: I. Observations

Observations of the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer over the Amazon rain forest, made at sites close to the confluence of the Solimões and Negro rivers (approximately at 3°S, 60°W) near Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil, show the existence of a diurnal rotation of the wind near the surface and the frequent presence of low-level nocturnal wind maxima. These circulations are shown to be plausibly explained as elements of a river and land breeze circulation induced by the thermal contrast between the rivers and the adjacent forest.     

The spectacular fossils of the ‘water margin’: the Cambrian biota of Chengjiang,Yunnan, China

Shi Nai'an's fourteenth century Chinese epic ‘Water Margin’ tells of the release of 36 heavenly spirits and 72 baleful stars from their captivity beneath a tablet of stone at Mount Longhu in Jiangxi Province. They are reincarnated as the 108 heroes of the Liangshan marsh in Shandong Province, who rise against an unjust world. The virtuous exploits of the ‘108’ were brought to life through the cathode‐ray screens of 1970s television sets, as the TV series The Water Margin introduced heroes like Lin Chong battling his evil nemesis Gao Qiu. Far to the west of Jiangxi Province and several hundred years after the Water Margin during the summer of 1984, a young scientist from Nanjing was working amongst the hills and lakes of southern Yunnan Province. He too overturned a stone slab, releasing from their half‐billion year captivity a cornucopia of new Chinese legends. His name was Xianguang Hou and he had made one of the most momentous fossil discoveries in history, uncovering the exceptionally preserved marine fossils of the Chengjiang biota from the ancient water margin of Cambrian seas.     

Precipitation variability during the past 400?years in the Xiaolong Mountain (central China) inferred from tree rings

We developed the first tree-ring chronology, based on 73 cores from 29 Pinus tabulaeformis trees, for the Xiaolong Mountain area of central China, a region at the boundary of the Asian summer monsoon. This chronology exhibits significant (at 0.01 level) positive correlations with precipitation in May and June, and negative correlations with temperature in May, June and July. Highest linear correlation is observed between tree growth and the seasonalized (April–July) precipitation, suggesting that tree rings tend to integrate the monthly precipitation signals. Accordingly, the April–July total precipitation was reconstructed back to 1629 using these tree rings, explaining 44.7?% of the instrumental variance. A severe drought occurred in the area during the 1630s–1640s, which may be related to the weakened Asian summer monsoon caused by a low land-sea thermal gradient. The dry epoch during the 1920s–1930s and since the late 1970s may be explained by the strengthened Hadley circulation in a warmer climate. The dry (wet) epochs of the 1920s–1930s (the 1750s and 1950s) occurred during the warm (cold) phases of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that are often associated with weakened (strengthened) East Asian summer monsoon. These relationships indicate significant teleconnections operating over the past centuries in central China related to large-scale synoptic features.     

Recent crustal movements in the Central Sierra Nevada—Walker lane region of California—Nevada: Part ii, The pyramid lake right-slip fault zone segment of the Walker lane

