An experiment on reservoir representation schemes to improve hydrologic prediction: coupling the national water model with the HEC-ResSim

ABSTRACT

This study experiments with reservoir representation schemes to improve the ability to model active water management in the National Water Model (NWM). For this purpose, we developed an integrated water management model, NWM-ResSim, by coupling the NWM with HEC-ResSim, and two reservoir representation schemes are tested: simulation of reservoir operations and retrieval of scheduled operations. The experiments focus on a pilot reservoir domain in the Russian River basin – Lake Mendocino, California – and its contributing watershed. The evaluation results suggest that the NWM-ResSim improves the simulation performance of reservoir outflow from this managed reservoir over the NWM default level pool routing scheme. The degree of this improvement depends on the suitability of the operation guidance; the reservoir operations simulation scheme could have acceptable errors for the purposes of water resources management, but not for flood operations. Results of the retrieval scheme of scheduled operations demonstrated better performance for sub-daily flood operations.     

Magnetism and thermal evolution of the terrestrial planets

Of the terrestrial planets, Earth and probably Mercury possess substantial intrinsic magnetic fields generated by core dynamos, while Venus and Mars apparently lack such fields. Thermal histories are calculated for these planets and are found to admit several possible present states, including those which suggest simple explanations for the observations; whule the cores of Earth and Mercury are continuing to freeze, the cores of Venus and Mars may still be completely liquid. The models assume whole mantle convection, which is parameterized by a simple Nusselt-Rayleigh number relation and dictates the rate at which heat escapes from the core. It is found that completely fluid cores, devoid of intrinsic heat sources, are not likely to sustain thermal convection for the age of the solar system but cool to a subadiabatic, conductive state that can not maintain a dynamo. Planets which nucleate an inner core continue to sustain a dynamo because of the gravitational energy release and chemically driven convection that accompany inner core growth. The absence of a significant inner core can arise in Venus because of its slightly higher temperature and lower central pressure relative to Earth, while a Martian core avoids the onset of freezing if the abundance of sulfur in the core is ?15% by mass. All of the models presented assume that (I) core dynamos are driven by thermal and/or chemical convection; (ii) radiogenic heat production is confined to the mantle; (iii) mantle and core cool from initially hot states which are at the solidus and superliquidus, respectively; and (iv) any inner core excludes the light alloying material (sulfur or oxygen) which then mixes uniformly upward through the outer core. The models include realistic pressure and composition-dependent freezing curves for the core, and material parameters are chosen so that the correct present-day values of heat outflow, upper mantle temperature and viscosity, and inner core radius are obtained for the earth. It is found that Venus and Mars may have once had dynamos maintained by thermal convection alone. Earth may have had a completely fluid core and a dynamo maintained by thermal convection for the first 2 to 3 by, but an inner core nucleates and the dynamo energetics are subsequently dominated by gravitational energy release. Complete freezing of the Mercurian core is prohibited if it contains even a small amount of sulfur, and a dynamo can be maintained by chemical convection in a thin, fluid shell.     

Navy Fan, California Borderland: Growth pattern and depositional processes

Navy Fan is a Late Pleistocene sand-rich fan prograding into an irregularly shaped basin in the southern California Borderland. The middle fan, characterized by one active and two abandoned “distributary” channels and associated lobe deposits, at present onlaps part of the basin slope directly opposite from the upper-fan valley, thus dividing the lower-fan/basin-plain regions into two separate parts of different depths. Fine-scale mesotopographic relief on the fan surface and correlation of individual turbidite beds through nearly 40 cores on the middle and lower fan provide data for evaluating the Late Pleistocene and Holocene depositional processes. Margin setting represents fan and/or source area     

Visual classification of very fine-grained sediments: Evaluation through univariate and multivariate statistics

Classifying very fine-grained rocks through fabric elements provides information about depositional environments, but is subject to the biases of visual taxonomy. To evaluate the statistical significance of an empirical classification of very fine-grained rocks, samples from Devonian shales in four cored wells in West Virginia and Virginia were measured for 15 variables: quartz, illite, pyrite and expandable clays determined by X-ray diffraction; total sulfur, organic content, inorganic carbon, matrix density, bulk density, porosity, silt, as well as density, sonic travel time, resistivity, and -ray response measured from well logs. The four lithologic types comprised: (1) sharply banded shale, (2) thinly laminated shale, (3) lenticularly laminated shale, and (4) nonbanded shale. Univariate and multivariate analyses of variance showed that the lithologic classification reflects significant differences for the variables measured, difference that can be detected independently of stratigraphic effects. Little-known statistical methods found useful in this work included: the multivariate analysis of variance with more than one effect, simultaneous plotting of samples and variables on canonical variates, and the use of parametric ANOVA and MANOVA on ranked data.     

