The role of urban growth,climate change,and their interplay in altering runoff extremes

Changes in climate and urban growth are the most influential factors affecting hydrological characteristics in urban and extra‐urban contexts. The assessment of the impacts of these changes on the extreme rainfall–runoff events may have important implications on urban and extra‐urban management policies against severe events, such as floods, and on the design of hydraulic infrastructures. Understanding the effects of the interaction between climate change and urban growth on the generation of runoff extremes is the main aim of this paper. We carried out a synthetic experiment on a river catchment of 64 km² to generate hourly runoff time series under different hypothetical scenarios. We imposed a growth of the percentage of urban coverage within the basin (from 1.5% to 25%), a rise in mean temperature of 2.6 °C, and an alternatively increase/decrease in mean annual precipitation of 25%; changes in mean annual precipitation were imposed following different schemes, either changing rainstorm frequency or rainstorm intensity. The modelling framework consists of a physically based distributed hydrological model, which simulates fast and slow mechanisms of runoff generation directly connected with the impervious areas, a land‐use change model, and a weather generator. The results indicate that the peaks over threshold and the hourly annual peaks, used as hydrological indicators, are very sensitive to the rainstorm intensity. Moreover, the effects of climate changes dominate on those of urban growth determining an exacerbation of the fast runoff component in extreme events and a reduction of the slow and deep runoff component, thus limiting changes in the overall runoff.     

Systematically variable geometry and architecture of incised-valley fills controlled by orbital forcing: A conceptual model from the Pennsylvanian Breathitt Group (Kentucky,USA)

Incised-valley fills preserved within ancient coastal to shallow-marine successions represent important archives of environmental and sea-level change. Most current knowledge about the origin of incised valleys stems from Quaternary case studies; however, research on pre-Quaternary examples can shed light on valley formation and evolution across longer timespans. This article describes different types of incised-valley fills from Lower to Middle Pennsylvanian fluvio-deltaic successions of the Breathitt Group (eastern Kentucky), accumulated in the Central Appalachian Foreland under prevalent glacioeustatic forcing driven by Gondwanan glaciations. Based on well-established criteria for their recognition, numerous incised-valley fills were identified from outcrop and subsurface data through more than 300 m of clastic successions consisting of fourth-order stratigraphic sequences stacked into third-order composite sequences. Incised-valley fills were categorized into three archetypes based on lateral extent and aspect ratio (relatively wide versus narrow valley fills), nature of infill (fully continental versus mixed marine and continental facies associations) and relationships to underlying coal zones (truncating versus non-truncating). The systematic occurrence of each incised-valley fill type at specific stratigraphic positions within every third-order sequence suggests control by a periodic allogenic factor. Valley-fill archetypes are interpreted in terms of variable accommodation-supply ratios driven by variable duration of formative base-level cycles. For example, relatively wide incised-valley fills with alluvial infill evolved during long-lived cycles whose prolonged base-level drawdown maintained low accommodation/supply ratios. Deeper valleys with low aspect ratios and mixed marine-continental infills were generated by short-lived base-level drawdown that forced higher accommodation/supply ratios. Available chronological data for the studied successions consent to estimate base-level cycles spanning 10^4–5 years that were likely modulated by interference patterns of orbital parameters (obliquity and eccentricity) via global climate and glacioeustatic fluctuations. This conceptual model, relating incised-valley fill morphometry and internal architecture to orbital forcing patterns, provides a possible approach to predicting and interpreting incised-valley fill variability through successions accumulated during icehouse conditions.