Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century: II. Constraints on Future Supply

Supplying worldwide demand of metallic raw materials throughout the rest of this century may require 5–10 times the amount of metals contained in known ore deposits. This demand can be met only if mineral deposits containing the required masses of metals, in excess of present day ore reserves, exist in the Earth’s crust. It is, by definition, not known whether or not such mineral deposits exist. On the basis of the statistical distribution of metal tonnages contained in known ore deposits, however, it is possible to place constraints on the size distribution of the deposits that must be discovered in order to meet the expected demand. A nondimensional analysis of the distribution of metal tonnages in deposits of 20 metals shows that most of them follow distributions that, although not strictly lognormal, share important characteristics with a lognormal distribution. Chief among these is the observation that frequency falls off symmetrically and geometrically with deposit size, relative to a median deposit size that is approximately equal to the geometric mean deposit size. An immediate consequence of this behavior is that most of the metal endowment is concentrated in deposits that are several orders of magnitude larger than the median deposit size, and that are much rarer than the most common deposits that cluster around the median deposit size. The analysis reveals remarkable similarities among the statistical distributions of most of the metals included in this study, in particular, the fact that distribution of most metals can be fully described with essentially the same value (about 2–3) of the scale parameter, σ, which is the only parameter needed to describe the behavior of a normalized lognormal variable. This observation makes it possible to derive the following general conclusions, which are applicable to most metals—both scarce and abundant. First, it is unlikely that undiscovered mineral deposits of sizes comparable to those that contain most of the known metal endowment exist in sufficient quantities to supply the expected worldwide demand throughout the rest of this century. Second, if the expected demand is to be met, one must hope that very large deposits, perhaps up to one order of magnitude larger than the largest known deposits, exist in accessible portions of the Earth’s crust, and that these deposits are discovered.     

Predicting twenty-first century recession of architectural limestone in European cities

Cities of the twenty-first century will expose buildings to environments that are quite different from those experienced over preceding periods. The recent reduction in sulfur dioxide in cities and continued pressure to lower the emissions of combustion generated pollutants creates a potential for climate induced deterioration, by contrast, to be more important. Given that climate will likely change over the next hundred years, recession rates of calcareous stones have been predicted for Oviedo (Spain), Paris and Prague over the period 1981–2099. This can give guidance as to the likely change in balance of future threat. The Lipfert, ICP, and MULTI-ASSESS functions were used to calculate recession from estimates of climate and air quality. It is likely that under a continued decline or stable levels of pollution, recession rates having reached low values will remain largely unchanged over the coming century, despite likely changes in climate. Although the functions adopted disagree in a quantitative sense, there is evidence that they were reasonably concordant in the last decades of the twentieth century. In a cleaner future their different underlying assumptions lead to poorer agreement.     

Polyphase metamorphism in the eastern Carnic Alps (N Italy–S Austria): clay minerals and conodont Colour Alteration Index evidence

Thermal evolution of the Palaeozoic–Triassic sequences of the Carnic Alps has been characterized by b cell dimension and Kübler Index (illite “crystallinity”) of K-white micas (KI), árkai Index (AI) of chlorites, clay mineral assemblages and conodont Colour Alteration Index (CAI). Data indicate at least two metamorphic events, Variscan and Alpine. In the older event high anchizonal conditions predominated although epizonal conditions were reached over wide areas. It was characterized by low-intermediate pressure facies. The thermal peak was mainly due to an extensional regime during the Bashkirian. A younger thermal overprint generated by Alpine orogeny was of lower grade, reaching high diagenetic–anchizonal conditions characterized by high-pressure facies. Inverted metamorphic patterns are associated with middle to late Miocene thrusting. Hydrothermal alteration in the northern part of the region can be linked with emplacement of Oligocene plutons and high heat flow along the Periadratic lineament. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Digital thermal monitoring of the Amazon forest: an intercomparison of satellite and reanalysis products

Remote sensing and climate digital products have become increasingly available in recent years. Access to these products has favored a variety of Digital Earth studies, such as the analysis of the impact of global warming over different biomes. The study of the Amazon forest response to drought has recently received particular attention from the scientific community due to the occurrence of extreme droughts and anomalous warming over the last decade. This paper focuses on the differences observed between surface thermal anomalies obtained from remote sensing moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and climatic (ERA-Interim) monthly products over the Amazon forest. With a few exceptions, results show that the spatial pattern of standardized anomalies is similar for both products. In terms of absolute anomalies, the differences between the two products show a bias near to zero with a standard deviation of around 0.2?K, although the differences can be up to 1?K over particular regions and months. Despite this general agreement, the proper filtering of MODIS daily values in order to construct a new monthly product showed a dramatic reduction in the number of reliable pixels during the rainy season, while for the dry season this reduction is only seen in Northern Amazonia.