Long-term stability of the fish assemblages in a warm-temperate South African estuary

Little is known about long-term changes in estuarine fish populations and related environmental variations. Fishes in the temporarily open/closed East Kleinemonde Estuary were sampled bi-annually, in summer and winter, using seine and gill nets between December 1994 and July 2005. A total of 18 families, represented by 33 species, were recorded. The 10 most abundant species caught were consistently recorded in catches each year, but CPUE of individual species varied on an annual basis and this can often be related to mouth state. Multivariate analyses of the annual marine fish community identified two distinct groups, with more species recorded during years that succeeded spring (September to November) mouth-opening events than in years following no mouth-opening events in spring. Interannual community stability (IMD) and seriation (IMS) also increased from the years following no opening events in spring to the years that succeeded spring opening events. These results highlight the importance of the timing of mouth opening to the marine fish community in a temporarily open/closed estuary. This study reinforces the importance of long-term studies to understanding community changes in estuaries caused by environmental variations over different time scales.     

A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.     

The phase difference effects on 3-D structure of wave pressure acting on a composite breakwater

In designing the coastal structures, the accurate estimation of the wave forces on them is of great importance. In this paper, the influences of the phase difference on wave pressure acting on a composite breakwater installed in the three-dimensional (3-D) wave field are studied numerically. We extend the earlier model [Hur, D.S., Mizutani, N., 2003. Coastal Engineering 47, 329–345] to simulate 3-D wave fields by introducing 3-D Navier–Stokes solver with the Smagorinsky's sub-grid scale (SGS) model. For the validation of the model, the wave field around a 3-D asymmetrical structure installed on a submerged breakwater, in which the complex wave deformations generate, is simulated, and the numerical solutions are compared to the experimental data reported by Hur, Mizutani, Kim [2004. Coastal Engineering (51, 407–420)]. The model is then adopted to investigate 3-D characteristics of wave pressure and force on a caisson of composite breakwater, and the numerical solutions were discussed with respect to the phase difference between harbor and seaward sides induced by the transmitted wave through the rubble mound or the diffraction. The numerical results reveal that wave forces acting on the composite breakwater are significantly different at each cross-section under influence of wave diffraction that is important parameter on 3-D wave interaction with coastal structures.     

Sulfide and iron control on mercury speciation in anoxic estuarine sediment slurries

In order to understand the role of sulfate and Fe(III) reduction processes in the net production of monomethylmercury (MMHg), we amended anoxic sediment slurries collected from the Venice Lagoon, Italy, with inorganic Hg and either potential electron acceptors or metabolic byproducts of sulfate and Fe(III) reduction processes, gradually changing their concentrations. Addition of sulfide (final concentration: 0.2–6.3 mM) resulted in an exponential decrease in the sulfate reduction rate and MMHg concentration with increasing concentrations of sulfide. Based on this result, we argue that the concentration of dissolved sulfide is a critical factor controlling the sulfate reduction rate, and in turn, the net MMHg production at steady state. Addition of either Fe(II) (added concentration: 0–6.1 mM) or Fe(III) (added concentration: 0–3.5 mM) resulted in similar trends in the MMHg concentration, an increase with low levels of Fe additions and a subsequent decrease with high levels of Fe additions. The limited availability of dissolved Hg, associated with sulfide removal by precipitation of FeS, appears to inhibit the net MMHg production in high levels of Fe additions. There was a noticeable reduction in the net MMHg production in Fe(III)-amended slurries as compared to Fe(II)-amended ones, which could be caused by a decrease in the sulfate reduction rate. This agrees with the results of Hg methylation assays using the enrichment cultures of anaerobic bacteria: whereas the enrichment cultures of sulfate reducers showed significant production of MMHg (4.6% of amended Hg), those of Fe(III), Mn(IV), and nitrate reducers showed no production of MMHg. It appears that enhanced Fe(III)-reduction activities suppress the formation of MMHg in high sulfate estuarine sediments.     

