Variogram Model Selection via Nonparametric Derivative Estimation

Before optimal linear prediction can be performed on spatial data sets, the variogram is usually estimated at various lags and a parametric model is fitted to those estimates. Apart from possible a priori knowledge about the process and the user's subjectivity, there is no standard methodology for choosing among valid variogram models like the spherical or the exponential ones. This paper discusses the nonparametric estimation of the variogram and its derivative, based on the spectral representation of positive definite functions. The use of the estimated derivative to help choose among valid parametric variogram models is presented. Once a model is selected, its parameters can be estimated—for example, by generalized least squares. A small simulation study is performed that demonstrates the usefulness of estimating the derivative to help model selection and illustrates the issue of aliasing. MATLAB software for nonparametric variogram derivative estimation is available at http://www-math.mit.edu/~gorsich/derivative.html. An application to the Walker Lake data set is also presented.     

Thermal contraction crack polygons on Mars: A synthesis from HiRISE, Phoenix, and terrestrial analog studies

Thermal contraction crack polygons are complex landforms that have begun to be deciphered on Earth and Mars by the combined investigative efforts of geomorphology, environmental monitoring, physical models, paleoclimate reconstruction, and geochemistry. Thermal contraction crack polygons are excellent indicators of the current or past presence of ground ice, ranging in ice content from weakly cemented soils to debris-covered massive ice. Relative to larger topographic features, polygons may form rapidly, and reflect climate conditions at the time of formation—preserving climate information as relict landforms in the geological record. Polygon morphology and internal textural characteristics can be used to distinguish surfaces modified by the seasonal presence of a wet active layer or dry active layer, and to delimit subsurface ice conditions. Analysis of martian polygon morphology and distribution indicates that geologically-recent thermal contraction crack polygons on Mars form predominantly in an ice-rich latitude-dependent mantle, more likely composed of massive ice deposited by precipitation than by cyclical vapor diffusion into regolith. Regional and local heterogeneities in polygon morphology can be used to distinguish variations in ice content, deposition and modification history, and to assess microclimate variation on timescales of ka to Ma. Analyses of martian polygon morphology, guided by investigations of terrestrial analog thermal contraction crack polygons, strongly suggest the importance of excess ice in the formation and development of many martian thermal contraction crack polygons—implying the presence of an ice-rich substrate that was fractured during and subsequent to obliquity-driven depositional periods and continually modified by ongoing vapor equilibration processes.     

内蒙古鄂尔多斯高原古冰缘遗迹科学考察研究进展

冰缘遗迹(特别是冷生楔形构造及融冻褶皱)是重建古气候及第四纪晚期多年冻土环境的重要证据.内蒙古鄂尔多斯高原是我国北方地区冰缘现象最为发育的地区之一.为准确了解鄂尔多斯高原冰缘遗迹类型及其分布特征、区域冻土演化历史等,中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院和荷兰自由大学共同组成科研小组,于2018年5—6月组织了"鄂尔多斯高原...     

Defining the Potential of Nanoscale Re‐Os Isotope Systematics Using Atom Probe Microscopy

Atom probe microscopy (APM) is a relatively new in situ tool for measuring isotope fractions from nanoscale volumes (< 0.01 μm³). We calculate the theoretical detectable difference of an isotope ratio measurement result from APM using counting statistics of a hypothetical data set to be ± 4δ or 0.4% (2s). However, challenges associated with APM measurements (e.g., peak ranging, hydride formation and isobaric interferences), result in larger uncertainties if not properly accounted for. We evaluate these factors for Re‐Os isotope ratio measurements by comparing APM and negative thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (N‐TIMS) measurement results of pure Os, pure Re, and two synthetic Re‐Os‐bearing alloys from Schwander et al. (2015, Meteoritics and Planetary Science, 50, 893) [the original metal alloy (HSE) and alloys produced by heating HSE within silicate liquid (SYN)]. From this, we propose a current best practice for APM Re‐Os isotope ratio measurements. Using this refined approach, mean APM and N‐TIMS ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁹Os measurement results agree within 0.05% and 2s (pure Os), 0.6–2% and 2s (SYN) and 5–10% (HSE). The good agreement of N‐TIMS and APM ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁹Os measurements confirms that APM can extract robust isotope ratios. Therefore, this approach permits nanoscale isotope measurements of Os‐bearing alloys using the Re‐Os geochronometer that could not be measured by conventional measurement principles.     

