川西南及邻区地震短临预测的实践与思考

在简介川西南及邻区地震地质和历史强震活动的基础上,通过重点梳理部分典型地震短临预测实例,介绍了地方政府对防震减灾、地震预报工作的重视和支持,对工作中的一些实际问题进行了思考,供同行们讨论与参考。     

Biaxial test simulations using a packing of polygonal particles

The mechanical response of cohesionless granular materials under monotonic loading is studied by performing molecular dynamic simulations. The diversity of shapes of soil grains is modelled by using randomly generated convex polygons as granular particles. Results of the biaxial test obtained for dense and loose media show that samples achieve the same void ratio at large strains independent of their initial density state. This limit state resembles the so‐called critical state of soil mechanics, except for some stress fluctuations, which remain for large deformations. These fluctuations are studied at the micro‐mechanical level, by following the evolution of the co‐ordination number, force chains and the fraction of the sliding contacts of the sample. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of galvanic distortions on the series and parallel magnetotelluric impedances and comparison with other responses

The series and parallel impedances of the magnetotelluric tensor are appraised in relation to their relative immunity to galvanic electric distortions. The distorted responses are modeled using the Groom-Bailey decomposition of the tensor in terms of twist, shear, statics and strike direction. These four parameters and the undistorted responses are normally considered as unknowns, and are obtained from field data through the solution of an inverse problem. In the present work we use the decomposition as a forward model to simulate distorted sounding curves. Starting with undistorted 2-d te and tm responses, the tensor is distorted by assuming arbitrary values of twist, shear, static and strike direction. By default, both series and parallel responses are immune to the strike direction because they are invariants under rotation. In addition, series responses are immune to twist and shear and parallel responses only to twist. The dependence of the latter on shear is in the form of a real factor that shifts downwards the amplitude curves. On the other hand, the effect of statics on both series and parallel responses is more complicated than that on the impedance tensor because it cannot be accounted for by a simple shift of the curves. On the whole, there is a positive balance on the part of the series and parallel impedances over the te and tm responses because some of the distortions are filtered out by the invariants. It is shown that invariance is not sufficient to be immune to any of the distortions. The example chosen is Eggers’ eigenvalues, which are immune only to the by-the-fault strike direction. Invariance is not necessary either, as evidenced by the phase tensor, whose elements depend on strike but are immune to all distortions. The derivations are illustrated using soundings from the synthetic coprod2s1 and field-recorded coprod2 and bc87 data sets.     

西沙群岛龙介虫科两新种

龙介虫科Serpulidae的盘管虫Hydroides栖于石灰质管内,又名石灰虫,营附着生活，是有害附着生物之一。它们大量附着在船底,影响航行速度;附着在软体动物的重要养殖种类(珍珠贝、鲍、牡蛎等)的贝売上面,影响贝类生长,危害贝类养殖事业。因此,进行龙介虫科分类,生态的研究,可为有害生物的防除工作提供基本资料。 1956年和1975年,中国科学院海洋研究所在我国西沙群岛考察时,在永兴岛和珊瑚岛采到龙介虫科,盘管虫属两个新种,描述如下：     

Kriging of water levels in the Souss aquifer,Morocco

Universal kriging is applied to water table data from the Souss aquifer in central Morocco. The procedure accounts for the spatial variability of the phenomenon to be mapped. With the use of measured elevations of the water table, an experimental variogram is constructed that characterizes the spatial variability of the measured water levels. Spherical and Gaussian variogram models are alternatively used to fit the experimental variogram. The models are used to develop contour maps of water table elevations and corresponding estimation variances. The estimation variances express the reliability of the kriged water table elevation maps. Universal kriging also provides a contour map of the expected elevation of the water table (drift). The differences between the expected and measured water table elevations are called residuals from the drift. Residuals from the drift are compared with residuals obtained by more traditional least-squares analysis.     

