Biotic controls on shallow translational landslides

In undisturbed tropical montane rainforests massive organic layers accommodate the majority of roots and only a small fraction of roots penetrate the mineral soil. We investigated the contribution of vegetation to slope stability in such environments by modifying a standard model for slope stability to include an organic layer with distinct mechanical properties. The importance of individual model parameters was evaluated using detailed measurements of soil and vegetation properties to reproduce the observed depth of 11 shallow landslides in the Andes of southern Ecuador. By distinguishing mineral soil, organic layer and above‐ground biomass, it is shown that in this environment vegetation provides a destabilizing effect mainly due to its contribution to the mass of the organic layer (up to 973 t ha^{? 1} under wet conditions). Sensitivity analysis shows that the destabilizing effect of the mass of soil and vegetation can only be effective on slopes steeper than 37.9°. This situation applies to 36% of the study area. Thus, on the steep slopes of this megadiverse ecosystem, the mass of the growing forest promotes landsliding, which in turn promotes a new cycle of succession. This feedback mechanism is worth consideration in further investigations of the impact of landslides on plant diversity in similar environments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dam risk assessment based on univariate versus bivariate statistical approaches: a case study for Argentina

Abstract

Considering floods as multivariate events allows a better statistical representation of their complexity. In this work the relevance of multivariate analysis of floods for designing or assessing the safety of hydraulic structures is discussed. A flood event is characterized by its peak flow and volume. The dependence between the variables is modelled with a copula. One thousand random pairs of variables are transformed to hydrographs, applying the Beta distribution function. Synthetic floods are routed through a reservoir to assess the risk of overtopping a dam. The resulting maximum water levels are compared to estimations considering the peak flow and volume separately. The analysis is performed using daily flows observed in the River Agrio in Neuquén Province, Argentina, a catchment area of 7300 km². The bivariate approach results in higher maximum water level values. Therefore the multivariate approach should be preferred for the estimation of design variables.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi     

Impact of GOCE Level 1b data reprocessing on GOCE-only and combined gravity field models

The reprocessing of Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) Level 1b gradiometer and star tracker data applying upgraded processing methods leads to improved gravity gradient and attitude products. The impact of these enhanced products on GOCE-only and combined GOCE+GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) gravity field models is analyzed in detail, based on a two-months data period of Nov. and Dec. 2009, and applying a rigorous gravity field solution of full normal equations. Gravity field models that are based only on GOCE gradiometer data benefit most, especially in the low to medium degree range of the harmonic spectrum, but also for specific groups of harmonic coefficients around order 16 and its integer multiples, related to the satellite’s revolution frequency. However, due to the fact that also (near-)sectorial coefficients are significantly improved up to high degrees (which is caused mainly by an enhanced second derivative in Y direction of the gravitational potential — V_YY), also combined gravity field models, including either GOCE orbit information or GRACE data, show improvements of more than 10% compared to the use of original gravity gradient data. Finally, the resulting gradiometry-only, GOCE-only and GOCE+GRACE global gravity field models have been externally validated by independent GPS/levelling observations in selected regions. In conclusion, it can be expected that several applications will benefit from the better quality of data and resulting GOCE and combined gravity field models.     

Modelling the spatial allocation of second-generation feedstock (lignocellulosic crops) in Europe

This paper presents a modelling approach for the spatial allocation of second-generation feedstock (lignocellulosic crops) under a reference policy scenario in European Union of 28 Member State (EU-28). The land-use modelling platform (LUMP) was used in order to simulate the land-use changes from 2010 to 2050. Within the LUMP, the land demand for these lignocellulosic energy crops was derived from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact analysis model. Suitability maps were generated for two main energy crop groups: herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic crops, using multicriteria analysis techniques. Biophysical factors (climate, soil properties and topographical aspects), natural and artificial constraints and location-specific land categories were defined as relevant components within the platform. A sensitivity analysis determined the most influential factors to be temperature, precipitation, length of growing period and number of frost-free days. The results of the modelling exercise in the LUMP reflect the significant renewable energy contribution from energy crops in EU-28, which was estimated to be between 2.3 EJ/year (in 2020) and 6.3 EJ/year (in 2050), accounting for 2.3% and 9.6% of total energy consumption in the EU-28. The results of the allocation were aggregated at regional level to analyse trends. Regions with considerably high demand were identified in Germany, the United Kingdom and Poland.     

