A novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction through data assimilation techniques

Computational Geosciences - Anthropogenic land subsidence can be evaluated and predicted by numerical models, which are often built over deterministic analyses. However, uncertainties and...     

Long-term monitoring of the behavior of a talus-colluvium deposit

Landslides - This article describes the behavior of a talus-colluvium deposit up to 70-m thick located in the Serra dos Orgaos, Rio de Janeiro/RJ, Brazil. The monitoring dataset of 13 years...     

Metal-enriched nanoparticles and black carbon: A perspective from the Brazil railway system air pollution

Having a better understanding of air pollutants in railway systems is crucial to ensure a clean public transport. This study measured, for the first time in Brazil, nanoparticles (NPs) and black carbon (BC) on two ground-level platforms and inside trains of the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre (MAPA). An intense sampling campaign during thirteen consecutive months was carried out and the chemical composition of NPs was examined by advanced microscopy techniques. The results showed that highest concentrations of the pollutants occur in colder seasons and influenced by variables such as frequency of the trains and passenger densities. Also, internal and external sources of pollution at the stations were identified. The predominance of NPs enriched with metals that increase oxidative stress like Cd, Fe, Pb, Cr, Zn, Ni, V, Hg, Sn, and Ba both on the platforms and inside trains, including Fe-minerals as hematite and magnetite, represents a critical risk to the health of passengers and employees of the system. This interdisciplinary and multi-analytical study aims to provide an improved understanding of reported adverse health effects induced by railway system aerosols.     

Modelling size effect on rock aggregates strength using a DEM bonded-cell model

Empirical evidence has shown that particle breakage affects the mechanical behaviour of granular materials. The source of this mechanism takes place at the particle scale, and the main consequence on the macromechanical behaviour is increasing compressibility. Due to the inverse correlation between particle size and particle crushing strength, coarse rockfill materials are particularly vulnerable to mechanical degradation due to particle breakage. However, such coarse materials do not fit in standard laboratory devices, and the alternative of large sample testing is usually unavailable or too expensive. Alternatively, recent works have proposed multi-scale approaches using the discrete element method (DEM) to carry out numerical testing of coarse crushable materials, although few studies have focused on size effects. This article presents the application of a DEM bonded-cell model to study particle size-strength correlation on angular rock aggregates. Each particle is modelled by a cluster of perfectly rigid polyhedral cells with Mohr–Coulomb contact law. Constant cell density within particles implies that the presence of potential fragmentation planes increases with size. Therefore, particle strength decreases with size. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis was carried out through 1477 particle crushing simulations in a given particle size. Based on published experimental data on calcareous rock aggregates, part of the simulations were used for calibration, and 97 additional simulations of a coarser size fraction were performed for validation. The results show a good agreement with the empirical data in terms of size effect and data scatter through Weibull statistics.

     

An Automatic Well Planner for Complex Well Trajectories

Mathematical Geosciences - A data-driven automatic well planner procedure is implemented to develop complex well trajectories by efficiently adapting to near-well reservoir properties and geometry....     

Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy

Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect.

Key policy insights

• For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.

• The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.

• Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.

     

Topographic effects observed at Amatrice hill during the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence

The estimate of seismic site effects by experimental approaches is based on different assumptions aimed at simplifying the complex actual site conditions and related uncertainties.However,the reliability of the results can increase if the experimental data is focused on quite strong seismic sequences and the on-site acquisition of a large number of signals is deemed strategic for the assessment of the expected phenomena.Based on these considerations,the ground motion at the Red Zone sector of Amatrice hill,violently struck by the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence,was analyzed via an observational approach.A large set of weak motions(moment magnitude Mw 2.5-3.9)was analyzed in this study by means of standard(SSR)and horizontal to vertical(HVSR)spectral ratio techniques.The results from the experimental analysis of the site effects by using weak motion and noise signals show a significant amplification at the top of Amatrice hill with a remarkable polarization of the motion and changes in spectral shapes according to the topographic setting of the relief.     

Evaluation of the geometric stability and the accuracy potential of digital cameras — Comparing mechanical stabilisation versus parameterisation

Recent tests on the geometric stability of several digital cameras that were not designed for photogrammetric applications have shown that the accomplished accuracies in object space are either limited or that the accuracy potential is not exploited to the fullest extent. A total of 72 calibrations were calculated with four different software products for eleven digital camera models with different hardware setups, some with mechanical fixation of one or more parts. The calibration procedure was chosen in accord to a German guideline for evaluation of optical 3D measuring systems [VDI/VDE, VDI/VDE 2634 Part 1, 2002. Optical 3D Measuring Systems–Imaging Systems with Point-by-point Probing. Beuth Verlag, Berlin]. All images were taken with ringflashes which was considered a standard method for close-range photogrammetry. In cases where the flash was mounted to the lens, the force exerted on the lens tube and the camera mount greatly reduced the accomplished accuracy. Mounting the ringflash to the camera instead resulted in a large improvement of accuracy in object space. For standard calibration best accuracies in object space were accomplished with a Canon EOS 5D and a 35 mm Canon lens where the focusing tube was fixed with epoxy (47  μm maximum absolute length measurement error in object space). The fixation of the Canon lens was fairly easy and inexpensive resulting in a sevenfold increase in accuracy compared with the same lens type without modification. A similar accuracy was accomplished with a Nikon D3 when mounting the ringflash to the camera instead of the lens (52  μm maximum absolute length measurement error in object space). Parameterisation of geometric instabilities by introduction of an image variant interior orientation in the calibration process improved results for most cameras. In this case, a modified Alpa 12 WA yielded the best results (29  μm maximum absolute length measurement error in object space). Extending the parameter model with FiBun software to model not only an image variant interior orientation, but also deformations in the sensor domain of the cameras, showed significant improvements only for a small group of cameras. The Nikon D3 camera yielded the best overall accuracy (25  μm maximum absolute length measurement error in object space) with this calibration procedure indicating at the same time the presence of image invariant error in the sensor domain. Overall, calibration results showed that digital cameras can be applied for an accurate photogrammetric survey and that only a little effort was sufficient to greatly improve the accuracy potential of digital cameras.     

The impact of overfishing and El Niño on the condition factor and reproductive success of Peruvian hake, Merluccius gayi peruanus

In this study we examine physiological responses of Peruvian hake (Merluccius gayi peruanus) to changes in their population structure and physical environment during the period 1971–2004. In particular, we assess the relative investment of energy in growth and/or reproduction of small (20–35 cm) and large (35–50 cm) hake. We calculated the (i) condition (Fulton’s K), (ii) gonad and (iii) gut fullness indices for 42,761 female hakes sampled from commercial landings; these indices indicate fish somatic, reproductive and feeding condition, respectively. Using Generalized Additive Models we then examined potential relationships between these indices and sea surface temperature anomalies and date. Drastic energy exhaustion and a decrease in female hake fecundity were observed during El Niño events. The long-term trend showed a general increase in condition factor and a decrease in gonad index for large hake between 1971 and 2004. Small hake exhibited a different trend with an increase in reproductive activity, which was accompanied by an earlier maturation. We hypothesise that the observed low investment of energy in reproduction by large female hake might be related to the lack of large males, due to a sex-selective fishery and the impact of El Niño. We suggest that fishing diminished hake reproductive capacity, modified the sex ratio in favour of females and increased population vulnerability to environmental stress, in particular to the El Niño. The impact of multidecadal variability and predators like the squid, Dosidicus gigas, remain unresolved until longer time series become available.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.