Effects of temperature and salinity on survival,growth and DNA methylation of juvenile Pacific abalone,Haliotis discus hannai Ino

Temperature and salinity are two of the most potent abiotic factors infl uencing marine mollusks.In this study,we investigated the individual and combined ef fects of temperature and salinity on the survival and growth of juvenile Pacifi c abalone,Haliotis discus hannai Ino,and also examined the DNA methylation alteration that may underpin the phenotypic variation of abalone exposed to dif ferent rearing conditions.The single-factor data showed that the suitable ranges of temperature and salinity were 16–28°C at a constant salinity of 32,and 24–40 at a constant temperature of 20°C,respectively.The two-factor data indicated that both survival and growth were signifi cantly af fected by temperature,salinity and their interaction.The optimal temperature-salinity combination for juveniles was 23–25°C and 30–36.To explore environment-induced DNA methylation alteration,the methylation-sensitive amplifi ed polymorphism(MSAP)technique was used to analyze the genomic methylation profi les of abalone reared in optimal and adverse conditions.Neither temperature nor salinity induced evident changes in the global methylation level,but 67 and 63 dif ferentially methylated loci were identifi ed in temperature and salinity treatments,respectively.The between-group eigen analysis also showed that both temperature and salinity could induce epigenetic dif ferentiation in H.discus hannai Ino.The results of our study provide optimal rearing conditions for juvenile H.discus hannai Ino,and represent the fi rst step toward revealing the epigenetic regulatory mechanism of abalone in response to thermal and salt stresses.     

The effect of expansion ratio on the critical Reynolds number in single fracture flow with sudden expansion

Flow in a single fracture (SF) is an important research subject in groundwater hydrology, hydraulic engineering, radioactive nuclear waste repository and geotechnical engineering. An abruptly changing aperture is a unique type of SF. This study discusses the relation between the values of the critical Reynolds number (Re_c) for the onset of symmetry breaking of flow and the expansion ratio (E) of SF, which is defined as the ratio between the outlet (D) and inlet (d) apertures. This study also investigates the effect of inlet aperture d on Re_c for flow in an SF with abruptly changing apertures (SF‐ACA) using the finite volume method. Earlier numerical and experimental results showed that flow is symmetric in respect to the central plane of the SF‐ACA at small Reynolds number (Re) but becomes asymmetric when Re is sufficiently large. Our simulations show that the value of Re_c decreases with the increasing E, and the relationship between the logarithm of Re_c and E can be described accurately using either a quadratic polynomial function or a logarithmic function. However, the relationship of Re_c and d for a given E value is vague, and Re_c becomes even less sensitive to d when E increases. This study also reveals that the hydraulic gradient (J) and flow velocity (v) follow a super‐linear relationship that can be fitted almost perfectly by the Forchheimer equation. The inertial component (J_i) of J increases monotonically with Re, whereas the viscous component (J_v) of J decreases monotonically with Re. The Re value corresponding to equal inertial and viscous components of J (named as the transitional point Re) decreases when E increases, and such a transitional point Re should be closely related to the critical Reynolds number Re_c, although a rigorous theoretical proof is not yet available. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

宁夏区域精细化温度预报业务平台

介绍以宁夏中尺度数值模式温度预报为基础,以宁夏精细化预报系统温度预报产品为核心,结合自动气象站等多种资料,以图形方式显示、修改和制作宁夏各站逐时温度预报业务平台。该平台以宁夏各地区代表站与该地区其它站之间的回归方程的计算量为依据,在温度预报物理过程不变的情况下,通过修改曲线的方式,完成对大数据量温度预报值的订正。该平台的建成,为制作高时间密度的预报提供了技术支撑。     

Gravimetric studies of Taal Volcano,philippines

Taal Volcano is peculiar in its violent explosivity in spite of its low altitude. The surrounding topographies suggest that the origin of Taal Volcano is either a caldera or a graben structure. To confirm the caldera origin one must search for a vast quantity of caldera ejecta balancing with the depression. As a first step, a gravity survey was carried out on and around Taal Volcano, and high gravity anomalies were lound on Volcano Island. The distribution of the gravities may suggest a graben structure overlying a denser layer of igneous material.     

中国省会城市国际化水平比较研究

城市国际化不仅是一个结果更是一个与其他国际城市逐步接轨的过程,在此过程中,通过与其他城市的物质、文化与信息的交流,实现城市发展利益的最大化。在目前城市国际化比较研究的基础上,针对现有方法的不足,运用因子分析法,进行了分因素排名比较分析和综合得分排名的分类比较分析,最后根据综合得分通过类间距法将所有省会城市分为三类,并提出各类城市在不同城市国际化发展阶段应选择不同的发展策略。