Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from?

Previous works suggest decadal predictions of Sahel rainfall could be skillful. However, the sources of such skill are still under debate. In addition, previous results are based on short validation periods (i.e. less than 50 years). In this work we propose a framework based on multi-linear regression analysis to study the potential sources of skill for predicting Sahel trends several years ahead. We apply it to an extended decadal hindcast performed with the MPI-ESM-LR model that span from 1901 to 2010 with 1 year sampling interval. Our results show that the skill mainly depends on how well we can predict the timing of the global warming (GW), the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and, to a lesser extent, the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation signals, and on how well the system simulates the associated SST and West African rainfall response patterns. In the case of the MPI-ESM-LR decadal extended hindcast, the observed timing is well reproduced only for the GW and AMV signals. However, only the West African rainfall response to the AMV is correctly reproduced. Thus, for most of the lead times the main source of skill in the decadal hindcast of West African rainfall is from the AMV. The GW signal degrades skill because the response of West African rainfall to GW is incorrectly captured. Our results also suggest that initialized decadal predictions of West African rainfall can be further improved by better simulating the response of global SST to GW and AMV. Furthermore, our approach may be applied to understand and attribute prediction skill for other variables and regions.

     

Multivariate Intrinsic Random Functions for Cokriging

In multivariate geostatistics, suppose that we relax the usual second-order-stationarity assumptions and assume that the component processes are intrinsic random functions of general orders. In this article, we introduce a generalized cross-covariance function to describe the spatial cross-dependencies in multivariate intrinsic random functions. A nonparametric method is then proposed for its estimation. Based on this class of generalized cross-covariance functions, we give cokriging equations for multivariate intrinsic random functions in the presence of measurement error. A simulation is presented that demonstrates the accuracy of the proposed nonparametric estimation method. Finally, an application is given to a dataset of plutonium and americium concentrations collected from a region of the Nevada Test Site used for atomic-bomb testing.     

Thermophysical properties of the α–β–γ polymorphs of Mg<Subscript>2</Subscript>SiO<Subscript>4</Subscript>: a computational study

Thermophysical properties of the various polymorphs (i.e. α-, β- and γ) of Mg₂SiO₄ were computed with the CRYSTAL06 code within the framework of CO-LCAO-GTF approach by using the hybrid B3LYP density functional method. Potential wells were calculated through a symmetry preserving, variable cell-shape structure relaxation procedure. Vibrational frequencies were computed at the long-wavelength limit corresponding to the center of the Brillouin zone (k → 0). Thermodynamic properties were estimated through a semiclassical approach that combines B3LYP vibrational frequencies for optic modes and the Kieffer’s model for the dispersion relation of acoustic modes. All computed values except volume (i.e. electronic energy, zero point energy, optical vibrational modes, thermal corrections to internal energy, standard state enthalpy and Gibbs free energy of reaction, bulk modulus and its P and T derivatives, entropy, C _V, C _P) are consistent with available experimental data and/or reasonable estimates. Volumes are slightly overestimated relative to those determined directly by X-ray diffraction. A set of optimized volumetric properties that are consistent with the other semiclassical properties of the phases α, β and γ have been derived by optimization procedure such that the calculated boundaries for the α/β and β/γ equilibria have the best overall agreement with the experimental data for these transitions. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

福建紫金山矿田悦洋银多金属矿床银的赋存状态和沉淀机制

浅成低温热液矿床是世界上银矿的重要矿床类型, 伴生有金铜铅锌等多种金属。银的赋存状态研究可以为矿床资源禀赋、选冶成本以及经济价值的综合评价提供重要的依据。近年来, 矿物自动定量分析系统越来越多地应用到贵金属的赋存状态研究中, 相比传统方法而言其能提供精确定量的矿物学信息。悦洋银多金属矿床位于福建省紫金山矿田, 是典型的浅成低温热液矿床, 是研究银赋存状态的理想选区。通过野外地质调查研究发现, 矿体主要受控于岩性边界和断裂构造, 主要矿石类型为热液角砾岩型和石英脉型。成矿作用可以分为石英-黄铁矿、石英-黄铁矿-黄铜矿、石英-银多金属、石英-碳酸盐等四个阶段, 其中银在石英-银多金属阶段沉淀, 可以进一步划分为石英伊利石硫化物亚阶段和石英冰长石硫化物亚阶段。本文在野外地质调查的基础上, 针对不同的矿石类型使用TIMA(TESCAN Integrated Mineral Analyzer)自动矿物分析系统, 结合显微镜下观察、扫描电镜和电子探针分析手段, 对银的赋存形式和分布情况进行了定量化研究, 根据矿物共生组合对银沉淀机制及成矿过程进行了探讨。研究结果显示, 悦洋矿床中的银90%以上以独立矿物的形式存在, 主要是硫化银和自然银, 且粒径大多在10~50μm之间; 少部分银以次显微包裹体形式存在于黄铜矿中, 或以显微包裹体和类质同相形式存在于黄铁矿和闪锌矿中。成矿热液中银主要以硫氢络合物形式运移, 主成矿期大量的冰长石与银矿物共生表明沸腾作用是主要的沉淀机制。