The Pyramid Lake fault zone is within the Honey Lake—Walker Lake segment of the Walker Lane, a NW-trending zone of right-slip transcurrent faulting, which extends for more than 600 km from Las Vegas, Nevada, to beyond Honey Lake, California. Multiscale, multiformat analysis of Landsat imagery and large-scale (1: 12,000) lowsun angle aerial photography, delineated both regional and site-specific evidence for faults in Late Cenozoic sedimentary deposits southwest of Pyramid Lake. The fault zone is coincident with a portion of a distinct NW-trending topographic discontinuity on the Landsat mosaic of Nevada. The zone exhibits numerous geomorphic features characteristic of strike-slip fault zones, including: recent scarps, offset stream channels, linear gullies, elongate troughs and depressions, sag ponds, vegetation alignments, transcurrent buckles, and rhombohedral and wedge-shaped enclosed depressions. These features are conspicuously developed in Late Pleistocene and Holocene sedimentary deposits and landforms.The Pyramid Lake shear zone has a maximum observable width of 5 km, defined by Riedel and conjugate Riedel shears with maximum observable lenghts of 10 and 3 km, respectively. P-shears have formed symmetrical to the Riedel shears and the principal displacement shears, or continuous horizontal shears, isolate elongate lenses of essentially passive material; most of the shears are inclined at an angle of approximately 4° to the principal direction of displacement. This suggests that the shear zone is in an early “PreResidual Structure” stage of evolution, with the principal deformation mechanism of direct shear replacing the kinematic restraints inherent in the strain field.Historic seismic activity includes microseismic events and may include the earthquake of about 1850 reported for the Pyramid Lake area with an estimated Richter magnitude of 7.0. Based on worldwide relations of earthquake magnitude to length of the zone of surface rupture, the Pyramid Lake fault zone is inferred to be capable of generating a 7.0–7.5-magnitude event for a maximum observable length of approximately 6 km and a 6.75–7.25-magnitude event for a half length of approximately 30 km.     

The PL calibration for Milky Way Cepheids and its implications for the distance scale

The rationale behind recent calibrations of the Cepheid PL relation using the Wesenheit formulation is reviewed and reanalyzed, and it is shown that recent conclusions regarding a possible change in slope of the PL relation for short-period and long-period Cepheids are tied to a pathological distribution of HST calibrators within the instability strip. A recalibration of the period-luminosity relation is obtained using Galactic Cepheids in open clusters and groups, the resulting relationship, described by log L/L _⊙=2.415(±0.035)+1.148(±0.044)log P, exhibiting only the moderate scatter expected from color spread within the instability strip. The relationship is confirmed by Cepheids with HST parallaxes, although without the need for Lutz-Kelker corrections, and in general by Cepheids with revised Hipparcos parallaxes, albeit with concerns about the cited precisions of the latter. A Wesenheit formulation of W _V =−2.259(±0.083)−4.185(±0.103)log P for Galactic Cepheids is tested successfully using Cepheids in the inner regions of the galaxy NGC 4258, confirming the independent geometrical distance established for the galaxy from OH masers. Differences between the extinction properties of interstellar and extragalactic dust may yet play an important role in the further calibration of the Cepheid PL relation and its application to the extragalactic distance scale.     

Micrometeorological Observations of a Microburst in Southern Finland

On the afternoon of 3 July 2004 in Hyytiälä (Juupajoki, Finland), convective cells produced a strong downburst causing forest damage. The SMEAR II field station, situated near the damage site, enabled a unique micrometeorological analysis of a microburst with differences above and inside the canopy. At the time of the event, a squall line associated with a cold front was crossing Hyytiälä with a reflectivity maximum in the middle of the squall line. A bow echo, rear-inflow notch, and probable mesovortex were observed in radar data. The bow echo moved west-north-west, and its apex travelled just north of Hyytiälä. The turbulence data were analysed at two locations above the forest canopy and at one location at sub-canopy. At 1412 EET (Eastern European Time, UTC+2), the horizontal and vertical wind speed increased and the wind veered, reflecting the arrival of a gust front. At the same time, the carbon dioxide concentration increased due to turbulent mixing, the temperature decreased due to cold air flow from aloft and aerosol particle concentration decreased due to rain scavenging. An increase in the number concentration of ultra-fine particles (< 10 nm) was detected, supporting the new particle formation either from cloud outflow or due to rain. Five minutes after the gust front (1417 EET), strong horizontal and downward vertical wind speed gusts occurred with maxima of 22 and 15 m s^?1, respectively, reflecting the microburst. The turbulence spectra before, during and after the event were consistent with traditional turbulence spectral theory.     

Can Plant Competition and Diversity Reduce the Growth and Survival of Exotic <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phragmites australis</Emphasis> Invading a Tidal Marsh?

