Decoupled kinematics of two neighbouring permafrost creeping landforms in the Eastern Italian Alps

An overall acceleration of rock glacier displacement rates in the Alps has been observed in recent decades, with several cases of destabilization leading to potential geomorphological hazards. This behaviour has been attributed to the rising permafrost temperature, induced by atmospheric warming and regulated by thermo-hydrological processes. Landforms derived from the interaction of glacier remnants and permafrost are widespread in mountain areas, but are less studied and monitored than talus rock glaciers. This work presents a comparative study of a talus rock glacier and a glacial-permafrost composite landform (GPCL) in the Eastern Italian Alps. The two landforms are only 10 km apart, but have rather different elevation ranges and main slope aspects. The kinematics and ground thermal conditions were monitored from 2001 to 2015 along with geomorphological surveys, analyses of historical maps and remote sensing data. The dynamic behaviour of the rock glacier was similar to the majority of monitored rock glaciers in the Alps, with an acceleration after 2008 and a velocity peak in 2015. In contrast, the GPCL had a nearly unchanged displacement rate during the observation period. Statistical analyses of kinematic vs. nivo-meteorological variables revealed a dynamic decoupling of the two landforms after 2008 that corresponds with increased winter snow accumulation. Although the kinematics of both landforms respond to ground surface temperature variations, the collected evidence suggests a different reaction of ground surface temperature to variations in the precipitation regime. This different reaction is likely due to local topo-climatic conditions that affect snow redistribution by wind. The different reactions of the two systems to the same climatic forcing is likely a legacy of their different origins. GPCL dynamics result from interaction of permafrost and residual glacial dynamics that are associated with possible peculiarities in the internal/basal meltwater circulation, whose future response is uncertain and requires improved understanding. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A design procedure for buildings equipped with energy dissipation devices using nonclassical damping and iso-performance curves

This article describes a design procedure for elastic buildings equipped with linear and nonlinear energy dissipating devices. The objective is to achieve a design that responds to a target building performance following a simple and robust step-by-step algorithm. The proposed procedure identifies first the modal significance of key design performance indicators and controls the modal properties by solving a singular two-parameter eigenvalue problem. For that purpose, a new modal significance metric is proposed, and a target frequency shift and damping ratio for the complete structure are obtained from the so-called iso-performance design curves. The design algorithm employs linear-equivalent stiffness and damping properties, which are then transformed into parameters characterizing inelastic force-deformation constitutive models corresponding to physical devices. The design algorithm leads to an optimal damper distribution corresponding to the minimum global amount of supplemental equivalent damping needed to achieve a maximum modal perturbation. The design procedure is first demonstrated using a five-story building example and then a real and complex 22-story free-plan building with two towers of rhomboid-shape plan with a very singular dynamic behavior.     

Does wetland watershed land use influence amphibian larval development? A relevant effect of agriculture on biota

Agriculture practices have been widely proposed as the major cause of amphibian population decline. However, the majority of these results have been based on laboratory experiments. The present study was conducted to test the repercussion of wetland sediment provenance on amphibian larval development. Bufo bufo larvae were used in two different treatments in an outdoor experiment, the first one using sediment from one wetland surrounded by intensive agricultural practices, and the second using sediment with no record of agrochemical uses. A negative effect was observed in the agricultural treatment, from subcellular to individual level. The results showed that the sediment from agricultural practices watershed generates a reduction in survival. Furthermore, individuals that developed under this treatment showed a lower total length and a delay in the time necessary to complete metamorphosis; these features are connected with recruitment success. In the same way, biochemical analysis showed high values of lipid peroxidation in metamorphs developing in sediments from an agricultural area. Finally, the results obtained highlight the importance of considering the sediments, not only the water, as origin treatment, allowing us to understand the consequences on amphibian populations that inhabit areas affected by intensive agriculture.

