Application of a Delay-difference model for the stock assessment of southern Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga)

Delay-difference models are intermediate between simple surplus-production models and complicated age-structured models. Such intermediate models are more efficient and require less data than age-structured models. In this study, a delay-difference model was applied to fit catch and catch per unit effort(CPUE) data(1975–2011) of the southern Atlantic albacore(Thunnus alalunga) stock. The proposed delay-difference model captures annual fluctuations in predicted CPUE data better than Fox model. In a Monte Carlo simulation, white noises(CVs) were superimposed on the observed CPUE data at four levels. Relative estimate error was then calculated to compare the estimated results with the true values of parameters α and β in Ricker stock-recruitment model and the catchability coefficient q. α is more sensitive to CV than β and q. We also calculated an 80% percentile confidence interval of the maximum sustainable yield(MSY, 21756 t to 23408 t; median 22490 t) with the delay-difference model. The yield of the southern Atlantic albacore stock in 2011 was 24122 t, and the estimated ratios of catch against MSY for the past seven years were approximately 1.0. We suggest that care should be taken to protect the albacore fishery in the southern Atlantic Ocean. The proposed delay-difference model provides a good fit to the data of southern Atlantic albacore stock and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional albacore stock.     

Modelling sustainable urban growth in a rapidly urbanising region using a fuzzy-constrained cellular automata approach

This article presents an application of a fuzzy-constrained cellular automata model to simulate the spatio-temporal processes of urban growth in the rapidly growing Gold Coast City in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Urban growth has been captured in the model as a continuous process in space and over time, which has been affected by a set of primary and secondary transition rules. The primary transition rules deal with the propensity of a local area for development and the impact of its neighbouring cells on such development, while the secondary transition rules reflect the influences of environmental and institutional factors on urban growth. Application of the model demonstrates its re-applicability to different regions and the effectiveness of the cellular automata technique in studying urban dynamics. It also provides tools to explore sustainable urban growth options under different socio-environmental and planning control factors. A sustainable urban future of the region is achievable if development is managed to maintain a balance amongst ecological conservation, economic growth and the contemporary Australian lifestyle.     

Acoustic experimental study of two types of rock from the Tibetan Plateau under the condition of freeze-thaw cycles

Under the condition of freeze-thaw cycles, two types of rocks (granite and andesite), used as slope protection for the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, were tested according to the special climatic conditions in the Tibetan Plateau, and their various damage processes in appearance were carefully observed. Observation results show that damage of andesite was more serious than that of granite. Using an acoustic instrument, ultrasonic velocity was tested. The changing trends of velocity with the number of freeze-thaw cycles were analyzed, and the freeze-thaw cycle damaging the physical and mechanical properties of rocks can be seen. According to the changing trends of ultrasonic velocity with the number of freeze-thaw cycles, mechanical parameters of rocks, such as dynamic elasticity modulus, Poisson’s ratio, and dynamic bulk modulus were analyzed. It is found that they all have declining trends as the number of freeze-thaw cycles increases, and in particular, when the cycle number reaches a certain extent, the Poisson’s ratio of rocks begins to become negative.     

长江经济带城乡居民福祉测度及其差异

通过构建城乡居民客观发展指数、主观幸福感指数和福祉差异系数,分析了2005-2015年长江经济带城镇、乡村居民福祉水平及其差距的动态变化过程和空间差异,探讨其影响因素与作用机制.结果表明:1)长江经济带及各省城乡居民福祉均呈上升趋势,区域城镇和乡村居民福祉指数分别由2005年的0.6653、0.5704提高至2015年...     

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall events in Jakarta

Natural Hazards - Jakarta is vulnerable to flooding and extreme rainfall events are always the main cause of the occurrence of heavy flood events with loss of life and property. The flood in...     

Isotopic and hydrochemical data to restrict the origin of the groundwater in the Badain Jaran Desert,Northern China

Despite its extreme aridity, the Badain Jaran Desert is rich in groundwater. In the southeastern part of the desert, it is characterized by coexistence of high megadunes and a great number of lakes. Deuterium and oxygen 18 isotope compositions as well as hydrochemistry of groundwater, lake water, soil water and river water were investigated in detail to gain an insight into their relationships and the origin of the ground-water. The results show that the groundwater and the lake water are genetically related, but unrelated to local precipitation and the leakage of Heine River at northern slope of Qilian mountain. δD and δ¹⁸O values of deep soil water (lower than 40 cm) and groundwater plot on the same evaporation line E11, which shows that they have the same recharge source. The point of intersection between E11 and LMWL suggests that the groundwater originates from the water resource which has a weighted mean value that is lighter by some 6‰ δ¹⁸O than the local precipitation in Badain Jaran Desert. ³H data of water samples shows that the groundwater in Badain Jaran Desert originates from the water recharged after the nuclear test. The deep fault zone underground maybe the water circulation channel based on Helium analysis of groundwater. The result has guiding significance to rational exploitation and utilization of the local groundwater.     

