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991.
The frequency, intensity, and diurnal cycle of precipitation in surface and satellite observations over low- and mid-latitudes 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
Global precipitation data sets with high spatial and temporal resolution are needed for many applications, but they were unavailable
before the recent creation of several such satellite products. Here, we evaluate four different satellite data sets of hourly
or 3-hourly precipitation (namely CMORPH, PERSIANN, TRMM 3B42 and a microwave-only product referred to as MI) by comparing
the spatial patterns in seasonal mean precipitation amount, daily precipitation frequency and intensity, and the diurnal and
semidiurnal cycles among them and with surface synoptic weather reports. We found that these high-resolution products show
spatial patterns in seasonal mean precipitation amount comparable to other monthly products for the low- and mid-latitudes,
and the mean daily precipitation frequency and intensity maps are similar among these pure satellite-based precipitation data
sets and consistent with the frequency derived using weather reports over land. The satellite data show that spatial variations
in mean precipitation amount come largely from precipitation frequency rather than intensity, and that the use of satellite
infrared (IR) observations to improve sampling does not change the mean frequency, intensity and the diurnal cycle significantly.
Consistent with previous studies, the satellite data show that sub-daily variations in precipitation are dominated by the
24-h cycle, which has an afternoon–evening maximum and mean-to-peak amplitude of 30–100% of the daily mean in precipitation
amount over most land areas during summer. Over most oceans, the 24-h harmonic has a peak from midnight to early morning with
an amplitude of 10–30% during both winter and summer. These diurnal results are broadly consistent with those based on the
weather reports, although the time of maximum in the satellite precipitation is a few hours later (especially for TRMM and
PERSIANN) than that in the surface observations over most land and ocean, and it is closer to the phase of showery precipitation
from the weather reports. The TRMM and PERSIANN precipitation shows a spatially coherent time of maximum around 0300–0600
local solar time (LST) for a weak (amplitude <20%) semi-diurnal (12-h) cycle over most mid- to high-latitudes, comparable
to 0400–0600 LST in the surface data. The satellite data also confirm the notion that the diurnal cycle of precipitation amount
comes mostly from its frequency rather than its intensity over most low and mid-latitudes, with the intensity has only about
half of the strength of the diurnal cycle in the frequency and amount. The results suggest that these relatively new precipitation
products can be useful for many applications. 相似文献
992.
南海地区热通量的时空变化特征 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
本文利用美国 NCEP1958-1998 年高斯网格月平均再分析资料,分析了南海及周边地区(0~20°N,100~125°E)热通量(包括潜热通量和感热通量)的时空变化,结果表明该潜热通量、感热通量具有明显的季节转换特征.南海中部海区是潜热通量、感热通量季节变化最剧烈的关键区,南海季风对潜热、感热输送均有影响,并且蒸发潜热输送大于感热输送.EOF 分析表明,风速对潜热、感热输送贡献较大,另外气温和相对湿度对潜热输送有贡献,而水温与气温差对感热输送有贡献.整个南海地区潜热通量、感热通量具有明显的年际变化特征,潜热通量存在5~8 a 以及 2 a 左右的周期振动,而感热通量只有 5~8 a 的周期振动. 相似文献
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995.
Phenological changes in crops affect efficient agricultural production and can be used as important biological indicators of local and regional climate change. Although crop phenological changes and their responses to climate change, especially temperature, have been investigated, the impact of agronomic practice such as cultivar shifts and planted date changes on crop phenology remains unclear. Here, we used a long-term dataset (1981–2010) of wheat phenology and associated local weather data from 48 agro-meteorological stations in four temperature zones in China to analyze phenological changes of spring and winter wheat. Trend analysis method was used to estimate changes in the date of growth stages and the duration of growth phases, while sensitivity analysis method was used to qualify the response of growth phase duration to mean temperature (Tmean), total precipitation (PRE), and total sunshine duration (SSD). Using the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-wheat model, we isolated the impacts of climate change, cultivar selection, and sowing date on phenological change of wheat. Results show that phenological changes were greatest in the warm-temperate zone. Sensitivity analysis indicates that growth phase duration was generally negatively related to Tmean and positively related to PRE and SSD. The positive sensitivity response to Tmean occurred in the tillering to jointing and sowing to maturity growth periods in the warmer temperature zones, suggesting that warmer temperatures during the overwintering period hampered effective vernalization in winter wheat. Modeling results further indicate that reductions in wheat growth duration caused by climate change could be offset by the introduction of new cultivars with high thermal requirements and accelerated with delayed sowing date. 相似文献
996.
