Seasonal snowline instability in an energy balance model

The stability properties of a seasonal, one dimensional energy balance climate model are examined. The model contains idealized landsea geography, an interactive moving snowline and high space-time resolution. For a polar land cap surrounded by ocean we find a bifurcation in the seasonal cycle solutions as a function of solar constant leading to qualitatively different climate regimes: one with continental snow-free summers and the other with perennial snow cover over a large area surrounding the pole. In the parameterspace neighborhood of a bifurcation an infinitesimal change in any radiation budget parameter can cause the transition from one state to the other. Of special interest to those planning more elaborate numerical experiments (GCMs) is the result that 10s of seasonal cycles may be necessary for the model to damp out transient effects before settling upon a repeating seasonal cycle if parameter values are such that the solution is near a bifurcation. This latter finding is unexpected, since the longest time scale in the linear version of the energy balance model is about 5 years.     

Factors and characteristics of the spatial correlation of the annual runoff of the Upper Ob basin rivers

The main features of the spatial and temporal oscillations of the annual runoff of the rivers in the Upper Ob basin, which is characterized by various landscape and hydrologic conditions, are discussed. It is found that the coefficients of pair correlation of the annual runoff have been decreasing since the late 1990s-early 2000s. Correlation functions for mountain areas should be constructed separately for river basins ranked according to the prevailing type of river feed. The coefficients of pair correlation can be described by multiple regression equations, which, apart from the distance between the centers of gravity of the basins, may include landscape characteristics such as the difference in their average elevation and forest cover.     

Review of Lagrangian stochastic models for trajectories in the turbulent atmosphere

We review the theoretical basis for, and the advantages of, random flight models for the trajectories of tracer particles in turbulence. We then survey their application to calculate dispersion in the principal types of atmospheric turbulence (stratified, vertically-inhomogeneous, Gaussian or non-Gaussian turbulence in the surface layer and above), and show that they are especially suitable for some problems (e.g., quantifying ground emissions).     

Incorporation of planetary boundary layer dynamics in a numerical model of long-range air-pollutant transport

In this paper, measurements of the first 150 m of the atmospheric boundary layer obtained by a high-frequency acoustic mini-sounder are compared with measurements obtained by a full complement of instruments including sonic anemometers mounted on the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory tower. The acoustic mini-sounder, starting as low as 6 m from the ground, measures in the monostatic mode the profiles of the vertical wind speed, w, and of the temperature structure parameter, C _T ² with enhanced height resolution of the order of 1 m and time resolution of the order of 30 s. The results of the comparison show that the high-frequency mini-sounder is an effective atmospheric boundary-layer profiler that is also portable and relatively inexpensive. Measurements of the spectrum of C _T ² are presented that provide information on the local isotropy of the temperature field. Statistics of the variability of C _T ² in both stable and unstable conditions are also given. The sounder's capabilities are further demonstrated by some detailed observations of the structure and time evolution of a thermal plume root at noon and of a nocturnal, stably stratified layer in which a dynamic instability develops. The plume starts at a height of less than 5 m, possesses substantial internal structure, and includes vertical velocities in excess of 2 m s^-1.     

Fluid fluxes during low-temperature alteration: implications of multi-style alteration assemblages from the Welsh Borderland,UK

Localized (domainal) low-temperature alteration may indicate variations in the chemistry of alteration fluids and/or discrete fluid flow paths during metamorphism. Occurrences of epidote- and pumpellyite-dominated domains are often used as evidence for large fluxes of Ca-rich fluids. However, comparative studies of two domainal alteration styles from basaltic to andesitic lavas and volcaniclastic rocks at Builth Wells, Wales, UK suggest that such interpretations cannot be applied universally. Here, only one set of domains can be attributed to large fluxes of Ca-rich fluids. In contrast, the second set of domains formed where the host rock supplied the necessary Ca, and fluid/rock ratios were relatively low. These domains are hosted by rocks which show a Caledonian regional metamorphic imprint, characterized by the alteration assemblage albite+chlorite+titanite±prehnite±pumpellyite±calcite±muscovite±quartz (considered to have formed at c. 200°C and ≤2.5 kbar). Type 1 domains lie along fluid channelways, such as veins. Pumpellyite is the dominant secondary mineral, but the alteration assemblage is variable with pumpellyite±prehnite±calcite±titanite±chlorite (±quartz). The domains formed at temperatures of 130–230°C during Ordovician hydrothermal activity, before the peak of regional metamorphism. In contrast, Type 2 domains are not associated with obvious fluid channelways. A central prehnite-dominated zone typically has a rim with the assemblage pumpellyite+calcite±prehnite±chlorite±titanite±K-rich phyllosilicate. These domains probably formed from pelitic xenoliths which contained a volcaniclastic component at temperatures of 130–230°C and at relatively low fluid/rock ratios. However, the timing of domain formation is uncertain. Pyrobitumen, in veins and disseminated throughout the rock, may have influenced the formation of both types of domain by stabilizing pumpellyite in preference to epidote and causing metamorphic calcite formation through the release of CO₂ to the alteration fluids. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic observations at an overstep of the western North Anatolian Fault (Abant–Sapanca region, Turkey)