Magnetic fields,loop prominences and the great flares of August, 1972

Lines of magnetic force, computed under the assumption that the solar corona is free of electric currents, have been compared with loop prominence systems associated with three flares in August, 1972. The computed fields closely match the observations of loops at a height of 40000 km at times 3–4 h after onset of the associated flares. Inferred magnetic field intensities in the loops range from 1300 G where the loops converge into a sunspot to 50–80 G at 40 000 km above the photosphere. The first-seen and lowest-lying loops are sheared with respect to the calculated fields. Higher loops conform more closely to the current-free fieldlines. A model of Barnes and Sturrock is used to relate the degree of shear to the excess magnetic energy available during the flare of August 7. On various lines of evidence, it is suggested that magnetic energy was available to accelerate particles not only during the impulsive phase of the flare, but also during the following 2–3 h. The particle acceleration region seems to be in the magnetic fields just above the visible loops. The bright outer edges of the flare ribbons are identified as particle impact regions. The dense knots of loop prominence material fall to the ribbons' inner edges.On leave from Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.     

Lunar structure and dynamics - results from the apollo passive seismic experiment

Analysis of seismic signals from man-made impacts, moonquakes, and meteoroid impacts has established the presence of a lunar crust, approximately 60 km thick in the region of the Apollo seismic network; an underlying zone of nearly constant seismic velocity extending to a depth of about 1000 km, referred to as the mantle; and a lunar core, beginning at a depth of about 1000 km, in which shear waves are highly attenuated suggesting the presence of appreciable melting. Seismic velocitites in the crust reach 7 km s^–1 beneath the lower-velocity surface zone. This velocity corresponds to that expected for the gabbroic anorthosites found to predominate in the highlands, suggesting that rock of this composition is the major constituent of the lunar crust. The upper mantle velocity of about 8 km s^–1 for compressional waves corresponds to those of terrestrial olivines, pyroxenites and peridotites. The deep zone of melting may simply represent the depth at which solidus temperatures are exceeded in the lower mantle. If a silicate interior is assumed, as seems most plausible, minimum temperatures of between 1450°C and 1600°C at a depth of 1000 km are implied. The generation of deep moonquakes, which appear to be concentrated in a zone between 600 km and 1000 km deep, may now be explained as a consequence of the presence of fluids which facilitate dislocation. The preliminary estimate of meteoroid flux, based upon the statistics of seismic signals recorded from lunar impacts, is between one and three orders of magnitude lower than previous estimates from Earth-based measurements.Paper dedicated to Professor Harold C. Urey on the occasion of his 80th birthday on 29 April, 1973.     

Observing total solar eclipses from near the edge of the predicted path

Suitable observations from various locations in the predicted path of a total solar eclipse can provide information about the relative positions and shapes of the Sun and Moon to about ±0.02. The total solar eclipse of 1972, July 10 was observed from locations near the edges of its predicted path. The durations of the limb phenomena were greatly enhanced. Preliminary analysis of the observations shows that the eclipse shadow passed 3 km northeast of its predicted path.Communication presented at the conference on Lunar Dynamics and Observational Coordinate Systems held January 15–17, 1973 at the Lunar Science Institute, Houston, Tex., U.S.A.     

An algorithm for finding the position of a point relative to a fixed polygonal boundary

This article describes a method that determines the position of a point relative to a fixed boundary. Its advantage over the other existing algorithms described below is that in most cases it is necessary that only part of the algorithm be executed to determine the position of the point. A possible inconvenience of using this algorithm is that the contour boundary has to be entered as data. For problems where the boundary often changes the algorithm is not suitable in its present form. The applications envisaged here are to cases where the position of a very large number of points have to be determined relative to one fixed polygonal boundary whose shape is known in advance, for example, blanking out of contours in automatic contouring, or selecting drill holes which lie in the particular part of a mineral deposit.