     

Overprinting porphyry‐type veinlets on the intrusive rocks and phreatomagmatic breccias in the Southwest prospect,southwestern Sto. Tomas II (Philex), Baguio District,Philippines

The Southwest prospect is located at the southwestern periphery of the Sto. Tomas II porphyry copper–gold deposit in the Baguio District, northwestern Luzon, Philippines. The Southwest prospect hosts a copper‐gold mineralization related to a complex of porphyry intrusions, breccia facies, and overlapping porphyry‐type veinlets emplaced within the basement Pugo metavolcanics rocks and conglomerates of the Zigzag Formation. The occurrences of porphyry‐type veinlets and potassic alteration hosted in the complex are thought to be indications of the presence of blind porphyry deposits within the Sto. Tomas II vicinity. The complex is composed of at least four broadly mineralogically similar dioritic intrusive rocks that vary in texture and alteration type and intensity. These intrusions were accompanied with at least five breccia facies that were formed by the explosive brecciation, induced by the magmatic–hydrothermal processes and phreatomagmatic activities during the emplacement of the various intrusions. Hydrothermal alteration assemblages consisting of potassic, chlorite–magnetite, propylitic and sericite–chlorite alteration, and contemporaneous veinlet types were developed on the host rocks. Elevated copper and gold grades correspond to (a) chalcopyrite–bornite assemblage in the potassic alteration in the syn‐mineralization early‐mineralization diorite (EMD) and contemporaneous veinlets and (b) chalcopyrite‐rich mineralization associated with the chalcopyrite–magnetite–chlorite–actinolite±sericite veinlets contemporaneous with the chlorite–magnetite alteration. Erratic remarkable concentrations of gold were also present in the late‐mineralization Late Diorite (LD). High X_Mg of calcic amphiboles (>0.60) in the intrusive rocks indicate that the magmas have been oxidizing since the early stages of crystallization, while a gap in the composition of Al between the rim and the cores of the calcic amphiboles in the EMD and LD indicate decompression at some point during the crystallization of these intrusive rocks. Fluid inclusion microthermometry suggests the trapping of immiscible fluids that formed the potassic alteration, associated ore mineralization, and sheeted quartz veinlets. The corresponding formation conditions of the shallower and deeper quartz veinlets were estimated at pressures of 50 and 30 MPa and temperatures of 554 and 436°C at depths of 1.9 and 1.1 km. Temperature data from the chlorite indicate that the chalcopyrite‐rich mineralization associated with the chlorite–magnetite alteration was formed at a much lower temperature (ca. 290°C) than the potassic alteration. Evidence from the vein offsetting matrix suggests multiple intrusions within the EMD, despite the K‐Ar ages of the potassic alteration in EMD and hornblende in the LD of about the same age at 3.5 ± 0.3 Ma. The K‐Ar age of the potassic alteration was likely to be thermally reset as a result of the overprinting hydrothermal alteration. The constrained K‐Ar ages also indicate earlier formed intrusive rocks in the Southwest prospect, possibly coeval to the earliest “dark diorite” intrusion in the Sto. Tomas II deposit. In addition, the range of δ³⁴S of sulfide minerals from +1.8‰ to +5.1‰ in the Southwest prospect closely overlaps with the rest of the porphyry copper and epithermal deposits in the Sto. Tomas II deposit and its vicinity. This indicates that the sulfides may have formed from a homogeneous source of the porphyry copper deposits and epithermal deposits in the Sto. Tomas II orebody and its vicinity. The evidence presented in this work proves that the porphyry copper‐type veinlets and the adjacent potassic alteration in the Southwest prospect are formed earlier and at a shallower level in contrast with the other porphyry deposits in the Baguio District.     