Nonhydrostatic effects and the determination of icy satellites’ moment of inertia

We compare the moment of inertia (MOI) of a simple hydrostatic, two layer body as determined by the Radau–Darwin Approximation (RDA) to its exact hydrostatic MOI calculated to first order in the parameter q = Ω²R³/GM, where Ω, R, and M are the spin angular velocity, radius, and mass of the body, and G is the gravitational constant. We show that the RDA is in error by less than 1% for many configurations of core sizes and layer densities congruent with those of solid bodies in the Solar System. We then determine the error in the MOI of icy satellites calculated with the RDA due to nonhydrostatic effects by using a simple model in which the core and outer shell have slight degree 2 distortions away from their expected hydrostatic shapes. Since the hydrostatic shape has an associated stress of order ρΩ²R² (where ρ is density) it follows that the importance of nonhydrostatic effects scales with the dimensionless number σ/ρΩ²R², where σ is the nonhydrostatic stress. This highlights the likely importance of this error for slowly rotating bodies (e.g., Titan and Callisto) and small bodies (e.g., Saturn moons other than Titan). We apply this model to Titan, Callisto, and Enceladus and find that the RDA-derived MOI can be 10% greater than the actual MOI for nonhydrostatic stresses as small as ∼0.1 bars at the surface or ∼1 bar at the core–mantle boundary, but the actual nonhydrostatic stresses for a given shape change depends on the specifics of the interior model. When we apply this model to Ganymede we find that the stresses necessary to produce the same MOI errors as on Titan, Callisto, and Enceladus are an order of magnitude greater due to its faster rotation, so Ganymede may be the only instance where RDA is reliable. We argue that if satellites can reorient to the lowest energy state then RDA will always give an overestimate of the true MOI. Observations have shown that small nonhydrostatic gravity anomalies exist on Ganymede and Titan, at least at degree 3 and presumably higher. If these anomalies are indicative of the nonhydrostatic anomalies at degree 2 then these imply only a small correction to the MOI, even for Titan, but it is possible that the physical origin of nonhydrostatic degree 2 effects is different from the higher order terms. We conclude that nonhydrostatic effects could be present to an extent that allows Callisto and Titan to be fully differentiated.     

Recruitment patterns of Serpula vermicularis L. (Polychaeta, Serpulidae) in Loch Creran, Scotland

This study aimed to contribute to conservation management of reefs of Serpula vermicularis by increasing understanding of the factors influencing larval settlement. The study was carried out in Loch Creran, which supports the most extensive known development of S. vermicularis reefs in the world. Settlement plates were deployed to examine the influence of season, depth, reef density, substrate type and orientation. Monthly deployment of plates revealed settlement of S. vermicularis to occur predominantly from mid-June to mid-October, peaking in late August to early September. Settlement of Pomatoceros spp. peaked much earlier, in late May to early June. Deployment of plates at different depths revealed a marked reduction in S. vermicularis settlement intensity between 6 and 12 m. As this corresponds with the deeper limit of the peripheral fringe of serpulid reefs in the loch, it is suggested that this limit is imposed by a depth-correlated settlement response, rather than reduction in available substrata. Comparisons of various substrata showed a preference by S. vermicularis larvae for a slate over a scallop substrate and no evidence of enhanced recruitment to occupied or unoccupied tubes of S. vermicularis, suggesting that gregarious attraction is unlikely to be a factor causing reef formation. Settlement onto the upper side of a horizontal scallop substrate was found to be insignificant in comparison with the underside or a vertically orientated scallop. Evidence for the role of light in controlling the depth and substrate-orientation preferences of S. vermicularis larvae is discussed. Based on the results of this study, recommendations are made regarding remediation of areas suffering reef damage.     

Developing coastal adaptation to climate change in the New York City infrastructure-shed: process, approach, tools, and strategies

While current rates of sea level rise and associated coastal flooding in the New York City region appear to be manageable by stakeholders responsible for communications, energy, transportation, and water infrastructure, projections for sea level rise and associated flooding in the future, especially those associated with rapid icemelt of the Greenland and West Antarctic Icesheets, may be outside the range of current capacity because extreme events might cause flooding beyond today??s planning and preparedness regimes. This paper describes the comprehensive process, approach, and tools for adaptation developed by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in conjunction with the region??s stakeholders who manage its critical infrastructure, much of which lies near the coast. It presents the adaptation framework and the sea-level rise and storm projections related to coastal risks developed through the stakeholder process. Climate change adaptation planning in New York City is characterized by a multi-jurisdictional stakeholder?Cscientist process, state-of-the-art scientific projections and mapping, and development of adaptation strategies based on a risk-management approach.     

Modelling the effect of changing precipitation inputs on deep soil water utilization

Forests in the Southeastern United States are predicted to experience future changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs as well as more variable precipitation events. These climate change‐induced alterations could increase drought and lower soil water availability. Drought could alter rooting patterns and increase the importance of deep roots that access subsurface water resources. To address plant response to drought in both deep rooting and soil water utilization as well as soil drainage, we utilize a throughfall reduction experiment in a loblolly pine plantation of the Southeastern United States to calibrate and validate a hydrological model. The model was accurately calibrated against field measured soil moisture data under ambient rainfall and validated using 30% throughfall reduction data. Using this model, we then tested these scenarios: (a) evenly reduced precipitation; (b) less precipitation in summer, more in winter; (c) same total amount of precipitation with less frequent but heavier storms; and (d) shallower rooting depth under the above 3 scenarios. When less precipitation was received, drainage decreased proportionally much faster than evapotranspiration implying plants will acquire water first to the detriment of drainage. When precipitation was reduced by more than 30%, plants relied on stored soil water to satisfy evapotranspiration suggesting 30% may be a threshold that if sustained over the long term would deplete plant available soil water. Under the third scenario, evapotranspiration and drainage decreased, whereas surface run‐off increased. Changes in root biomass measured before and 4 years after the throughfall reduction experiment were not detected among treatments. Model simulations, however, indicated gains in evapotranspiration with deeper roots under evenly reduced precipitation and seasonal precipitation redistribution scenarios but not when precipitation frequency was adjusted. Deep soil and deep rooting can provide an important buffer capacity when precipitation alone cannot satisfy the evapotranspirational demand of forests. How this buffering capacity will persist in the face of changing precipitation inputs, however, will depend less on seasonal redistribution than on the magnitude of reductions and changes in rainfall frequency.     