     

Spatial modelling of deforestation in Romanian Carpathian Mountains using GIS and Logistic Regression

Deforestation process represents a wide concern mainly in the mountain environments due to its role in global warming, biodiversity loss, land degradation and natural hazards occurrence. Thus, the present study is focused on the largest afforested landform unit of Romania and, consequently, the most affected area by forest losses: Carpathian Mountains. The main goal of the paper is to examine and analyze the various explanatory variables associated with deforestation process and to model the probability of deforestation using GIS spatial analysis and logistic regression. The forest cover for 1990 and 2012, derived from CORINE Land Cover(CLC) database, were used to quantify historical forest cover change included in the modelling. To explain the biophysical and anthropogenic effects, this study considered several explanatory factors related to local topography, forest cover pattern, accessibility, urban growth and population density. Using ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristic) and 500 controlling sampling points, the statistical and spatial validations were assessed in order to evaluate the performance of the resulted data. The analysis showed that the area experienced a continuous forest cover change, leading to the loss of over 250,000 ha of forested area during the period 1990–2012. The most significant influence of the explanatory factors of deforestation were noticed in case of distance to forest edge(β=–4.215), forest fragmentation(β=2.231), slope declivity(β=–1.901), elevation(β=1.734) and distance to roads(β=–1.713). The statistical and spatial validation indicates a good accuracy of the model with reasonably AUC(0.736) and Kappa(0.739) values. The model's results suggest an intensification of the deforestation process in the area, designing numerous new clusters with high probability in the Apuseni Mountains, northern and central part of the Eastern Carpathians, western part of the Southern Carpathians and northern part of the Banat Mountains. The study could represent a useful outcome to identify the forests more vulnerable to logging and to adopt appropriate policies and decisions in forest management and conservation. In addition, the resulted probability map could be used in other studies in order to investigate potential environmental implications(e.g. geomorphological hazards or impact on biodiversity and landscape diversity).     

Editorial Appreciation

Solar Physics - Synoptic maps of solar EUV intensities have been constructed for many decades in order to display the distribution of the different EUV emissions across the solar surface, with each...     

Criteria for recognizing shelf-slope clinoforms in outcrop; Jurassic Lajas and Los Molles formations,S. Neuquén Basin,Argentina

Seismic-reflection data show that most deepwater (>200 m water depth) basins are filled by sand and mud dispersed across clinoformal geometries characterized by gently dipping topsets, steeper foresets and gently dipping bottomsets. However, the entire geometry of these ubiquitous clinoforms is not always recognized in outcrops. Sometimes the infill is erroneously interpreted as “layer cake” or “ramp” stratigraphy because the topset-foreset-bottomset clinoforms are not well exposed. Regional 2-D seismic lines show clinoforms in the Lower to Middle Jurassic Challaco, Lajas, and Los Molles formations in S. Neuquén Basin in Argentina. Time equivalent shelf, slope and basin-floor segments of clinoforms are exposed, and can be walked out in hundreds of metres thick and kilometres-wide outcrops. The studied margin-scale clinoforms are not representing a continental-margin but a deepwater shelf margin that built out in a back-arc basin. Lajas-Los Molles clinoforms have been outcrop-mapped by tracing mudstones interpreted as flooding surfaces on the shelf and abandonment surfaces (low sedimentation rate) in the deepwater basin. The downslope and lateral facies variability in the outcrops is also consistent with a clinoform interpretation. The Lajas topset (shelf) is dominated by fluvial and tidal deposits. The shelf-edge rollover zone is occasionally occupied by a 40–50-m-thick coarse-grained shelf-edge delta, sometimes incising into the underlying slope mudstones, producing oblique clinoforms expressing toplap erosion on seismic. A muddy transgressive phase capping the shelf-edge deltas contains tidal sandbodies. Shelf-edge deltas transition downslope into turbidite- and debris flow-filled channels that penetrate down the mud-prone Los Molles slope. At the base-of-slope, some 300m below the shelf edge, there are basin-floor fan deposits (>200 m thick) composed of sandy submarine-fan lobes separated by muddy abandonment intervals. The large-scale outcrop correlation between topset–foreset–bottomset allows facies and depositional interpretation and sets outcrop criteria recognition for each clinoform segment.     