The course of the active North Anatolian Fault system from Lake Abant to Lake Sapanca was traced by its high micro-earthquake activity. If approaching from the east this section includes a broad south to north overstep (fault offset) of the main fault. Local seismicity has been recorded in this area by a semi-permanent network of 8 stations since 1985 within the frame of the Turkish–German Joint Project for Earthquake Research. The effect of the overstep and its complex fracture kinematics are reflected by the seismicity distribution, the variations of composite fault-plane solutions, and by the spatial coda-Q distribution. Areas of different stress orientation can be distinguished and assigned to different groups of faults. The stresses and the tectonic pattern only in part correspond to a simple model of an extensional overstep and its correlative pull-apart basin. Other types of deformation involved are characterized by normal faulting on faults parallel to the general course of the main strike-slip fault and by synthetic strike-slip faults oriented similar to Riedel shears. Shear deformation by this fault group widely distributed in an area north and east of the main fault line may play an important role in the evolution of the overstep. The development of a pull-apart basin is inhibited along the eastern half of the overstep and compatibility of both strands of the main fault (Bolu–Lake Abant and Lake Sapanca– Izmit–Marmara Sea) seems to be achieved with the aid of the fault systems mentioned. The extension of the missing part of the pull-apart basin seems to be displaced to positions remote from the Lake Abant–Lake Sapanca main fault line, i.e. to the Akyaz?–Düzce basin tract. Highest Q-values (lowest attenuation of seismic waves) were found in the zone of highest seismicity north and west of the overstep which is the zone of strongest horizontal tension. If high coda-Q is an indicator for strong scattering of seismic waves it might be related to extensional opening of fractures.     

Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India

Extreme climate and weather events are increasingly being recognized as key aspects of climate change. Pre-monsoon season (March–May) is the hottest part of the year over almost the entire South Asian region, in which hot weather extremes including heat waves are recurring natural hazards having serious societal impacts, particularly on human health. In the present paper, recent trends in extreme temperature events for the pre-monsoon season have been studied using daily data on maximum and minimum temperatures over a well-distributed network of 121 stations for the period 1970–2005. For this purpose, time series of extreme temperature events have been constructed for India as a whole and seven homogeneous regions, viz., Western Himalaya (WH), Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE), North Central (NC), East coast (EC), West coast (WC) and Interior Peninsula (IP).     

Evidence from Ar/Ar Ages of Individual Hornblende Grains for Varying Laurentide Sources of Iceberg Discharges 22,000 to 10,500 yr B.P.

The abundance and lithic content of ice rafted detritus in glacial North Atlantic sediment cores vary abruptly on millennial time scales that have been correlated to Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles in the Greenland ice cores. There is growing evidence that various ice sheet outlets contributed increased iceberg fluxes at multiple discrete intervals, and the relative timing of iceberg discharges from different sources is important for understanding interactions between oceans and ice sheets. We present a provenance study based on ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates of individual hornblende grains from 20 samples taken at 600 to 700 yr spacing between 10,500 and 22,000 yr B.P., from Orphan Knoll core EW9303-GGC31. Heinrich layers are characterized by a dominant Paleoproterozoic hornblende provenance consistent with published studies. A change in provenance between Heinrich events H2 and H1 indicates contributions of iceberg calving from the Newfoundland and southern Labrador margins. Between H1 and the Younger Dryas interval, Paleoproterozoic ice rafted grains remained dominant. The dominance of Baffin Island (or Greenland?) sources to the ice rafted detritus is ascribed to the retreat of the southern Laurentide ice sheet at about the time of H1—a retreat that isolated Newfoundland and southern Labrador ice from the shelf-slope boundary.     

ENSO,the IOD and the intraseasonal prediction of heat extremes across Australia using POAMA-2

The simulation and prediction of extreme heat over Australia on intraseasonal timescales in association with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is assessed using the Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). The analysis is based on hindcasts over 1981–2010 and focuses on weeks 2 and 3 of the forecasts, i.e. beyond a typical weather forecast. POAMA simulates the observed increased probabilities of extreme heat during El Niño events, focussed over south eastern and southern Australia in SON and over northern Australia in DJF, and the decreased probabilities of extreme heat during La Niña events, although the magnitude of these relationships is smaller than observed. POAMA also captures the signal of increased probabilities of extreme heat during positive phases of the IOD across southern Australia in SON and over Western Australia in JJA, but again underestimates the strength of the relationship. Shortcomings in the simulation of extreme heat in association with ENSO and the IOD over southern Australia may be linked to deficiencies in the teleconnection with Indian Ocean SSTs. Forecast skill for intraseasonal episodes of extreme heat is assessed using the Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index. Skill is highest over northern Australia in MAM and JJA and over south-eastern and eastern Australia in JJA and SON, whereas skill is generally poor over south-west Western Australia. Results show there are windows of forecast opportunity related to the state of ENSO and the IOD, where the skill in predicting extreme temperatures over certain regions is increased.     

Narrowband vegetation indexes and detection of disease damage in soybeans

A portable narrowband spectroradiometer was used to detect sclerotinia stem rot infection, caused by the fungus Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in soybeans. Increasing levels of fungal inoculum were used to cause a gradient of disease infection in the field. Canopy reflectance measured in narrowband R/sub 675/-R/sub 685/ and broadband R/sub 635/-R/sub 685/ could estimate 86% of the variation in soybean plants damage measured by a count of early dead plants. Plant damage was also associated with the chlorophyll absorption in reflectance and the normalized pigment chlorophyll vegetation indexes, showing a loss of chlorophyll pigment compared to healthy plants. A new field approach is suggested for the investigation of plant damage with narrowband spectroradiometry.