安徽庐枞盆地酸性蚀变岩帽地质地球化学特征研究

酸性蚀变岩帽是浅成低温热液系统演化的产物,形成于酸性高氧化性流体的化学条件下;在高硫化型浅成低温热液金矿床中广泛发育,是该类矿床的显著识别特征。通过对酸性蚀变岩帽的野外地质特征、矿物共生组合和地球化学特征研究,能较好阐明浅成低温成矿热液系统的特征、性质、发生和发展演化及成矿作用过程。庐枞矿集区是长江中下游成矿带重要的矿集区之一,盆地内广泛发育以明矾石为特征蚀变矿物的酸性蚀变岩帽,面积超过30km~2,指示盆地内高硫化浅成低温热液系统的存在。目前为止,前期工作主要针对明矾石矿床地质特征和明矾石资源储量进行,该酸性蚀变岩帽的地质地球化学特征研究尚未开展。本次工作通过对酸性蚀变岩帽系统的野外采样、全岩地球化学分析和短波红外光谱测试分析技术(PNIRS测试)分析,确定其主要赋存在砖桥组火山岩中,组成矿物为石英、明矾石、高岭石、地开石,此外有少量绢云母、伊利石、珍珠陶土、叶蜡石、褐铁矿,极少数的叶腊石和黄钾铁矾等,在钻孔深部存在浸染状和半自形粒状黄铁矿。由于受到地表风化剥蚀和不同热热中心的影响,水平方向从矾山明矾石矿床向外围发育石英+明矾石带、石英+高岭石/地开石+明矾石带、石英+高岭石/地开石带、硅化带以及最外围的泥质带即高岭石±绢云母±伊利石带。根据酸性蚀变岩帽的矿物组合和主量元素特征,可将其分为三类:硅质蚀变岩、明矾石蚀变岩和粘土蚀变岩。硅质蚀变岩中SiO_2含量发生明显的富集作用,其余主量元素(K_2O、Na_2O、Al_2O_3、Fe_2O_3、P_2O5)含量显著降低;明矾石蚀变岩和粘土蚀变岩具有相似的地球化学特征,SiO_2、Al_2O_3、Fe_2O_3、P_2O_5元素含量范围变大,K_2O和Na_2O含量降低,且Na_2O降低更加明显;而钛为不活泼元素,在岩石发生蚀变过程中TiO_2含量变化很小。矾山地区的酸性蚀变岩帽的产状、蚀变类型、地球化学特征受构造和地层的双重控制。     

The Effects of Climatic Variability on US Irrigation Adoption

This paper contributes to the literature underscoring the importance of climatic variance by developing a framework for incorporating the means and tails of the distributions of rainfall and temperature into empirical models of agricultural production. The methodology is applied to estimate the impact of climate change on the discrete choice decision to adopt irrigation since it is an important adaptation to climate change. We develop a discrete choice model for the decision to install irrigation capacity that captures the effects of both climate means and extremes. Climatic means and frequencies of climatic events in the upper tails of the temperature and precipitation distributions are used to estimate the parameters of a normal distribution for temperature and a Weibull distribution for precipitation. Using estimates from a probit model, we examine the independent effects of changing climatic mean and variance on the probability of adopting irrigation. Increasing the mean temperature, holding variance constant, shifts the entire distribution toward warmer temperatures—increasing the frequency of extreme temperatures. For precipitation, the specification captures the separate effects of mean rainfall, frequency of rainfall, and frequency of extreme events. The results show that the tails of the temperature and precipitation distributions, not the means, are the dominant climatic determinants in irrigation adoption. The results also show that water availability, soil characteristics, farm size and operator demographics are important determinants of irrigation.     

Optimal filtering high-resolution seismic reflection data using a weighted-mode empirical mode decomposition operator

Gas-hydrate related processes in deep-water marine settings exist on spatial scales that challenge conventional seismic reflection profiling to successfully image them. The conventional approach to acoustic identification of buried hydrates is to use advanced, cost-prohibitive survey techniques and highly customized software to define subsurface structure wherein compositional changes may be modeled and/or interpreted. This study adopts a different approach derived from recent theoretical advancements in signal processing. The method consists in optimal filtering high resolution, single-channel seismic reflection data using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). The time series is decomposed in sub-components and the noisy portions are suppressed adopting the technique that we referred as Weighted Mode(s) EMD. The optimal filtering greatly improves the resolution and fidelity of the seismic data set.High Resolution single channel seismic profiles, acquired over a carbonate\hydrates site in the northern Gulf of Mexico, manipulated in such way, show a complex, shallow subsurface, and suggest potential evidence for buried gas hydrates.