Network analysis to inform invasive species spread among lakes

Often facilitated by human-mediated pathways,aquatic invasive species are a threat to the health and biodiversity of global ecosystems.We present a novel approach incorporating survey data of watercraft movement in a social network analysis to reconstruct potential pathways of aquatic invasive species spread between lakes.As an example,we use the green alga Nitellopsis obtusa,also known as starry stonewort,an aquatic invasive species affecting the Great Lakes region in the United States and Canada.The movement of algal fragments via human-mediated pathways(i.e.,watercraft)has been hypothesized as the primary driver of starry stonewort invasion.We used survey data collected at boat ramps during the 2013 and 2014 openwater seasons to describe the flow of watercraft from Lake Koronis,where N.obtusa was first detected in Minnesota,to other lakes in the state.Our results suggest that the risk of N.obtusa expansion is not highly constrained by geographic proximity and management efforts should consider highly connected lakes.Estimating human movement via network analysis may help to explain past and future routes of aquatic invasive species infestation between lakes and can improve evidence-based prevention and control efforts.     

Network analysis to inform invasive species spread among lakes

Often facilitated by human-mediated pathways,aquatic invasive species are a threat to the health and biodiversity of global ecosystems.We present a novel approach incorporating survey data of watercraft movement in a social network analysis to reconstruct potential pathways of aquatic invasive species spread between lakes.As an example,we use the green alga Nitellopsis obtusa,also known as starry stonewort,an aquatic invasive species affecting the Great Lakes region in the United States and Canada.The movement of algal fragments via human-mediated pathways(i.e.,watercraft)has been hypothesized as the primary driver of starry stonewort invasion.We used survey data collected at boat ramps during the 2013 and 2014 openwater seasons to describe the flow of watercraft from Lake Koronis,where N.obtusa was first detected in Minnesota,to other lakes in the state.Our results suggest that the risk of N.obtusa expansion is not highly constrained by geographic proximity and management efforts should consider highly connected lakes.Estimating human movement via network analysis may help to explain past and future routes of aquatic invasive species infestation between lakes and can improve evidence-based prevention and control efforts.     

Explicit stress–strain equations for modeling frictional materials

In this paper, a comprehensive study on simulating the shearing behavior of frictional materials is performed. A set of two explicit equations, describing the relationship among the shear stress ratio and the distortional strain and the volumetric strain, are formulated independently. The equations contain three stress parameters and three strain parameters and another parameter representing the nonuniformity of stress and strain during softening. All the parameters have clear physical significance and can be determined experimentally. It is demonstrated that the proposed equations have the capacity of simulating the complicated shearing behavior of many types of frictional materials including geomaterials. The proposed equations are used to simulate the stress–strain behavior for 27 frictional materials with 98 tests. These materials include soft and stiff clays in both reconstituted and structured states, silicon sands and calcareous sands, silts, compacted fill materials, volcanic soils, decomposed granite soils, cemented soils (both artificially and naturally cemented), partially saturated soils, ballast, rocks, reinforced soils, tire chips, sugar, wheat, and rapeseed. It has been demonstrated that the proposed explicit constitutive equations have the capacity to capture accurately the shearing behavior of frictional materials both qualitatively and quantitatively. A study on model parameters has been performed.     

Study on Ship Automatic Berthing System with Mooring Lines

This study describes an automatic berthing system with mooring lines. It is designed to be berthed by using mooring device on the upper deck of a ship. It is to berth once maintaining parallel with the quay by controlling both forward and aft breast lines. Berthing method is used through length adjustment of mooring lines connected between ship and quay by controlling the angular velocity and the torque of hydraulic motor in mooring device. The study is conducted under three changing conditions of draft, such as even-keel, rise of the gravity center and trim to stern. Variables affecting berthing stability are determined based on the control performance of each condition. Bond graphs method is used to model the system. Controller is designed as PID control method of reference-model algorithm. The control program is composed of synchronous control system based on the equations derived with the numerical analysis. The tank test is conducted to verify the usefulness of the control program.