AVA seismic reflectivity analysis in carbon dioxide accumulations: Sensitivity to CO2 phase and saturation

Seismic monitoring of sequestered carbon dioxide (CO₂) in underground deposits is a matter of growing importance. The subsurface monitoring of this greenhouse gas is possible due to the marked contrast between the physical properties of natural reservoir fluids and those of carbon dioxide after the injection. This technique makes necessary the investigation of appropriate seismic indicators to link seismic attributes to petrophysical properties, composition and state of the rock as well as pore-fluid type and in-situ physical conditions. With this motivation in mind, we use a Biot–Gassmann formulation to model the theoretical P-wave amplitude reflection coefficients vs. angle of incidence in the seismic range when a planar P-wave strikes the interface between a caprock and a porous sandstone which has its pore space saturated by a mixture of CO₂ with brine or oil at different states (supercritical, liquid and gas). The effects of dissolution of CO₂ in oil and the existence of a saturation threshold, above which a free CO₂ phase develops, are included in the computations. Attention is particularly focused on the sensitivity of the classic best-fit amplitude variations with angle coefficients, to different degrees of CO₂ saturation. We conclude from this analysis that the changes in seismic AVA attributes between 30 and 40 degrees can be useful to infer bounds on the CO₂ saturation degree, to detect the presence of immiscible CO₂ phase and, in some cases, to infer the physical state of the accumulations.     

Amount and reactivity of dissolved organic matter export are affected by land cover change from old-growth to second-growth forests in headwater ecosystems

Headwater forest ecosystems of the western USA generate a large portion of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) transported in streams across North America. Land cover changes that alter forest structure and species composition affect the quantity and composition of DOM transferred to aquatic ecosystems. Clear-cut harvesting affects ~1% of the forest area of North America annually, leaving most western forests in varying stages of regrowth and the total area of old-growth forest is decreasing. The consequences of this widespread management practice on watershed carbon cycling remain unknown. We investigated the role of land cover change, because of clear-cut harvesting, from mixed-species old-growth to lodgepole pine-dominated second-growth forest on the character and reactivity of hillslope DOM exports. We evaluated inputs of DOM from litter leachates and export of DOM collected at the base of trenched hillslopes during a 3-year period (2016–2018) at the Fraser Experimental Forest in north-central Colorado, USA. Dissolved organic carbon and total dissolved nitrogen were higher in lateral subsurface flow draining old- versus second-growth forest. Fluorescence spectroscopy showed that the DOM exported from the old-growth forest was more heterogeneous and aromatic and that proteinaceous, microbially processed DOM components were more prevalent in the second-growth forest. Biological oxygen demand assays revealed much lower microbial metabolism of DOM in litter leachate and subsurface exports from the old-growth forest relative to second growth. Old-growth and second-growth forests are co-mingled in managed ecosystems, and our findings demonstrate that land cover change from a mixture of conifer species to lodgepole pine dominance influences DOM inputs that can increase the reactivity of DOM transferred from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems.     

Heavy metal concentrations and biomarkers of oxidative stress in native mussels (Mytilus edulis chilensis) from Beagle Channel coast (Tierra del Fuego, Argentina)

The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of oxidative stress biomarkers of pollution in native mussels Mytilus edulis chilensis from the Beagle Channel. Spatial and seasonal variations of catalase, glutathione-S-transferase and lipid peroxidation in gills and digestive gland were analyzed in relation to environmental parameters, heavy metals in sediment and in tissue. Four sites with anthropogenic impact and a control site were selected and monitored during the four seasons of 2007. We found significant differences among sites in concentrations of dissolved nutrients and heavy metals in sediments, with the highest values recorded at sites with anthropogenic pressure. Different patterns were observed between concentrations of metals in tissues and in sediments suggesting differences in bioavailability. There were also significant differences in biomarker responses among sites, despite the strong seasonal variability. Our results showed relatively moderate levels of pollution in the study area as a result of urban influences.     

GOCE gravitational gradiometry

GOCE is the first gravitational gradiometry satellite mission. Gravitational gradiometry is the measurement of the second derivatives of the gravitational potential. The nine derivatives form a 3 × 3 matrix, which in geodesy is referred to as Marussi tensor. From the basic properties of the gravitational field, it follows that the matrix is symmetric and trace free. The latter property corresponds to Laplace equation, which gives the theoretical foundation of its representation in terms of spherical harmonic or Fourier series. At the same time, it provides the most powerful quality check of the actual measured gradients. GOCE gradiometry is based on the principle of differential accelerometry. As the satellite carries out a rotational motion in space, the accelerometer differences contain angular effects that must be removed. The GOCE gradiometer provides the components V _xx , V _yy , V _zz and V _xz with high precision, while the components V _xy and V _yz are of low precision, all expressed in the gradiometer reference frame. The best performance is achieved inside the measurement band from 5 × 10^–3 to 0.1 Hz. At lower frequencies, the noise increases with 1/f and is superimposed by cyclic distortions, which are modulated from the orbit and attitude motion into the gradient measurements. Global maps with the individual components show typical patterns related to topographic and tectonic features. The maps are separated into those for ascending and those for descending tracks as the components are expressed in the instrument frame. All results are derived from the measurements of the period from November to December 2009. While the components V _xx and V _yy reach a noise level of about \({10\;\rm{\frac{mE}{\sqrt{Hz}}}}\), that of V _zz and V _xz is about \({20\; \rm{\frac{mE}{\sqrt{Hz}}}}\). The cause of the latter’s higher noise is not yet understood. This is also the reason why the deviation from the Laplace condition is at the \({20 \;\rm{\frac{mE}{\sqrt{Hz}}}}\) level instead of the originally planned \({11\;\rm{\frac{mE}{\sqrt{Hz}}}}\). Each additional measurement cycle will improve the accuracy and to a smaller extent also the resolution of the spherical harmonic coefficients derived from the measured gradients.     