The rapid proliferation of Phragmites australis in North America has challenged resource managers to curb its expansion and reduce the loss of functional tidal marsh. We investigated whether native plant competition could reduce the ability of Phragmites to invade a tidal marsh, and if plant diversity (species richness, evenness, and composition) altered the competitive outcome. Immature Phragmites shoots and four native halophytes were transplanted to small but dense field plots (~1,200 shoots m⁻²) comprising three community structure types (Phragmites alone, Phragmites + 1 native species, and Phragmites + 4 native species). Interspecific competition significantly reduced Phragmites aboveground biomass, shoot length production, density, and survival by approximately 60%. Additionally, plots planted with greater native diversity contained Phragmites with the lowest growth and survival, potentially indicating diversity-enhanced resource competition. Competition consistently reduced the growth of Phragmites even under favorable conditions: lack of strong tidal flooding stresses as well as elevated nutrient pools.     

Water level variations in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries,North Carolina due to local and remote forcing

Water level time series records from the Neuse and Pamlico River Estuaries were statistically compared to local and distant wind field data, water level records within the Pamlico Sound and also coastal ocean sites to determine the relative contribution of each time series to water levels in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries. The objectives of this study were to examine these time series data using various statistical methods (i.e. autoregressive, empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF), exploratory data analysis (EDA)) to determine short- and long-time-scale variability, and to develop predictive statistical models that can be used to estimate past water level fluctuations in both the Neuse Estuary (NE) and Pamlico Estuary (PE). Short- and long-time-scale similarities were observed in all time series of estuarine, Pamlico Sound and subtidal coastal ocean water level and wind component data, due to events (nor'easters, fronts and tropical systems) and seasonality. Empirical orthogonal function analyses revealed a strong coastal ocean and wind field contribution to water level in the NE and PE. Approximately 95% of the variation was captured in the first two EOF components for water level data from the NE, sound and coastal ocean, and 70% for the PE, sound and coastal ocean. Spectral density plots revealed strong diurnal signals in both wind and water level data, and a strong cross correlation and coherency between the NE water level and the North/South wind component. There was good agreement between data and predictions using autoregressive statistical models for the NE (R² = 0.92) and PE (R² = 0.76). These methods also revealed significant autoregressive lags for the NE (days 1 and 3) and for the PE (days 1, 2 and 3). Significant departures from predictions are attributed to local meteorological and hydrological events. The autoregressive techniques showed significant predictive improvement over ordinary least squares methods. The results are considered within the context of providing long time-scale hindcast data for the two estuaries, and the importance of these data for multidisciplinary researchers and managers.     

A Case Study on the Effects of Heterogeneous Soil Moisture on Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Structure in the Southern Great Plains, U.S.A. Part II: Mesoscale Modelling

The importance of soil moisture inputs and improved model physics in the prediction of the daytime boundary-layer structure during the Southern Great Plains Hydrology Experiment 1997 (SGP97) is investigated using the non-hydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model MM5. This is Part II of a two-part study examining the relationship of surface heterogeneity to observed boundary-layer structure. Part I focuses on observations and utilizes a simple model while Part II uses observations and MM5 modelling. Soil moisture inputs tested include a lookup table based on soil type and season, output from an offline land-surface model (LSM) forced by atmospheric observations, and high-resolution ( 800 m) airborne microwave remotely sensed data. Model physics improvements are investigated by comparing an LSM directly coupled with the MM5 to a simpler force-restore method at the surface. The scale of land surface heterogeneities is compared to the scale of their effects on boundary-layer structure.The use of more detailed soil moisture fields allowed the MM5 to better represent the large-scale (hundreds of km) and small-scale (tens of km) horizontal gradients in surface-layer weather and, to a lesser degree, the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) height, which was evaluated against observations measured by differential absorption lidar (DIAL). The benefits of coupling an LSM to the MM5 were not readily evident in this summertime case, with the model having particular difficulty simulating the timing of maximum surface fluxes while underestimating the depth of the mixed layer.