Changes in the content and composition of pedogenic iron oxyhydroxides in a chronosequence of soils in southern California

Studies of the pedogenic iron oxyhydroxides in suites of latest Holocene to middle Pleistocene soils formed on fluvial deposits of the transverse ranges, southern California, indicate that the content and composition of iron oxyhydroxide change in a systematic manner. Analysis of total secondary free iron oxides (dithionite extractable, Fe₂O₃d) and ferrihydrite (oxalate extractable, Fe₂O₃o) shows that (1) a single-logarithmic model (Y = a + b log X) or double logarithmic model (log Y = a + b log X), where Y is the total mass of pedogenic Fe oxides (g/cm²-soil column) and X is soil age, describes the rate of increase in Fe₂O₃d with time; (2) the Fe₂O₃d content correlates linearly with soil reddening and clay content; (3) the $\text{Fe}{}_2\text{O}{}_3\text{o}\text{Fe}{}_2\text{O}{}_3\text{d}$ ratio, which indicates the degree of Fe oxide crystallinity, is moderately high to very high (0.22–0.58) in middle Holocene to latest Pleistocene soils and progressively decreases to less than 0.10 in older soils; (4) the value of the $\text{Fe}{}_2\text{O}{}_3\text{o}\text{Fe}{}_2\text{O}{}_3\text{d}$ ratio also appears to be infuenced by climate; and (5) temporal changes in Fe oxide content and mineralogy are accompanied by related, systematic changes in clay mineralogy and organic matter content. These relationships are attributed to a soil environment that must initially favor ferrihydrite precipitation and/or organic matter-Fe complexation. Subsequent transformation to hematite causes increasingly intense reddening and a concomitant decrease in the $\text{Fe}{}_2\text{O}{}_3\text{o}\text{Fe}{}_2\text{O}{}_3\text{d}$ ratio. The results demonstrate that iron oxide analysis is useful for numerical age studies of noncalcic soils and shows potential as an indicator of paleoclimates.     

Geochemical Characteristics,Origin, and Evolution of Ore‐Forming Fluids of the Khut Copper Skarn Deposit,West of Yazd in Central Iran

The Khut copper skarn deposit is located at about 50 km northwest of Taft City in Yazd province in the middle part of the Urumieh‐Dokhtar magmatic arc. Intrusion of granitoid of Oligocene–Miocene age into carbonate rocks of the Triassic Nayband Formation led to the formation of marble and a calcic skarn. The marble contains high grade Cu mineralization that occurs mainly as open space filling and replacement. Cu‐rich sulfide samples from the mineralized marble are also anomalous in Au, Zn, and Pb. In contrast, the calcic skarn is only weakly anomalous in Cu and W. The calcic skarn is divided into garnet skarn and garnet–pyroxene skarn zones. Paragenetic relationships and microthermometric data from fluid inclusions in garnet and calcite indicate that the compositional evolution of skarn minerals occurred in three main stages as follows. (i) The early prograde stage, which is characterized by Mg‐rich hedenbergite (Hd_53.7Di_42.3–Hd_86.1Di_9.5) with Al‐bearing andradite (69.8–99.5 mol% andradite). The temperature in the early prograde skarn varies from 400 to 500°C at 500 bar. (ii) The late prograde stage is manifested by almost pure andradite (96.2–98.4 mol% andradite). Based on the fluid inclusion data from garnet, fluid temperature and salinity in this stage is estimated to vary from 267 to 361°C and from 10.1 to 21.1 wt% NaCl equivalent, respectively. Pyrrhotite precipitation started during this stage. (iii) The retrograde stage occurs in an exoskarn, which consists of an assemblage of ferro‐actinolite, quartz, calcite, epidote, chlorite, sphalerite, pyrite, and chalcopyrite that partially replaces earlier mineral assemblages under hydrostatic conditions during fracturing of the early skarn. Fluids in calcite yielded lower temperatures (T < 260°C) and fluid salinity declined to ～8 wt% NaCl equivalent. The last stage mineralization in the deposit is supergene weathering/alteration represented by the formation of iron hydroxide, Cu‐carbonate, clay minerals, and calcite. Sulfur isotope data of chalcopyrite (δ³⁴S of +1.4 to +5.2‰) show an igneous sulfur source. Mineralogy and mineral compositions of the prograde assemblage of the Khut skarn are consistent with deposition under intermediately oxidized and slightly lower fS₂ conditions at shallow crustal levels compared with those of other typical Fe‐bearing Cu–Au skarn systems.