沙拐枣属(Calligonum L.)植物物候对长期气温变化的响应

由新疆维吾尔自治区气象信息中心提供的1977—2006年吐鲁番气象资料统计得知:近29年气候有变暖趋势,线性变暖速率为每10年0.72℃,29年来吐鲁番地区年平均气温共上升2.06℃。结合吐鲁番沙漠植物园沙拐枣属植物的物候观测积累资料,分析了4个组的芽膨胀、开始展叶、同化枝开始变色、同化枝初落的时间变化趋势及其与温度变化的响应关系。结果表明:(1)1977年以来,沙拐枣属(Calligonum L.)植物刺果组(Sect.Medusa Sosk.et Alexandr)物候期最晚;同化枝开始变色为泡果组(Sect.Calliphysa(Fisch.et Mey.)Borszcz)晚于翅果组;其他3种物候期中,泡果组物候期最早,基翅组(Sect.Calligonum)和翅果组(Sect.Pterococcus(Pall.)Borszcz)均居中。4个组的芽膨胀和开始展叶时间大部分呈提前趋势,同化枝开始变色和同化枝初落时间呈推后趋势。(2)4个组的芽膨胀与年平均气温、春季气温呈显著负相关(p0.05)。年平均气温每升高1℃,泡果组、刺果组、基翅组、翅果组的芽膨胀时间分别提前4.5d、4.3d、4.1d、8.3d;同化枝开始变色和同化枝初落时间变化不明显。芽膨胀对温度变化的响应程度显著大于同化枝开始变色和同化枝初落。     

基于DERF的SD方法预测月降水和极端降水日数

针对动力气候模式对区域或更小空间尺度内的日降水预测技巧偏低的问题,应用最优子集回归 (OSR) 方法对国家气候中心业务化的月动力气候模式 (DERF) 输出的高度场、风场和海平面气压场进行降尺度处理用于降水预测,旨在提高预测准确率。1982—2006年交叉检验结果表明：OSR方法能显著提高降水预测技巧,其中11~40 d改善效果最为显著。在此基础上,应用一步法和两步法两种统计降尺度方法预测极端降水日数,交叉检验结果表明:两种方法均优于随机预测,冬季两步法预测技巧略高于一步法,夏季一步法略优于两步法。综合认为OSR,OSR结合随机天气发生器 (WG) 两种统计降尺度方法对月尺度降水或极端降水日数的预测均具有较高的技巧,可作为短期气候预测的重要参考信息。     

利用混合法构建三维数字岩心(英文)

在弹性波有三维数字岩心描述了岩石的微观孔隙结构。X射线CT扫描是获取三维数字岩心最准确和直接的方法,但实验成本高。本文结合沉积过程模拟和模拟退火算法,提出了重建三维数字岩心的混合法,基于岩石二维图像重建三维数字岩心。利用岩石颗粒沉积算法构建初始数字岩心,作为模拟退火算法的初始状态。运用模拟退火算法调整岩石颗粒和孔隙的相对位置,使三维数字岩心与岩心二维图像具有相似的自相关函数,从而建立三维数字岩心。与传统模拟退火算法相比,该方法计算时间明显减小。运用局部孔隙度理论定量比较了重建数字岩心和岩心X射线微CT图像,两种数字岩心具有相似的均质性和孔隙连通性。利用有限元方法和格子玻尔兹曼方法分别模拟了重建三维数字岩心的地层因素和渗透率,数值模拟结果与实验结果相符。相比传统模拟退火算法,混合法重建数字岩心的传导特性更接近真实岩心的传导特性。     

岩石化探样中微量铀 钍的XRFA法测定

本文提出以粉末样品直接压饼法测定岩石化探样品中的微量U,Th,其方法简便、快速,适用于各类地质样品,尤其是岩石化探样品测量。