997.
以精细化预报为标志的现代天气预报业务对高时空分辨率气象数据的应用提出了更高的需求,而传统的预报分析制作系统MICAPS3(Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System Version 3)无法满足符合大数据特征的实时预报相关的数据应用。同时,模式预报和集合预报应用已在各专业预报领域中发挥越来越重要的作用,网格预报产品正在涵盖全部的预报业务流程,而MICAPS3无法提供便捷高效的支撑。为解决上述问题,国家气象中心启动了MICAPS4建设,一方面建立了基于大数据的气象实时预报应用技术体系,解决了气象大数据处理、存储、分析和显示效率的关键技术难题;另一方面搭建了多个满足不同复杂预报业务需求的专业化版本。MICAPS4将信息化技术与预报技术、预报业务流程紧密结合,解决了现代化预报方法的平台化集成应用与精细化预报制作的关键技术难题,基于MICAPS4基础框架的多个专业版在中央气象台和部分省级气象台进行业务化应用推广。基于CIMISS(China Integrated Meteorological Information Sharing System)-MICAPS4的海量数据存储环境,极大减轻了系统部署和本地化工作量,显著提升了数据解析及数据存储访问效率。 相似文献
998.
利用常规气象观测资料对萍乡地区2016年1月和2月两次相临的降雪过程进行对比分析,结果表明,1月过程的冷空气强度、动力条件、水汽条件及不稳定条件均优于2月过程,但1月过程仅出现零星小雪,2月过程却出现了大雪。采用ECWMF高分辨率资料和GPS/MET可降水量资料对两次过程进行更深入分析发现,1月过程的水汽条件、上升运动条件以及对称不稳定条件有明显的衰减,而2月过程中的水汽条件、上升运动条件以及对称不稳定条件都有所增强,且持续时间较长。 相似文献
999.
While most models project large increases in agricultural drought frequency and severity in the 21st century, significant uncertainties exist in these projections. Here, we compare the model-simulated changes with observation-based estimates since 1900 and examine model projections from both the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index with the Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PET) (sc_PDSI_pm) as a measure of agricultural drought. Results show that estimated long-term changes in global and hemispheric drought areas from 1900 to 2014 are consistent with the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-simulated response to historical greenhouse gases and other external forcing, with the short-term variations within the model spread of internal variability, despite that regional changes are still dominated by internal variability. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models project continued increases (by 50–200 % in a relative sense) in the 21st century in global agricultural drought frequency and area even under low-moderate emissions scenarios, resulting from a decrease in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the sc_PDSI_pm. This flattening is especially pronounced over the Northern Hemisphere land, leading to increased drought frequency even over areas with increasing sc_PDSI_pm. Large differences exist in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-projected precipitation and drought changes over the Sahel and northern Australia due to uncertainties in simulating the African Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the subsidence zone over northern Australia, while the wetting trend over East Africa reflects a robust response of the Indian Ocean ITCZ seen in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. While warming-induced PET increases over all latitudes and precipitation decreases over subtropical land are responsible for mean sc_PDSI_pm decreases, the exact cause of its PDF flattening needs further investigation. 相似文献
1000.
充分利用国家科技部大力推行的DVB-S共享数据平台, 加强气象卫星遥感数据的广泛应用, 特别是发挥卫星垂直探测器 (ATOVS) 资料在我国数值天气预报以及监测重大灾害性天气系统中的作用。该文介绍了基于DVB-S系统的NOAA/ATOVS资料的处理、分析与显示系统的概况及主要功能, 并以2005年7月人们关注的台风“海棠”为个例, 展示了利用该系统在监测和分析台风或强对流天气时的独特优势。该系统的建立, 将解决省、地气象部门不能实时获取ATOVS资料的问题, 并将推动ATOVS资料在气象以及相关部门的实际应用。 相似文献