Some Aspects of Resource Uncertainty and Their Economic Consequences in Assessment of the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Natural Resources Research - Exploration ventures in frontier areas have high risks. Before committing to them, firms prepare regional resource assessments to evaluate the potential payoffs. With...     

Detection Time for Plausible Changes in Annual Precipitation, Evapotranspiration, and Streamflow in Three Mississippi River Sub-Basins

We use diagnostic studies of off-line variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model simulations of terrestrial water budgets and 21st-century climate change simulations using the parallel climate model (PCM) to estimate the time required to detect predicted changes in annual precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), and discharge (Q) in three sub-basins of the Mississippi River Basin. Time series lengths on the order of 50–350 years are required to detect plausible P, E, and Q trends in the Missouri, Ohio, and Upper Mississippi River basins. Approximately 80–160, 50, and 140–350 years, respectively, are needed to detect the predicted P, E, and Q trends with a high degree of statistical confidence. These detection time estimates are based on conservative statistical criteria (α = 0.05 and β = 0.10) associated with low probability of both detecting a trend when it is not occurring (Type I error) and not detecting a trend when it is occurring (Type II error). The long detection times suggest that global-warming-induced changes in annual basin-wide hydro-climatic variables that may already be occurring in the three basins probably cannot yet be detected at this level of confidence. Furthermore, changes for some variables that may occur within the 21st century might not be detectable for many decades or until the following century – this may or may not be the case for individual recording station data. The long detection times for streamflow result from comparatively low signal-to-noise ratios in the annual time series. Finally, initial estimates suggest that faster detection of acceleration in the hydrological cycle may be possible using seasonal time series of appropriate hydro-climatic variables, rather than annual time series.     

The local far-infrared galaxy colour–luminosity distribution: a reference for BLAST and Herschel/SPIRE submillimetre surveys

We measure the local galaxy far-infrared (FIR) 60 to 100 μm colour–luminosity distribution using an all-sky IRAS survey. This distribution is an important reference for the next generation of FIR–submillimetre surveys that have and will conduct deep extragalactic surveys at 250–500 μm. With the peak in dust-obscured star-forming activity leading to present-day giant ellipticals now believed to occur in submillimetre galaxies near   z ∼ 2.5  , these new FIR–submillimetre surveys will directly sample the spectral energy distributions of these distant objects at rest-frame FIR wavelengths similar to those at which local galaxies were observed by IRAS . We have taken care to correct for the temperature bias and the evolution effects in our IRAS 60-μm-selected sample. We verify that our colour–luminosity distribution is consistent with the measurements of the local FIR luminosity function, before applying it to the higher redshift Universe. We compare our colour–luminosity correlation with recent dust–temperature measurements of submillimetre galaxies and find evidence for pure luminosity evolution of the form  (1 + z )³  . This distribution will be useful for the development of evolutionary models for Balloon-borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope (BLAST) and Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver (SPIRE) surveys as it provides a statistical distribution of the rest-frame dust temperatures for galaxies as a function of luminosity.     

Solar and stellar flares: Questions and problems

Although progress has been made in understanding certain aspects of the physics of solar and stellar flares, there are a number of topics which, in the author's opinion, still pose a problem. We summarize these topics here.     

Petromagnetic and paleomagnetic characterization deposits at Mesozoic/Cenozoic boundary: The Tetritskaro section (Georgia)

Petromagnetic and magnetostratigraphic characteristics are obtained for the Tetritskaro section. The boundary layer at the Mesozoic/Cenozoic (K/T) boundary is fixed primarily by an abrupt rise in the paramagnetic magnetization (total Fe concentration) and, to a lesser degree, by an increase in the concentration of such magnetic minerals as goethite, hemoilmenite, and magnetite. The along-section distribution of titanomagnetite of volcanic origin and metallic iron of cosmic origin does not correlate with the K/T boundary and lithologic properties of the sediments.The boundary of the Mesozoic and Cenozoic geological eras lies within the reversed polarity chron C29r and is marked by an abrupt rise in the geomagnetic field paleointensity and an instability of paleomagnetic directions, rather than by a polarity change. The accumulation time of the boundary clay layer is about 1.5–2 kyr, while abrupt changes in the paleointensity and direction of the geomagnetic field encompass 30–40 kyr. Such long occurrence intervals of the events in question cannot be related to a short-term impact phenomenon.     

Predation on the rocky shores of Patagonia,Argentina

Rocky intertidal communities of Argentinean Patagonia are exposed to harsh physical conditions caused by dry, strong southern trade winds (mean speed 45 km h^-1, gusts up to 140 km h^-1) that result in intense desiccation of intertidal organisms. Predator distributions in these communities were evaluated from April 2003 to December 2004 at two exposed headlands and six protected bays in Cabo dos Bahias (44°50′S, 65°40′W). Crabs and sea stars dominated the predator assemblage, with occasional scavenger snails and fish also present. During low tide, predators were never found in the open but were always associated with shelter (primarily within mussel beds and coralline algae), suggesting a strong predator dependency on foundation species to buffer them from physical stress. Few predators (mostly crabs) emerged from shelter at high tide. Unlike the larger predators found on Chilean rocky shores, invertebrate predators in this system are diminutive, generally < 2 cm. The lone exception was the newly discovered invasive green crab,Carcinus mamas. Feeding trials, gut content analyses, and visual surveys indicated that native predators feed primarily on small, soft-bodied prey.C. mamas fed on slow-moving and sessile animals, including the super abundant musselPerumytilus purpuratus, with much greater voracity than native predators. Because native intertidal organisms are dependent on mussel beds and coralline algae for shelter from desiccation, successful invasion ofC. mamas may lead to a significant decrease in native diversity by consuming foundation species. This study represents a preliminary survey of predator distributions and feeding habits on the rocky shores of Argentinean Patagonia and provides important baseline data to evaluate trophic linkages and predatory effects on Patagonian rocky shores.