Aegean Sea ridge barrier-and-basin sedimentation patterns

An isopach map of the Aegean Sea, based on a regionally comprehensive seismic-profile network, reveals the highly irregular distribution of unconsolidated sediments of post-Miocene age. Geologically recent structural activity has considerably modified the seafloor configuration of the north and south Aegean, and depositional patterns are to varying degree related to the complex Aegean physiography. From north to south, a series of ridges, islands, and plateaus have acted as effective barriers behind which sediments are trapped, primarily in depressions. Sources of sediment in the north Aegean troughs and basins include rivers and suspensate-rich water masses; material was also provided by the erosion of plateaus and ridges during phases of Pliocene uplift and regressions and Quaternary eustatic low sea-level stands when the Aegean became virtually land-locked and isolated from the Black Sea. Volcanic as well as terrigenous material has accumulated in the central and south Aegean. However, the rapid depositional rates in the south Aegean are more closely related to the flow exchange with the Levantine Basin and the consequent ponding of material behind the Peloponnesus-Crete and Crete-Rhodes ridges.     

An Overview of Dissolved and Suspended Matter Fluxes in the Loire River Basin: Natural and Anthropogenic Inputs

The spatial and temporal distributions of major elements were investigated in the surface waters and in associated suspended matter at two sites of the upper Loire basin (Orleans and Brehemont) between 1995 and 1998.According to geochemical and isotopic patterns, the dissolved load appears to result from a process of mixing rainwater inputs, weathering processes of carbonate and silicate bedrock, and agricultural and urban inputs. Natural inputs influence 60% of water chemical composition at both sites. Annual dissolved fluxes were estimated to be 1300 10³ t/y at Orleans and 1620 10³ t/y at Brehemont. Major elements are transported mainly in the dissolved fraction. After correcting for atmospheric and anthropogenic inputs, the silicate specific export rate was calculated to be 11 t/y/km² throughout the basin and the carbonate specific export rate to be from 47 t/y/km² at Orleans to 23 t/y/km² at Brehemont.The suspended load appears to result from at least two particle reservoirs: a silicate reservoir and a carbonate reservoir. The silicate reservoir has a detrital origin, mainly during periods of high flow, while the carbonate reservoir has a detrital origin during periods of high flow and an authigenic origin during periods of low flow. Of the total annual flow of suspended matter, this authigenic material represents 16% at Orleans, 25% at Brehemont and 37% in the fluvial part of the estuary. After correcting authigenic inputs, the specific export rate due to mechanical weathering was estimated to be 8 t/y/km² throughout the Loire basin.     

Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.     

Practical Incorporation of Multivariate Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Resource Modeling

There is a need to bridge theory and practice for incorporating parameter uncertainty in geostatistical simulation modeling workflows. Simulation workflows are a standard practice in natural resource and recovery modeling, but the incorporation of multivariate parameter uncertainty into those workflows is challenging. However, the objectives can be met without considerable extra effort and programming. The sampling distributions of statistics comprise the core theoretical notion with the addition of the spatial degrees of freedom to account for the redundancy in the spatially correlated data. Prior parameter uncertainty is estimated from multivariate spatial resampling. Simulation-based transfer of prior parameter uncertainty results in posterior distributions which are updated by data conditioning and the model domain extents and configuration. The results are theoretically tractable and practical to achieve, providing realistic assessments of uncertainty by accounting for large-scale parameter uncertainty, which is often the most important component impacting a project. A simulation-based multivariate workflow demonstrates joint modeling of intrinsic shale properties and uncertainty in estimated ultimate recovery in a shale gas project. The multivariate workflow accounts for joint prior parameter uncertainty given the current well locations and results in posterior estimates on global distributions of all modeled properties. This is achieved by transferring the joint prior parameter uncertainty through conditional simulations.     

A bridge over troubled water: A contextual analysis of social vulnerability to climate change in a riverine landscape in south-east Norway

Local communities in the Gudbrandsdalen region in Norway are increasingly exposed to climate-induced hazards such as floods and landslides. A core question is how community members respond to climate change and what factors contribute to more resilient communities. The authors used a contextual approach to analyze data from semi-structured interviews along five dimensions. In Gaustad Muncipality they found that individuals’ motivation to adapt to climate change depended largely on subjective values such as identity, place attachment, cultural values, and social networks among individuals, which means it is crucial that strategic plans for adaptation to climate change at different policy levels are experienced as relevant by community members. While the studied community has experienced heavy floods in river systems and streams, little evidence of adaptation was observed. Instead, they appeared to adopt coping strategies. Landowners may have limited incentives to adapt to climate change due to contraproductive policy measures such as economic compensation for direct losses without requiring improved practices. Effective adaptation to climate change on the local level is likely to require making compensation mechanisms contingent upon landowners showing willingness to change from coping to adaptive practices, as well as a contextualized approach integrating local and scientific forms of knowledge.