2013 年汛期ECMWF集合统计量产品的降水预报检验与分析

2013年汛期ECMWF集合预报在江南、四川盆地和华北地区强降水过程中的表现如下：对江南和四川盆地强降水,概率匹配、融合产品、最大值、75%和90%分位数在大雨和暴雨预报中较确定性预报有明显正技巧,融合产品和90%分位数的技巧评分最稳定;对华北地区强降水,仅90%分位数在大雨预报中有一致的正技巧;上述统计量产品的中期预报技巧评分总体要高于短期预报,对四川盆地（华北地区）暖区强降水预报技巧评分总体要高（低）于对该区域锋面强降水预报技巧评分。根据概率匹配和融合产品各自特点,综合二者原理,设计出概率匹配-融合和融合-概率匹配两种新方案。结果显示,在暴雨和大暴雨降水预报中,融合-概率匹配的评分较融合产品有一定提高。     

中国上市公司的时空变化及机制研究

针对在中国地区发展不均衡的态势下,上市公司分布格局时空演变问题,该文对2009-2017年中国大陆各省上市公司的数量和总资产采用Local Moran’s I指数与Getis-Ord Gi*统计量进行研究,分析了中国大陆上市公司的空间分布格局和时间演变趋势,总结出中国上市公司相关指标的高值聚集和高低聚集分布格局、热点区域及其经济辐射能力。并且以北京、上海和广东为热点区域典型代表,从上市公司产业结构和区域经济发展两方面对时空变化机制的成因进行深入探讨。     

基于ETABS的钢筋混凝土框架与楼梯共同工作性能分析

本文利用大型结构分析软件ETABS设计了4种包含和不包含楼梯的钢筋混凝土框架计算模型,分别采用底部剪力法、反应谱法和时程分析法对各模型进行了弹性阶段地震反应特性对比计算分析.结果显示:楼梯参与结构整体计算后,结构出现抗侧刚度明显增加、结构扭转振动显著、梯间框架柱剪力突变等现象;建议结构设计时采用包含楼梯的层间结构计算模型(M-4),使用振型分解反应谱法进行结构抗震分析计算.     

Dynamic Behaviour of a Caisson Quaywall Under Strong Earthquake

—Effective stress analysis is performed to evaluate the residual displacement of a caissonquaywall during 1994 Hokkaido-Toho-Oki Earthquake and 1993 Kushiro-Oki Earthquake.Theconstitutive model used in this study is a multiple shear mechanism type defined in strain space and cantake into account the effect of rotation of principal stress axis.The earthquake accelerations recorded atthe outcropping rock during the earthquake are used as input bedrock motion.The results of finite ele-ment analysis are in good agreement with the observed behaviour of the quaywall.The analysis also indi-cates that liquefaction and high excess pore water pressure have a significant effect on the deformation ofthe caisson.Soil improvement is speculated as the most reliable measures against liquefaction.The influ-ence of soil improvement and the reasonable improved area are discussed in the paper.     

Distribution Characteristics of Effective Source Rocks and Their Control on Hydrocarbon Accumulation: A Case Study from the Dongying Sag, Eastern China

The exploration conducted in the Bohai Bay basin, eastern China has demonstrated that the abundant petroleum resources have close affinities to the hydrocarbon kitchen with rich organic matter. A number of oil-generating associations with various characteristics of organic geochemistry and assemblages of multiple reservoir facies are developed due to the multi-center sedimentation, multi-source supply and multi-cycle evolution of filling, which have resulted in the formation of multiple oil and gas accumulation zones of various layers and trap styles. Among them the Paleogene Shahejie Formation is the most important hydrocarbon accumulation combination in the Dongying sag. Heretofore, its proved reserve has reached nearly 1.8×109t, which accounts for more than 90% of the total proved reserves of the Dongying sag. Based on previous studies, more than 600 source rock samples and 186 crude oil samples of the Shahejie Formation, collected from 30 oilfields, have been treated with organic geochemical testing     

深层砂泥岩储层继承性裂缝发育特征

西部挤压盆地内低渗性含油气砂泥岩储层构造运动期次多、埋藏深度大、泥质夹层多、高角度网状缝继承性发育,裂缝不仅是油气的有效运移通道,也是储层压裂开发效果的主要影响因素。选择西部天山山前某区块深层砂泥岩裂缝性气藏为研究区,以裂缝形成机制的探讨和研究为突破点,在岩心观察、CT层析成像扫描、成像测井解释的基础上,精细统计裂缝产状、开度、充填度,结合流体包裹体及古应力场划分裂缝发育期次,最后总结继承性裂缝的发育模式。研究结果表明,砂泥岩储层裂缝继承性缝的有利发育条件为多期次构造运动、低应力差、低逼近角度、适当泥质含量或低摩擦因数,岩性是内因,构造应力是外因。     

长江口青草沙水库前沿河床演变与失稳风险研究

位于长江口南北港分流口的青草沙水库是上海市最大的城市供水水源地,开展该水库前沿河床稳定性和失稳风险研究具有重要的理论意义和工程指导价值。基于此,利用长江口南北港分流口2000年至2013年期间实测的高精度地形资料,分析青草沙水库前沿河床近期地貌变化特征,为水库库堤安全预警提供相关理论支撑。结果表明:青草沙水库前沿河床冲淤变化在建库前后有明显差异,建库前总体表现为河槽冲刷、沙洲淤积,呈现准冲-淤振荡的性质;建库后变为幅度逐渐减弱的持续冲刷;沿河床河槽形态由U型向U型与V型河槽叠加的复式河槽转变。青草沙水库前沿沙体沿落潮主流方向下移,成形沙体呈先增长、再减少,最后趋于平衡的态势,隐形沙体大体呈减少趋势。青草沙水库库堤前沿近600 m位置是河床失稳的重点风险区域,尤其是水库库堤中上部河床处于不稳定状态,如前沿边坡所在河槽进一步逼近水库前沿,则河床面临进一步冲刷的可能。     

Nautilus矿业公司SMS勘探中采用的取样技术与装备

海底大块状硫化物(SMS)富含铜、锌、铅等金属,特别是富含贵金属金、银,引起了国际采矿业的浓厚兴趣。近年来,以澳大利亚Nautilus矿业公司为先驱代表的国际大型资源开发商和投资商已介入海底多金属硫化物的商业化开采。文中介绍了Nautilus公司在巴布亚新几内亚专属经济区针对海底块状硫化物矿床开展的一系列以商业开采为目的的勘探取样活动,详细介绍了勘探中所采用的基本方法与技术,并重点对其地质调查中所应用的拖网挖掘取样、ROV海底表面取样、大洋钻探船岩芯取样和专门开发的ROV岩芯钻探取样的装备、取样结果及作业效率进行了较为系统全面地介绍。     

Impacts of anthropogenic activities on the Changjiang(Yangtze)estuarine ecosystem(1998–2012)

Estuarine ecosystem has greatly changed in the recent decades due to anthropogenic perturbations in the Changjiang Estuary. Change patterns and impact factors were analyzed based on the continuous data...