The changing Patagonian landscape: Erosion and westward sediment transfer paths in northern Patagonia during the Middle and Late Pleistocene

Pleistocene glaciations have promoted important landscape transformations as a result of high rates of erosion and rapid sediment evacuation to adjacent marine basins. In the Patagonian Andes the role of the Patagonian Ice Sheet on landscape evolution, in particular the spatial patterns of glacial erosion and its influence on sediment fluxes, is poorly documented. Here, we investigate the Middle and Late Pleistocene sedimentary record of the continental slope from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 861, offshore Patagonia (46°S), to evaluate the link between glaciations, mountain range erosion and continental margin strata formation. Petrographic analysis of the sand-size fraction (0.063–2 mm) and ɛNd and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr measurements in the silt-size fraction (10–63 µm) indicate that glacial erosion over the last 350,000 years has focused within the Patagonian Batholith, with a minor influence of a proximal source to the drilling site, the Chonos Metamorphic Complex. This shows that erosion has focused in the core of the northern Patagonian Andes, coinciding roughly with the location of the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone and the zone of concentrated precipitation during glaciations, suggesting a combined climatic and structural control on glacial erosion. Temporal variation in the provenance signal is contemporaneous with a marked change in the stratigraphy of ODP Site 861 that occurred after the glaciation of MIS 8 (~240 kyr ago). Before MIS 8, a restricted provenance signal and coarse lithofacies accumulated on the continental slope indicates spatially restricted erosion and efficient transfer of sediment towards the ocean. In contrast, very high provenance variability and finer continental slope lithofacies accumulation after MIS 8 suggest a disorganized expansion of the areas under erosion and a more distal influence of ice sediment discharge to this site. We argue that this change may have been related to a re-organization of the drainage patterns of the Patagonian Ice Sheet and flow of outlet glaciers to the continental margin during the last two glaciations.     

Dynamics Behind Cycles and Co-movements in Metal Prices: An Empirical Study Using Band-Pass Filters

After living one of the most intense metal price cycles, several ongoing macroeconomic phenomena with the potential of structurally redefining the long-run supply and demand for metals, and raising divergency regarding where the metal prices are trending, it is suitable to evaluate the dynamics in the metal prices, especially focus on the long cyclical components. This article studies in detail the cyclical components of the real prices of base metals, iron ore, and gold, applying band-pass filters and a novel decomposition over time series with length as far as 1800. The main findings are: (1) the long cyclical components in real prices are highly correlated among them and with the proposed long economic cycles, (2) short and medium cyclical components are more relevant in explaining the price deviations from their trend, but the long cyclical component is not negligible, (3) co-movement in base metals is strong for all the cyclical components, but decreasing as cyclical frequency increases, and (4) prices are either sideways or upward-trending depending on the assumptions for correction of the US Consumer Price Index, which suggests that the supply side of these industries, in the best case, only offset the cost increases by depletion.

     

Place cookies and setting spiders in dream cartography

This article contributes to understanding the difference between objective space and subjective place. New data models and visual methods, which make possible the comparison between dream settings, are necessary to an exploratory analysis of dreams. The subjective perception of settings is decomposed by studying dream reports, by applying a survey, and by considering related scientific literature. This leads to the construction of two data models, which are applied in dream cartography. The place cookie model features the dreamer's familiarity with the setting, being visualized in the form of concentric circles. The setting spider model is based on 26 variables, extensively characterizing the setting. These are grouped into eight factors, and visualized in a compact radar chart with eight “legs.” As a superordinate system of the setting spider, the event spider is developed, describing the whole dream scene. The proposed models and visualization methods can be transferred for real‐life events (settings).     

Long-range dependence in the runoff time series of the most important Patagonian river draining to the Pacific Ocean

The Baker River is the largest free-flowing river in Chilean Patagonia. Long-range dependence (LRD), a recognised hydrological property of river runoff worldwide, was detected for the Baker River runoff time series. Analyses were conducted on a monthly scale between 1961 and 2015 using the fractal and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis methodology. A long-range-dependent Hurst coefficient (H) equal to 0.94 was obtained. A scaling range, which is the signature of LRD, was detected for the Baker River runoff time series between 1 and 5.25 years. Baker River runoff showed a strong correlation (r?=?0.96) with the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) Index during the 2007–2015 period. The high storage capacity of Lake General Carrera, the size of the Baker River basin area and the dynamics of AAO are proposed as main factors that contribute to the emergence of LRD in the Baker River runoff time series.