Analysis of the non-linearity in the pattern and time evolution of El Niño southern oscillation

In this study the observed non-linearity in the spatial pattern and time evolution of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is analyzed. It is shown that ENSO skewness is not only a characteristic of the amplitude of events (El Niños being stronger than La Niñas) but also of the spatial pattern and time evolution. It is demonstrated that these non-linearities can be related to the non-linear response of the zonal winds to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. It is shown in observations as well as in coupled model simulations that significant differences in the spatial pattern between positive (El Niño) versus negative (La Niña) and strong versus weak events exist, which is mostly describing the difference between central and east Pacific events. Central Pacific events tend to be weak El Niño or strong La Niña events. In turn east Pacific events tend to be strong El Niño or weak La Niña events. A rotation of the two leading empirical orthogonal function modes illustrates that for both El Niño and La Niña extreme events are more likely than expected from a normal distribution. The Bjerknes feedbacks and time evolution of strong ENSO events in observations as well as in coupled model simulations also show strong asymmetries, with strong El Niños being forced more strongly by zonal wind than by thermocline depth anomalies and are followed by La Niña events. In turn strong La Niña events are preceded by El Niño events and are more strongly forced by thermocline depth anomalies than by wind anomalies. Further, the zonal wind response to sea surface temperature anomalies during strong El Niño events is stronger and shifted to the east relative to strong La Niña events, supporting the eastward shifted El Niño pattern and the asymmetric time evolution. Based on the simplified hybrid coupled RECHOZ model of ENSO it can be shown that the non-linear zonal wind response to SST anomalies causes the asymmetric forcings of ENSO events. This also implies that strong El Niños are mostly wind driven and less predictable and strong La Niñas are mostly thermocline depth driven and better predictable, which is demonstrated by a set of 100 perfect model forecast ensembles.     

228Ra, 226Ra, 224Ra and 223Ra in potential sources and sinks of land-derived material in the German Bight of the North Sea: implications for the use of radium as a tracer

Activities of the naturally occurring radium nuclides ²²⁸Ra, ²²⁶Ra, ²²⁴Ra and ²²³Ra were determined in waters of the open German Bight and adjacent nearshore areas in the North Sea, in order to explore the potential use of radium isotopes as natural tracers of land–ocean interaction in an environment characterised by extensive tidal flats, as well as riverine and groundwater influx. Data collected at various tidal phases from the Weser Estuary (²²⁸Ra: 46.3 ± 4.6; ²²⁶Ra: 17.1 ± 1.1; ²²⁴Ra: 26.1 ± 8.2 to 36.5 ± 6.1; ²²³Ra: 1.8 ± 0.1 to 4.0 ± 0.4), tidal flats near Sahlenburg (²²⁸Ra: 39.3 ± 3.8 to 46.0 ± 4.5; ²²⁶Ra: 15.5 ± 1.5 to 16.5 ± 1.7; ²²⁴Ra: 34.3 ± 2.2 to 85.3 ± 6.3; ²²³Ra: 3.6 ± 0.5 to 8.0 ± 1.2), freshwater seeps on tidal flats near Sahlenburg (²²⁸Ra: 42.1 ± 4.1; ²²⁶Ra: 21.3 ± 2.2; ²²⁴Ra: 5.1 ± 0.9; ²²³Ra: 2.6 ± 1.3) and also in permanently inundated parts of the North Sea (²²⁸Ra: 23.0 ± 2.3 to 28.2 ± 2.8; ²²⁶Ra: 8.2 ± 0.8 to 11.8 ± 1.2; ²²⁴Ra: 3.1 ± 1.0 to 10.1 ± 0.9; ²²³Ra: 0.1 ± 0.02 to 0.9 ± 0.05; units: disintegrations per minute per 100 kg water sample) reveal that, except for the fresh groundwater, the potential end-members of nearshore water mass mixing have quite similar radium signatures, excluding a simple discrimination between the sources. However, the decreasing activities of the short-lived ²²⁴Ra and ²²³Ra isotopes recorded towards the island of Helgoland in the central German Bight show a potential to constrain fluxes of land-derived material to the open North Sea. The largest source for all radium isotopes is generally found on the vast tidal flats and in the Weser Estuary. Future work could meaningfully combine this so-called radium quartet approach with investigations of radon activity. Indeed, preliminary data from a tidal flat site with fresh groundwater seepage reveal a ²²²Rn signal that is clearly lower in seawater.